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I foresee increased interest in a more socialist system, but what do you think we will actually get? Enough to keep the unemployed mollified in poverty, while the rich grow insanely richer?
I agree actually. I expect a lot more of a socialist system, and then as the benefits truly start coming in....I expect it to go massively libertarian. And in all honesty I think that order is what will save us as a country,and as a people.
I view libertarianism as the sort of thing thats doable when a individual CAN be completely 100% reliant on themselves. When that occurs, its time for libertarianism.
When I think of the masses living in "poverty" it isn't suffering. Most likely there will be less complaining and dissatisfaction than there is now. Food and a comfortable box to live in, along with full cyberspace access and good VR equipment... endless entertainment. Most will opt for high density living (which will also be the most efficient and cheapest) so if you do venture out into the "real" world there will be plenty of distraction and stimulation. No need for a car or even public transportation, since you don't have a job to go to. I think most will spend the majority of their waking hours hooked into VR environments.
There will be classes. The growing group of useless, topping out at around 90+% before they die off. Most of the rest that are skilled, talented, and enhanced enough to be useful, who live very well... and a small fraction of a % that live like sci-fi royalty and own everything and everyone. 100 years from now the planet may be a wonderful place for the humans who are still alive.
Hmmmmm....When I have had conversations with Libertarians, I often come to the point of realizing that their form of government ideas are awesome....and completely unrealistic for our current world.
And as I look at whats coming up I suspect that we will find issues with capitalism that will get us to move to a more socialist government for a period. I suspect this will occur as a result of the large scale unemployment that will occur. For a period socialism is what will keep things working.
Then as resources begins to pour in faster then even those at the top can use, a backlash against socialism will occur, with people pushing for more and more liberty. And with the advances in resources being available....libertarianism is doable.
We'll do it all messed up of course. But we will muddle through.
Back in the 1950's a comic book came out from Goldkey comics called "Magnus Robot Fighter". It's a Sci Fi depiction of the future when the robots have taken over. The robots learned to despise the humans and were putting them into slavery or just killing them because they are just wasting resources. Humans had become weak and dependent on the robots for every need.
Well... It's a matter of SkyNet, Cylon, Hal, Mother Brain, Brainiac, Magnus Robot Fighter, or take some other pick then.
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Originally Posted by Garthur
This is what Bill Gates and several other industry leaders believe we are headed.
Heh, they're fine when they had their chance to make billions. But when someone else tries to do it... Nope
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Originally Posted by Garthur
I was the engineer responsible for 2 different robots at my manufacturing plant. That was the 1980's, and each robot was $250,000. Now you can buy the same thing for $30,000. When the average person can buy a fully articulated robot for home use and they become so common that life without them will be considered impossible like the smart phone, cell phone, automobile is now, we will have entered the robotic revolution.
When smart software can design and computer driven machines can take the design and build robotic parts and then robots can assembly the robotic parts into the final robot and no human was involved, we, has humans will be worthless. This will happen. It may be 50 years away but it will happen.
A bit on the philosophical side, but what's to say we're not already worthless?
Today I had some blood work done and the Nurse who drew my blood was telling me they now have robots to do that job. She said you insert your arm into this device and it does it automatically !
I still think I prefer a pretty Nurse doing that job for me.
Then as resources begins to pour in faster then even those at the top can use, a backlash against socialism will occur, with people pushing for more and more liberty. And with the advances in resources being available....libertarianism is doable.
Resources are far from unlimited. We are already experiencing energy, material, and pollution constraints... and that is with only a small part of the world's population industrialized.
Plus how is a person who has so little economic value that they can't *earn* enough to live in poverty supposed to be self sufficient? I can maybe see collectives forming where everyone has a job even if it would be more efficient to automate most of them out of one. And then earnings are shared in some egalitarian manner. But those usually don't last long because the ones who are basically carrying the group with their talent and work can find better options by leaving it.
There may be a few people who shun tech completely and live off the land the way people did 200+ years ago. Little subsistence agrarian communities. Only a tiny fraction of the population will think that is fun, though.
For most of the population the dole will be the best option by far. There will be constraints for sure, but don't underestimate the value of not needing to work. Most young people now spend nearly all their free time in electronic communication, and they are getting accustomed to the idea of not having a house or car, or really much stuff at all. So long as cyberspace is available to them and growing in sophistication, they will be happy.
The other weird trend to me is that we are becoming *more* urban not less. I thought with many people able to work remotely that we'd be branching out into more rural areas, but it isn't happening. There are too many things in the city that people miss... making it worth the cost, crime, and pollution to be right in it.
A bit on the philosophical side, but what's to say we're not already worthless?
I might be missing your "philosophical" meaning... but most companies do not have incentives to retain employees unless they feel that they bring them economic value. So people with jobs are generally not worthless.
We have already sent a lot of the jobs overseas for cheap labor.And we need something else that eliminates jobs? The unemployment numbers used are a joke. Just drive around and look at all the empty commercial buildings. Hi Tech can't make up for all the jobs that have been leaving like crazy for years.
Resources are far from unlimited. We are already experiencing energy, material, and pollution constraints... and that is with only a small part of the world's population industrialized.
What resources are truly limited? I know that sounds like a idiotic question, but its more interesting then you think.
Energy-Fusion is coming. 40 years ago everyone said "fusion is always 40 years away". 20 years ago people said "Fusing is always 20 years away". Today? Lockheed Martin, and 4 other competitors are claiming fusion is less then a decade away. I believe it.
Material? Hmmm...most people think oil-but other then plastics which you can recycle, and lubricants....we are moving away from a oil. Steel, aluminum, etc? We have some serious attempts going on at asteroid mining. And its energy more then anything else that is needed to recycle things.
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Plus how is a person who has so little economic value that they can't *earn* enough to live in poverty supposed to be self sufficient? I can maybe see collectives forming where everyone has a job even if it would be more efficient to automate most of them out of one. And then earnings are shared in some egalitarian manner. But those usually don't last long because the ones who are basically carrying the group with their talent and work can find better options by leaving it.
3d printing with cheap power, and the ability to self recycle materials. IE print up your own modular hydroponic farm that is able to feed you, powered by a fusion reactor you printed, supplied with recycled materials. that is completely self contained, and automated. Its going to start with the wealthy doing this, spending 10 million or so on the things for it....but the price will drop year after year until its trivial.
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There may be a few people who shun tech completely and live off the land the way people did 200+ years ago. Little subsistence agrarian communities. Only a tiny fraction of the population will think that is fun, though.
I agree.
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For most of the population the dole will be the best option by far. There will be constraints for sure, but don't underestimate the value of not needing to work. Most young people now spend nearly all their free time in electronic communication, and they are getting accustomed to the idea of not having a house or car, or really much stuff at all. So long as cyberspace is available to them and growing in sophistication, they will be happy.
What you're describing here is the socialism period I think will occur. When these things are doable, but too expensive to be done at a individual level. I have a VR headset that I write software for, and it is simply mind boggling. We will lose people to that.
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The other weird trend to me is that we are becoming *more* urban not less. I thought with many people able to work remotely that we'd be branching out into more rural areas, but it isn't happening. There are too many things in the city that people miss... making it worth the cost, crime, and pollution to be right in it.
Not many actually wok remotely. And even then convenience keeps them close, and city planning is still setup this way.
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