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So what are your imaginative, resource saving suggestions on how to split the automated output between the people who do whatever they like? As for resources consumption you are wrong, resources/energy consumption grows nearly exponentially as automation progresses for the past 100 years, the is no reason to believe that doing the same thing over and over would result in dramatically different outcomes now.
I said for a given living standard. And energy use per capita real GDP has declined.
The future will bring much more dramatic drops in this metric. Note that our past includes a steady increase in people working jobs and commuting (vehicle miles traveled). Both will decline sharply. Sophisticated VR will likely replace most types of entertainment and travel. Depending on how good it gets, people may rarely wish to leave their "VR pod" and if they do it will be into a densely populated environment where services will be efficiently provided (and recycled), with minimal resource consumption.
Most developed countries are extremely wasteful simply because it is easy and resources are abundant (cheap). If necessary we can do much better quite easily.
I said for a given living standard. And energy use per capita real GDP has declined.
The future will bring much more dramatic drops in this metric. Note that our past includes a steady increase in people working jobs and commuting (vehicle miles traveled). Both will decline sharply. Sophisticated VR will likely replace most types of entertainment and travel. Depending on how good it gets, people may rarely wish to leave their "VR pod" and if they do it will be into a densely populated environment where services will be efficiently provided (and recycled), with minimal resource consumption.
Most developed countries are extremely wasteful simply because it is easy and resources are abundant (cheap). If necessary we can do much better quite easily.
Considering what a BS number GDP actually is that graph means nothing. If combined global Energy consumption grows exponentially, if per capita energy consumption grows too, but energy use per capita "real" GDP falls that could mean only that GDP is not as real as it seems. As for your vision of the bright future, ScFi authors envisioned it 50 years ago, "matrix", destroyed world, billions people on life support in their automated cocoons, suspended state of being, exciting imagery fed to their brains where everything is OK.
If combined global Energy consumption grows exponentially, if per capita energy consumption grows too, but energy use per capita "real" GDP falls that could mean only that GDP is not as real as it seems.
Why?
If A quadruples and B doubles, then B/A has been cut in half. In simple terms we are more efficient at adding value than in the past. That shouldn't be at all surprising.
I'm not predicting a rosy future though, because the masses are essentially confused and divided and ignorant. And if the oligarchs continue to look after their self interest (and to hell with everyone else) then marginalization and culling of the masses will be in store.
But there is no physical or technical reason why our future cannot be very bright. We won't be lacking the energy and resources for 10B people to live a very good life.
Basic Income is going to be inevitable unless there is some vast new industry that is created due to high technology that we have no idea about. For all the people whining about moochers and acting selfish think would you rather have these people starve in the streets?
Of course take the basic income and then work under the table for additional income. Win/Win.
If it all possible I am sure many would do that. However working under the table jobs may be next to impossible with robots doing all of those kinds of work. Hence the reason for basic income in the first place.
Of course take the basic income and then work under the table for additional income. Win/Win.
Why can't it just be regular taxed income? Still a win/win.
People miss the point when they think about basic income. Regular paid and taxed work will STILL EXIST. At least whatever jobs are left for humans... (second line not directed at you)
If A quadruples and B doubles, then B/A has been cut in half. In simple terms we are more efficient at adding value than in the past. That shouldn't be at all surprising. .
Let's explore mushrooming contributors to GDP:
"Decades of “financialization”—a term economists use to describe the growing scale, profitability and deregulation of the financial sector relative to the “real economy”" https://tcf.org/content/commentary/g...onomic-growth/
10% Financial sector, it takes little energy to play with numbers
17% Health care, due to obsene inflation of the costs for the most basic services, a racket of a sort.
19% Marketing and Advertising
18% housing, largerly due demand driven price inflation
5% Entertainment (1.7% mining)
8% Education. Same as healthcare, massive cost inflation.
78% total. With leaders like these, it is real easy to churn more GDP per unit energy.
I don't disagree with that (wasteful inefficiency) but I think you've gone way OT. Our biggest gains in GDP/W happened well before those abuses occurred. Your contention that energy and resource consumption must go up if living standards improve is nonsense.
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