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Old 12-31-2017, 07:10 AM
 
Location: Fairfax County, VA
1,387 posts, read 1,072,957 times
Reputation: 2759

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Siegel View Post
If you don't think it's a mystery, please tell me who knows.
Anyone who cares to can know, but most don't really care to. They'd rather just buy into schlock nonsense memes from the partisan disinfomation media. So much simpler. Otherwise, the history of those times is a known sequence of actual events linked by well understood causes.
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Old 12-31-2017, 07:12 AM
 
Location: Morrison, CO
34,237 posts, read 18,594,984 times
Reputation: 25807
I would not want to see GDP growth much beyond 4%. If 5% - 6% growth does occur, we are likely to see high inflation. Our rate of inflation is already grossly understated by our government. Anyone who grocery shops, or shops for other necessities sees it every day.
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Old 12-31-2017, 07:28 AM
 
Location: East Coast of the United States
27,581 posts, read 28,687,607 times
Reputation: 25176
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pilot1 View Post
I would not want to see GDP growth much beyond 4%. If 5% - 6% growth does occur, we are likely to see high inflation. Our rate of inflation is already grossly understated by our government. Anyone who grocery shops, or shops for other necessities sees it every day.
Even 4% is quite strong. That was the growth rate during the last 4 years of Bill Clinton’s Presidency.

The U.S. economy is much larger today than it was in the 1990s. It would be remarkable if we could get to 4% annually.
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Old 12-31-2017, 07:53 AM
 
Location: Fairfax County, VA
1,387 posts, read 1,072,957 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pilot1 View Post
I would not want to see GDP growth much beyond 4%. If 5% - 6% growth does occur, we are likely to see high inflation. Our rate of inflation is already grossly understated by our government. Anyone who grocery shops, or shops for other necessities sees it every day.
The headline CPI number is a NATIONAL measure, and it is the global gold standard for such numbers. Your local or household situation may well differ. That should be understood rather than coming as some sort of horrible surprise.
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Old 12-31-2017, 10:29 AM
 
Location: Ruidoso, NM
5,668 posts, read 6,598,326 times
Reputation: 4817
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Siegel View Post
If you don't think it's a mystery, please tell me who knows.
Best approach is to think for yourself. It's mostly simple addition and subtraction, not even complex math.
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Old 01-01-2018, 01:10 AM
 
6,438 posts, read 6,923,553 times
Reputation: 8743
Quote:
Originally Posted by rruff View Post
Best approach is to think for yourself. It's mostly simple addition and subtraction, not even complex math.
You and 17thAndK both are trying to tell me that understanding the economy is simple, but neither of you has said anything substantive. As a trained economist, I'm going to assure you that it's complicated, but that a beginning of understanding can be achieved by reading the following:

https://fee.org/resources/i-pencil/ (full text on the web page)
http://mises.org/books/economics_in_...on_hazlitt.pdf
http://down.ebook777.com/CapAndFreForAnnEdi.pdf

Disclaimer: I don't agree with every word in these three books. They are just an introduction to free-market economic thinking. There are other points of view.
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Old 01-01-2018, 05:18 AM
 
24,559 posts, read 18,281,854 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Siegel View Post
If you don't think it's a mystery, please tell me who knows.
Goldman Sachs?

After the decades extracting the best and the brightest from our elite universities, their projections are probably better than anybody else. Not quite Asimov psychohistory-level accuracy but they probably have the best handle on what an outcome would be if you turn the knobs in a particular way.
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Old 01-01-2018, 10:20 AM
 
Location: Ruidoso, NM
5,668 posts, read 6,598,326 times
Reputation: 4817
Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffD View Post
they probably have the best handle on what an outcome would be if you turn the knobs in a particular way.
They not only know what happens when the economic knobs are turned but also when all the other knobs get turned.
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Old 01-01-2018, 10:21 AM
 
Location: Ruidoso, NM
5,668 posts, read 6,598,326 times
Reputation: 4817
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Siegel View Post
I'm going to assure you that it's complicated.
Depends on what you want to know. What makes a society prosperous?
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Old 01-02-2018, 06:51 AM
 
17,401 posts, read 11,982,916 times
Reputation: 16155
Quote:
Originally Posted by freemkt View Post
The fruits of the economy are not very evenly distributed. As such, just as there are Two Americas, there are two economies. One is booming and the other is struggling.

As Dave Ramsey said during the Great Recession, what's relevant to you is not how "the" economy is doing, but how "your" economy is doing.
It shouldn't be "redistributed", it should be earned. And with the economy picking up, the ones motivated to earn more will be able do so.

I've taken the plunge to start a business myself, to supplement my income. Required very little startup up money, but plays into my strengths in my hobby and my day job.

I could have made a million excuses why I shouldn't start it; I don't have a college degree, I don't have experience in this exact market, I have a full time job and have little free time, it might fail. But I have a plan, and am implementing it, one step at a time.

The economy that is doing something will be booming. The economy that is sitting back and expecting someone else to do something for the will be struggling.
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