Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Apparently U.S. standards have fallen - we used to believe we could be nothing but #1 in every category! I guess we've "matured" to the point where we don't even care or consider why we might not be #1 any longer? Or we just denigrate the measurement scale so it doesn't matter.
Well to be honest... yeah. Personally I think USA is the greatest country in the world but I don't think anyone needs to be wiping tears from their face over some ranking based on arbitrary (and often unquantifiable) metrics. Wanting/striving to be the best is always a good thing, but that poster using whatever index of country quality puts USA at #8 or #14 or whatever as evidence of a failed nation seems a over the top.
I don't think Americans have any idea what's around the corner.
Not only do Japanese and European central banks plan on liquiditating their US equity holdings in 2018, which by the way amounted to over $2T in FY17 as reported by Bank of America, but you have several other upcoming problems that will additional stress unlike you've ever had to deal with before.
Now, most people just throw money into index funds or individual stocks or whatever and don't really pay attention to order book, so they don't really understand what's going on. They don't see the algorithms and the spoofing and they don't understand what a "walk up" is.
That's because they've been protected by over $15T of liquidity injections by central banks.
This means NO PRICE DISCOVERY.
Right?
That's only one problem. I assume the FED will take the place of these banks, but that doesn't really resolve any problems, does it?
I also doubt it will work, as there will likely be a capital outflow out of the US.
Furthermore, China is working hard to take the place of the Petro-Dollar by using gold backed futures and will begin large scale purchases of crude in March.
"Shale’s second coming is testament to Texan grit. But the industry’s never-say-die spirit may explain why it has done next to nothing about its dire finances. The business has burned up cash for 34 of the last 40 quarters, according to figures on the top 60 listed E&P firms collected by Bloomberg, a data provider. With the exception of airlines, Chinese state enterprises and Silicon Valley unicorns—private firms valued at more than $1bn—shale firms are on an unparalleled money-losing streak. About $11bn was torched in the latest quarter, as capital expenditures exceeded cashflows. The cash-burn rate may well rise again this year."
[b]ut the fact that the industry makes huge accounting losses has not changed. It has burned up cash whether the oil price was at $100, as in 2014, or at about $50, as it was during the past three months. The biggest 60 firms in aggregate have used up $9bn per quarter on average for the past five years. As a result the industry has barely improved its finances despite raising $70bn of equity since 2014. Much of the new money got swallowed up by losses, so total debt remains high, at just over $200bn."
I've done the math previously. I've showed the math.
You are due for an oil shock. It will be devastating to your economy. Real estate prices will crash. The stock market will crash. There will be no relief because the dollar will not be desirable.
The only good that will do is that it will temporarily allow you to sell exports for cheaper.
I'm not sure what else I need to say. Do the math.
How long have central banks been injecting liquidity into equity markets?
Irrelevant.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jobster
I don't think people understand the implications of this.
Economists do. This is an economics forum.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jobster
We are not talking about millions of dollars. We are not talking about billions of dollars. We are talking about trillions of dollars!
You don't seem to have a point.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jobster
That means the market is artificial.
No it isn't. The economy is very healthy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jobster
Basically Japan and Europe imported inflation to the US markets.
Content-free post.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jobster
They are set to withdraw from equity markets in 2018, so where is this money going to come from?
Not a problem.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jobster
Don't you think it will result in capital outflows? And the money isn't going to go into US bonds. Not with Chinese 10 years paying 4%.
There is so much wrong with your ramblings it isn't worth it to try to educate you.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jobster
So that will force the Fed to raise rates faster than it wants to right?
Nope.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jobster
Well, what happens then? Your commercial real estate industry and retail are hanging on by a thread. Your real estate markets are higher than ever. Almost every single asset is inflated and almost every single asset, including crypto is correlated.
The conspiracy theory is deep in this post.
When I referred to math, I used YOUR GOVERNMENT'S numbers to quantify how much oil we have left in the US if we were completely restricted to using US oil at present consumption rates, which are RISING, despite the "so-called" green revolution. [/quote]
Irrelevant.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jobster
And then your tight oil providers, do you think they can handle interest rate hikes when they are unprofitable at even $100 a barrel?
Irrelevant.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jobster
Look at the decline rates in your Permean basin and Bakken fields.
Irrelevant.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jobster
Additionally, as I already mentioned, there is an attack on the USD. Look at what's happening to the USD today.
Irrelevant.
[quote=Jobster;50826270]Do you think I enjoy wasting my time talking about all this? [/quote
Clearly the answer is an unqualified "yes."
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jobster
So, yes, I have been talking about this for a while. Maybe you have the answers.
I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jobster
Again, this is NOT a black swan. This is NOT a six sigma event.
I agree with you there. There is no "this", so it clearly isn't a black swan or six-sigma event.
What will likely happen is that populism will be blamed and idiot, complacent, stupid moron, Americans will buy off on the propaganda as our politicians give our country away to the bankers.
That's right. This next collapse will bring up calls for consolidation. There will be calls by your capitalist brethren to create one global bank to handle all the world's finances.
The problem is that Russia and China will never capitulate. Either way, the future for Americans is bleak. Expect a police/debtor state.
Look at the responses to this thread. The people who assume they are rich would rather die than commit to any form of altruism.
There will be no universal basic income. How can people not see this?
And then what? War? Maybe.
Use critical thinking. Think strategically. What would YOU do?
Do you have a cat as a pet? Does the cat also wear a tinfoil hat?
I didn't read the article. But it seems to me most Americans agree that things are not on a good course. But each side thinks it's all (or mostly) the other side's fault for why things are in such a mess.
Overall US lifespan has decreased the last 2 years and I do partially blame Obamacare because it has worsened the care of everyone that I know. I still maintain that the biggest culprit to US lifespan is poor diet.
Unlike Costa Rica(who has surpassed the U.S. in life expectancy), eating organically in the U.S. is more expensive than the processed garbage from General Foods etc.
According to my grocery bills, about 40% more.
The government has also cited rounding error. Changes in the makeup of the data source can have notable effect because of the large variance between ethnic groups and gender. Ethnic composition is changing. Typical white is almost at retirement age (55). Lower immigration and lower birthrate among Hispanics who have the highest life expectancy in the US. All of the above.
SportyandMisty, you live in a bubble. I respect you because you said you invented some of the things we use today, and that's great that you able to achieve such great things. In all honesty, I think it would really benefit our government to invest more of its resources into research and development in terms with what consensus says about the future.
I don't have to read what you wrote. I read some, but not all. You immediately said what the author spoke of had nothing to do with economics, but without the prospect of long-term employment, what do people in this country have to look forward to? What utility do they have?
Do you not agree that both the lower cost of labor in developing nations and technology replacing labor capital going forward into the future? Also, how can you be sure what level of technology exists for artificial intelligence platforms? These children today have very little to look forward with exception of only the very best.
I understand that you must be among the very best to be an inventor of something that everyone uses today, but if you have any empathy at all, you must also realize that given the scarcity of resources, that the current lifestyle we broadly live in American society for the average citizen is unsustainable. It is absolutely possible that your lifestyle is sustainable given your potential level of wealth which is unknown, but obviously sizable enough for you to feel heavily affected by being responsible for providing public services.
That is a significant part of what an economic system should provide. Capitalism property theory and free market economic system are good in theory, but it is dependent on the proponent of growth, which today is really predicated on greed, given that low interest rates promote what will be seen by future generations as piracy. In this case, low interest rates force people into equity which his highly volatile by its own nature, and even potentially more so depending on global developments, like who has control of resources for economic growth.
There is no promise of trade agreements between nations, so it is imperative that the US defend its own resources. I'm not sure how you referenced the Economist as a conspiracy theory. Wow. Okay, do you have any information that says otherwise given the source of their information? Where are you getting your numbers. You have not challenged me with any sources. Why is that?
Yet, you have the audacity, to call me a conspiracy theorist? No, you just don't understand that there are over seven billion people on this planet. How many of them do you think would cry at America's demise? Yet, we allow this looting of our resources, this looting of our future, and then the money will outflow to wherever the next economic bubble is at. Surely, you must understand that if faith is lost in the dollar which could happen as international central banks pull their money out, could result in a further exodus, sped up by algorithmic trading systems that will simply follow the trend, which I imagine will be towards developing nations, gold, and eventually oil, as fundamentals are revealed, as interest rates are forced to be risen faster in order to keep up with Chinese bonds which are at 4%.
The Fed has been raising interest rates dreadfully slow because retail is hanging by a thread and so is commercial real estate. Labor force participation is declining and even from a statistical perspective, everything is mean reverting. See volatility.
Why do you think what I say is a conspiracy theory? What other reason is there? Do you really believe Assad would gas his own people when the UN was there and possibly get his family killed in the process? Doesn't he have daughters? And you think I'm an idiot? You might be a genius, but you're also kinda dumb.
You should try fasting. Look it up.
Anyway, also why do you have to come at me so disrespectfully? I don't mind cats. I once was thinking about getting a wild cat, but I realized I wasn't even fit to handle a kitten. We just don't mesh. But I do appreciate cat's fighting style. The weakness is that they are open to counter ambushes because they get so fixated on their opponents.
But nah, I own a pit. Used to have two. They thought they could run me until I beat on the bag and stared them down and from that point on, it was all military going forward. And by the way, I was military. Were you? Nice of you to chicken hawk though.
Why don't you volunteer and go to Afghanistan? You ready to get blown up? That could happen. That is real. I just want peace. Why are you upset about that? Do you think this constant separation that is causing the anxiety for people to lose hope because they have no utility? We leave people behind in this society.
What are they to do with the people that are left behind? Those people will be upset. You know this. So two things happen. Evil or Good. What do you choose?
I should have edited that.
Israel is one of many examples I could have used to demonstrate wasteful spending.
Spending motivated by business and political interests, rather than need.
The Middle East as a whole has been a massive financial and foreign policy failure. https://explorer.usaid.gov/cd/LBN
$400M given to Lebanon according to the above, yet articles being written by the NY times on our expanding rate of poverty.
Why are we as taxpayers footing the bill for Syrian refugees?
I do agree with your point
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
