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That can never happen without an abundance of competition and employers for people to sell their labor to. As long as there are fewer and fewer major employers we will become socialist.
The whole point of anti trust and what we did to standard oil was to maintain capitalism. Capitalism cant exist in a monopoly or oligopoly market.
You continually point out Standard Oil and the Sherman antitrust act. Standard oil was a monopoly that owned more than 90 percent of the market share in an industry critical to national security.
Most industries are dominated by 4 to 10 companies that together own 90% of the market share. Is that not competition? You want to break up oligopolies too? Into how many companies? 20? 30? On what basis? How do you know this inefficiency wouldn’t put society worse off economically?
Which company or industry is dominated any where near what standard oil had?
So when this comes true in a 100 percent factory driven by robots, what going to happen to the people who need to work? ( not everybody cut out to work in the tech industry) Business need people not machines?
If automation is allowed to continue unabated we will first have a society like what's in the "Terminator" movies. This would only be a transition phase until fast space travel and planet terra forming becomes reality. At that point all the "people in power" would relocate to another planet and rule (or at least try to rule) the remaining population on Earth.
I know this is all science fiction, but when looking far in advance sci fi tends to be a good predictor IMO.
I wouldn't worry about this scenario for at least 100 years though, so don't go quitting your jobs just yet and joining the underground resistance.
I know this is all science fiction, but when looking far in advance sci fi tends to be a good predictor IMO.
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Not at all. Look at some of the scifi movies from the 60s or 70s. They were not even close. Nothing in A Space Odyssey 2001 is even close to reality. According to other movies from the era, we should be looking for aliens in caves under the surface of Mars. We should be travelling at Warp Speed to visit the far reaches of the universe.
That's a nice tidy fantasy and I hear it all the time, but here is the harsh reality. Human beings are born with a specific intelligence and aptitude; a certain innate capability for logical thinking, communication, and visualization.
Maybe 1/3 have the ability to "get an education or get skills that are in demand", and be successful in that effort.
Maybe the middle 1/3 can "get an education or get skills that are in demand" with a huge amount of effort; but the reality is that they will be directly competing with the 1/3 that were born to be better suited to those occupations.
The remaining 1/3 are not born with the skill sets and aptitudes that you ascribe to everyone. No amount of training or "pull yourself up by the bootstraps" effort will help them to succeed. Where are the jobs for them in this brave new world?
Agree 100%...very good post.
I’m in the middle 1/3 ....I wish I was in that top 1/3 where it is second nature,
I have a friend who is a computer programmer and has the perfect skills for this day and age (and future),
I swear he even talks like a computer! He is very very talented and is paid accordingly.
I wish I had his skills.
And what about that bottom 1/3....they are the losers in that brave new world,
there will be not enough jobs for them in future if AI/robots become prominent.
Not at all. Look at some of the scifi movies from the 60s or 70s. They were not even close. Nothing in A Space Odyssey 2001 is even close to reality. According to other movies from the era, we should be looking for aliens in caves under the surface of Mars. We should be travelling at Warp Speed to visit the far reaches of the universe.
Not every sci fi book, movie, or TV series is a winner. If you specifically want to look at Space Odyssey 2001 we already have elements of the "HAL 9000" computer in existence. Some elements are,
Voice recognition, predictive texting (typing) and auto correct, Amazon Alexa, GPS Systems, ask/answer, if/then statements in computer code.
The big difference is human consciousness. If we were able to transfer human consciousness to machines we would be done for. IOW, skynet becomes fully aware.
Stephen Hawking said something about AI before that when something like this;
Assume AI is real and aware (ie skynet)
The human asks the AI - Is there a God ?
The AI answers - There is now.
At any rate we won't live long enough to see this unfold. We are looking at least 100 years into the future for any of this to stuff to be reality.
There is never a guarantee that a species or country can go on forever. Just as forest fires clean the land, so do die offs clean a species that is in excess. I got no answers. Time will tell OP.
What's amazing in the photo is how cheap tents are. Remember when they had to be sewn, and they were hard to setup, an ungainly. They leaked and they smelled. They were expensive. You certainly didn't want to live in one for very long....feeling every hard pebble....
Now there's a cheap light, and an air mattress that doesn't leak....and auto-inflates. There's solar showers. Cell phones even the internet.
20 years ago I used to follow a band called Phish. They would play a couple nights in a spot, and people would go to multiple shows as each one was different. Along the way came a mobile tent/camper city. Some were slumming it, some were making a living from it, some were just passing through. All the same, a vibrant little economy would pick up at each place. People selling food and beers or tshirts or whatever they could sell.
To be sure, it was a different tent city, but the people there for one show and to leave definitely funded those that were straight-up making a living from the tour. Those most focused on the tour generally had a food truck and camper. For that little moment, they were kingpins. If they grouped up, they could create the main shopping area by themselves...and they would. Still, there was plenty of market for others. Some would work, and some would just enjoy the scene. It was free market capitalism at its finest. There weren't "jobs" for people, but people could do what they wanted to attract coin or attention.
The "residential areas" would populate as well. What's close to the action, but not too close. What's close to the bathrooms....but definitely not too close. If a residential area got big...small vendors would pop up to supply it. It might start with a dude and a cooler, and migrate to someone setting up their residential area like a bar. If it got too unruly, residents might move.
There's another thread about hotels charging by the hour....and plenty of discussion about airbnb etc. As jobs get harder to come by, there will be a shift. Even the owners of capital will have to keep up. Look at malls. Those that were too cheap can't afford the shift to a place to go for entertainment, with some stores as well. Old homes that weren't properly wired, are inefficient etc become essentially worth less and less. Above all, technology will not be just running endlessly with robots because the innovation that created them will not stop either. The road is littered with has beens like Atari, Commodore, Palm, Iomega etc. Even in healthcare, today's lightening rod, we've been able to come so far because it frankly takes a lot of money to get a lot of smart people to forgo other exercises to work together and develop a new cure, process or device. Capitalism imperfectly delivers, but it keeps the path moving forward. Like that Phish show, eventually someone's going to say....man I want to sell this beer before the show starts, I'm going on price..and prices go down because people have different considerations.
The conglomeration of capital into ever larger companies is certainly something to be regulated, but necessarily bad. Vanderbilt may have been the robber baron of the railroads, but the railroads got built and the country's interior developed. The Orient Express was far removed in terms of the USSR's success in developing its interior. Capital is needed to make great achievements. The accumulations of capital can only be done by giving a return to said capital. Take that away and people will go into hoarding. Marx was a bright guy, but the industrial revolution preceeded him by over a hundred years. He wasn't nearly as philosophical as the quote seems to suggest and most of us remember what happened to the countries that went communist. Progress ground to a halt outside of a narrow range of government sponsored activities.
I guess all I'm saying is to not worry about it too much. Things will change...they always have....they always will. As long as we keep the socialists at bay, and don't let the powerful start unfairly using their influence...we'll keep moving forward.
What's amazing in the photo is how cheap tents are. Remember when they had to be sewn, and they were hard to setup, an ungainly. They leaked and they smelled. They were expensive. You certainly didn't want to live in one for very long....feeling every hard pebble....
Now there's a cheap light, and an air mattress that doesn't leak....and auto-inflates. There's solar showers. Cell phones even the internet.
20 years ago I used to follow a band called Phish. They would play a couple nights in a spot, and people would go to multiple shows as each one was different. Along the way came a mobile tent/camper city. Some were slumming it, some were making a living from it, some were just passing through. All the same, a vibrant little economy would pick up at each place. People selling food and beers or tshirts or whatever they could sell.
To be sure, it was a different tent city, but the people there for one show and to leave definitely funded those that were straight-up making a living from the tour. Those most focused on the tour generally had a food truck and camper. For that little moment, they were kingpins. If they grouped up, they could create the main shopping area by themselves...and they would. Still, there was plenty of market for others. Some would work, and some would just enjoy the scene. It was free market capitalism at its finest. There weren't "jobs" for people, but people could do what they wanted to attract coin or attention.
The "residential areas" would populate as well. What's close to the action, but not too close. What's close to the bathrooms....but definitely not too close. If a residential area got big...small vendors would pop up to supply it. It might start with a dude and a cooler, and migrate to someone setting up their residential area like a bar. If it got too unruly, residents might move.
There's another thread about hotels charging by the hour....and plenty of discussion about airbnb etc. As jobs get harder to come by, there will be a shift. Even the owners of capital will have to keep up. Look at malls. Those that were too cheap can't afford the shift to a place to go for entertainment, with some stores as well. Old homes that weren't properly wired, are inefficient etc become essentially worth less and less. Above all, technology will not be just running endlessly with robots because the innovation that created them will not stop either. The road is littered with has beens like Atari, Commodore, Palm, Iomega etc. Even in healthcare, today's lightening rod, we've been able to come so far because it frankly takes a lot of money to get a lot of smart people to forgo other exercises to work together and develop a new cure, process or device. Capitalism imperfectly delivers, but it keeps the path moving forward. Like that Phish show, eventually someone's going to say....man I want to sell this beer before the show starts, I'm going on price..and prices go down because people have different considerations.
The conglomeration of capital into ever larger companies is certainly something to be regulated, but necessarily bad. Vanderbilt may have been the robber baron of the railroads, but the railroads got built and the country's interior developed. The Orient Express was far removed in terms of the USSR's success in developing its interior. Capital is needed to make great achievements. The accumulations of capital can only be done by giving a return to said capital. Take that away and people will go into hoarding. Marx was a bright guy, but the industrial revolution preceeded him by over a hundred years. He wasn't nearly as philosophical as the quote seems to suggest and most of us remember what happened to the countries that went communist. Progress ground to a halt outside of a narrow range of government sponsored activities.
I guess all I'm saying is to not worry about it too much. Things will change...they always have....they always will. As long as we keep the socialists at bay, and don't let the powerful start unfairly using their influence...we'll keep moving forward.
I am having a hard time following this, are GOOD jobs hard to come by or are we capitalist. Capitalism = ample competition with an abundance of employers to sell your labor to the highest bidder. Cronyism/communism is mega corporations and the state completely controling everything.
The reason we are going socialist is because people are tired of living in communism (the US is a pseudo form of communism, where instead of the state controling means of production a hand full of mega corps through the govt control the means of production.
Since enforcement of anti trust went away after the bust up of standard oil people now just want a check. Its already clear that the govt wont enforce anti trust so might as well just go socialist.
I am having a hard time following this, are GOOD jobs hard to come by or are we capitalist. Capitalism = ample competition with an abundance of employers to sell your labor to the highest bidder. Cronyism/communism is mega corporations and the state completely controling everything.
The reason we are going socialist is because people are tired of living in communism (the US is a pseudo form of communism, where instead of the state controling means of production a hand full of mega corps through the govt control the means of production.
Since enforcement of anti trust went away after the bust up of standard oil people now just want a check. Its already clear that the govt wont enforce anti trust so might as well just go socialist.
Standard Oil used some pretty extreme tactics to keep competition off the market.
Who is doing that today? Who are these Mega Corps that control the means of production. Who would you break up?
Every time something advances, everyone else has the opportunity to use that advance to their own gain. The processor allows the computer, which allows software, which allows internet, which allows for internet retailing...and on and on.
When you go socialism, there's no chance to advance. If I don't own private property, I can't contribute. My great idea doesn't matter. I can't form a team to pursue an advance. People are limited to maintenance and the ideas of a small group of politicians.
If you think you can handle yourself and your needs better than either Trump or Clinton from Washington DC then socialism should be avoided at all costs. Venezuela, Mao's China, the Eastern Bloc and of course Russia.....what's the allure? It doesn't seem to work. Why would it work here?
Standard Oil used some pretty extreme tactics to keep competition off the market.
Who is doing that today? Who are these Mega Corps that control the means of production. Who would you break up?
Every time something advances, everyone else has the opportunity to use that advance to their own gain. The processor allows the computer, which allows software, which allows internet, which allows for internet retailing...and on and on.
When you go socialism, there's no chance to advance. If I don't own private property, I can't contribute. My great idea doesn't matter. I can't form a team to pursue an advance. People are limited to maintenance and the ideas of a small group of politicians.
If you think you can handle yourself and your needs better than either Trump or Clinton from Washington DC then socialism should be avoided at all costs. Venezuela, Mao's China, the Eastern Bloc and of course Russia.....what's the allure? It doesn't seem to work. Why would it work here?
Those are different, Thora Terrian regime’s. If we went in that direction I’m sure it would be more of a model of democratic socialism like the Netherlands, Denmark places like that.
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