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Move. No reason not too. You can't sit and wait for the world economy to do its thing. You work at a call center, you aren't likely to do much worse by moving. Its not like you are planning a 30m capital expenditure and worried about demand.
I so agree with this. I don't know anything about your situation really, but if you hate where you live and you have a crappy job, why stay?
If you have no other compelling reason to stay where you are, now seems as good a time as any to try a new place. I don't know where you are looking to move, but call center jobs are pretty plentiful in a lot of towns. I know that isn't what you want to do, but if you can get a job lined up where you want to go, that will make the move easier. Then you can look at other options once you settle in your new home.
My DH and I moved to AZ in our late 20s (sight unseen for me), and it was the best thing we ever did. The economy was not exactly booming at that time, but we did fine. Being young and having few possessions helped. There wasn't a whole lot to lose.
This time it will be housing, student loans, autos, credit card, national/state deficit, pensions, unemployment, immigration, trade wars, and de-valuation of the $/stagflation all at the same time.
This time it will be housing, student loans, autos, credit card, national/state deficit, pensions, unemployment, immigration, trade wars, and de-valuation of the $/stagflation all at the same time.
Get out your umbrella and rain boots!
Exactly.
Housing starts were touted as down in the spring. New permit issues were down. New car sales were down. Retailers are closing stores and/or going out of business all together.
Listed houses are selling for multiples of thousands less than listed or going off market.
Small businesses have suffered.
Cruise and vacations are down.
The stock market has been all over the map, only this time sharply up or down on "whims".
The worlds businesses and markets have suffered.
Major election coming up.
And as this poster quoted noted, rising debts everywhere.
Oh brother. There's always a recession coming. Even when one is leaving, another one is coming eventually. If everyone keeps saying it long enough, they'll eventually be right. Meanwhile, the market will sputter here and there but continue it's upward climb like it has for decades.
It looks like the party is over and we are about to have a recession. Do you think this will be as bad as 2008? Will it be worse?
I'm currently stuck in a dead end call center job in a town I hate and was planning on moving in a few months to a larger city in hopes of finding a better job and better life, but now I'm having second thoughts.
I don't think it will be as bad as what started in 2007, since that was a Great Recession.
But it's coming. That was foreseeable as soon as the huge tax cut bill for the wealthy, that was unpaid for and added or will add $1.5 Trillion Dollars to the deficit, coupled with deregulation, occurred. That's a known recipe for a recession. It happened with the Great Depression, and again with the 2007 Great Recession.
I've read that so-called experts are looking for it to start end of 2020, while some say 2021, and some say they don't know, but soon.
For the vast majority of people, there generally isn't much good investing advice other than to buy an S&P 500 ETF and keep adding to it for decades.
That's certainly good advice.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigCityDreamer
Very few people will ever beat or outsmart the market over the long term.
I think I know what you intend to say. What you actually said, however, isn't quite right.
For EVERY SINGLE dollar invested that "beats the market," there is a corresponding dollar invested that "loses to the market" because arithmetically speaking adding together the returns both market-beating dollars invested and market-losing dollars adds up and averages to -- surprise -- the market. This is not fictional Lake Wobegon where everyone is above average.
There are plenty of people who attempt to beat or outsmart the market. By definition, some will beat the market and some will lose to the market.
Here's the thing: for people who beat the market, is it luck and hence irreproduceable? Or is it skill and hence reproduceable? For people who lose to the market, is it bad luck? Or is it bad skill?
The best study I'm aware of is that of professors Eugene Fama (University of Chicago Booth School of Business & Nobel Prize in Economics) and his long-time collaborate Ken French (Dartmouth). Here is their paper: http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/bespen...Skill-JF10.pdf Please note the above paper, which answers the "Luck vs. Skill" question, is pretty technical stuff. You need a bit of math and you need a fair understanding of modern portfolio theory.
Thankfully, there here is a summary intended for mere mortals (people not in a PhD program in Finance): https://famafrench.dimensional.com/e...rformance.aspx . Most of us on C-D in the Economics forum can read this summary and learn a thing or two.
****
TL;DR
The short answer is some pretty cool statistical analysis of mutual fund returns shows that the vast majority of "beat the market" returns are, indeed, explained by luck. There are a tiny sliver of market beaters who appear to do so from skill. In whole, once you take into account the fees charged by professional mutual fund managers, the fund managers win and the investors lose.
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