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Old 02-06-2020, 03:42 PM
 
17,905 posts, read 16,070,803 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bale002 View Post
Which sound bank do you prefer?

One based on real deposits from real customers with real income from real work?

Or one based on credit-driven global wholesale money markets, aka math-as-money?



Banking is essentially a service that accounts for debt. Nothing backs it but trust. To be fair, there are few examples of a banking system worthy of it but it is what it is. The way it ought to work is the money supply should expand with capital. Unfortunately it tends to expand with cash flows from real estate. Its a toll booth economy.
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Old 02-06-2020, 05:01 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gwynedd1 View Post
The national debt is a myth.

This sentiment clearly depends on which political party is in power at the time.
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Old 02-06-2020, 05:52 PM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
7,173 posts, read 11,111,752 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cleveland_Collector View Post
This sentiment clearly depends on which political party is in power at the time.
It clearly does not.

Cheap rhetoric aside and focusing instead on what they actually do, history very, very clearly shows that there is wide, wide consensus seamlessly over many, many decades, even in the past few weeks, in favor of debt financing of government spending, lots of spending, it is more flexible than taxation and the technology to manage it is formidable.

To be sure, there is much about it that is sub-optimal, but it works and it will continue to work for as long as the US economy, including its international linkages, is productive enough.


Quote:
Originally Posted by gwynedd1 View Post
Banking is essentially a service that accounts for debt. Nothing backs it but trust. To be fair, there are few examples of a banking system worthy of it but it is what it is. The way it ought to work is the money supply should expand with capital. Unfortunately it tends to expand with cash flows from real estate. It's a toll booth economy.
I hear you.

But I think many hypercritical observers underestimate the expansion of capital over the past 30 years or so through technology that has permeated everything from manufacturing to debt management.

Again, many outcomes are sub-optimal, but by and large, obese and lopsided, it works.
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Old 02-06-2020, 06:48 PM
 
Location: Silicon Valley
4,263 posts, read 1,931,197 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gwynedd1 View Post
Do you own any foreign funds ? All of mine have lagged domestic. The 3rd world is really sick. Sanctions on Russia, Venezuela, Argentina etc. The EU and Japan are continually sluggish. The dollars are here in the US.





https://www.ft.com/content/7e412720-...4-d00e5018f061








Well to some extend this is true because tariffs have the same effect as the end of the oil dollar. Less reserve currency outflows to the rest of the world.
The US has many tailwinds going for it and helping it generate massive returns. The largest trade surplus as of late has been held by none other than expensive and burdened Germany, which continues to trade in a cheaper Euro.

What has happened in the economy has been an imbalance of substantial proportions stemming from Germany (Euro, Unique End Market Requirements) and China (Unequal trade access, Subsidized inputs, stolen IP and significant tax strategies). If the US has been having a tough time, imagine how Brazil and Argentina have been faring up....or how Japan has been held in check for a couple of decades.

At any rate, no country commodity assembles its way to riches. It needs to eventually evolve to become the engineering front for an industry. The US has strong IP laws. New investment goes to build new things. As such when $3 is invested around the world, $1 of it still flows into California. Whether its for new research, or to fund a similar company looking to hire engineering talent in the know from a similar country the new tech workspace hub sprawls in amazing fashion. The rest is whether or not God happened to drop a ton of gold or oil in your backyard. Barring either of those, you need to try and get yourself to a government with little corruption, maximized education and maintain a low enough tax plan to allow companies a chance to seed and sprout before the long arm of the law buries them in taxes and complexity.

It can backfire. One unicorn I know should have already gone public. They have the product, the space....but the CEO had friends he was too loyal too, including a cr@p accountant that decided he never needed to pay taxes. The second they go on the radar, they're going to get buried with what would have been a non-financial event that will now bankrupt them. Their only hope is to be acquired and slowly meld into the framework. I don't know how big unreported SaaS revenues are throughout the world, but I would imagine we're going to get a bigger taste soon.
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Old 02-07-2020, 05:52 AM
 
Location: Boston
10,850 posts, read 3,088,307 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gwynedd1 View Post
Yep and it explains the world wide recession. No more dollar outflows for oil.
maybe in your world, hope things turn around for you. Maybe a second job would help?
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Old 02-07-2020, 05:58 AM
 
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it is not only oil money that is reduced but capital investment overseas , especially in emerging markets .

factories are built and done , labor has shot up and quite frankly it is us and where we spend that really drives many of these markets and for the most part we are done ....
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Old 02-07-2020, 01:37 PM
 
17,905 posts, read 16,070,803 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cleveland_Collector View Post
This sentiment clearly depends on which political party is in power at the time.



Its a convenient myth. The Republicans loved to blame Obama for the budget deficit. I can assure you I am no apologist for Obama whom I consider to be a sock puppet . However please:




https://www.cbo.gov/publication/51005








Most of the country does not even seem to know it exists.....It ran on this for most of his administration.
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Old 02-07-2020, 01:44 PM
 
17,905 posts, read 16,070,803 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skeddy View Post
maybe in your world, hope things turn around for you. Maybe a second job would help?



What does the world economy have to do with "my world"?



That's a rhetorical question .I would be most please with no response.



https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/japan

The economy likely contracted in the final quarter of last year, after slowing slightly in Q3, weighed on by the sales tax increase from 8% to 10% that took effect in October; Typhoon Hagibis, which hit Japan in the same mont
https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/germany



2019 was a year to forget for the German economy, as it expanded at a six-year low pace due to a toxic cocktail of external headwinds


Brazil is another exception but clearly seeing a weal global economy.





https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/brazil
In the third quarter of 2019, the economy expanded at the fastest rate since Q1 2018 in quarter-on-quarter terms. Strengthening domestic demand lifted growth, underpinned by solid consumer spending; however, the external sector continued to drag on the economy.
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Old 02-07-2020, 01:48 PM
 
17,905 posts, read 16,070,803 times
Reputation: 6525
Quote:
Originally Posted by bale002 View Post
It clearly does not.

Cheap rhetoric aside and focusing instead on what they actually do, history very, very clearly shows that there is wide, wide consensus seamlessly over many, many decades, even in the past few weeks, in favor of debt financing of government spending, lots of spending, it is more flexible than taxation and the technology to manage it is formidable.

To be sure, there is much about it that is sub-optimal, but it works and it will continue to work for as long as the US economy, including its international linkages, is productive enough.




I hear you.

But I think many hypercritical observers underestimate the expansion of capital over the past 30 years or so through technology that has permeated everything from manufacturing to debt management.

Again, many outcomes are sub-optimal, but by and large, obese and lopsided, it works.

Capital expansion occurs , but mostly through the noose of cash flows from rising FIRE sector assets. As the tool booth rises in value, it can secure more debt which flows into the economy.
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Old 02-07-2020, 05:58 PM
 
4,101 posts, read 5,937,721 times
Reputation: 4362
Quote:
Originally Posted by bale002 View Post
It clearly does not.

Cheap rhetoric aside and focusing instead on what they actually do, history very, very clearly shows that there is wide, wide consensus seamlessly over many, many decades, even in the past few weeks, in favor of debt financing of government spending, lots of spending, it is more flexible than taxation and the technology to manage it is formidable.

To be sure, there is much about it that is sub-optimal, but it works and it will continue to work for as long as the US economy, including its international linkages, is productive enough.

If it does clearly does not, why does the sentiment on one side or the other change literally with the political wind? Remember, we're talking sentiment here. Reality is a whole other sphere.
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