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The big difference between 2008 and now is the shutdown. Even with everything up and running and all the actions taken by the federal government it took years to get over 2008. And look how long it took to recover from the great depression. Yet it seems the prognosticators think a quick V downturn and all will be well in a few months.
Once the two $1200 checks are given out and the other measures happen what happens if it drags out we are still shut down in two months, four months, six months? You just can't pay most the workforce to stay home for the rest of the year. Businesses can't be shut for months. Not without lasting effects on the economy. Plus the whole world is going through the same thing. The global economy that has been built up over the past 20 years is not functioning.
Plus all this spending by the government with people unable to buy much of anything beyond essentials. Will that trigger deflation, hyper inflation? And if either of those happen can the feds get it under control especially after firing all their bullets?
This is such uncharted territory without any history or past models to say this othat is likely the result of the above.
I think this is going to be similar to when Rome fell...yes, the US will come back, but it will look MUCH different.
Here in my state, the governor is hinting at 'stay at home' order starting on 3-30 and going for 3-4 weeks, the ONLY reason you can be out is if you are going to the grocery store, pharmacy or to care for someone in immediate need. Basically this will close all the restaurants (no drive thru or carry out), and everything else, except for grocery stores and pharmacies.
I think this is going to be similar to when Rome fell...yes, the US will come back, but it will look MUCH different.
Here in my state, the governor is hinting at 'stay at home' order starting on 3-30 and going for 3-4 weeks, the ONLY reason you can be out is if you are going to the grocery store, pharmacy or to care for someone in immediate need. Basically this will close all the restaurants (no drive thru or carry out), and everything else, except for grocery stores and pharmacies.
What policy makers don’t understand (or are afraid to acknowledge) is the fact that once closed, many businesses, large and small, will never return. Key employees are gone, customers take their business elsewhere, tax consequences, etc. It doesn’t matter how much money they throw at the problem, the “patient” is dead.
Some will argue that businesses fail all the time and that is true, most small startups never make it past five years. The key difference with this shutdown is the breadth of the problem. A large manufacturer can cope with the loss of a key supplier in a normal economy where alternatives are available. How do they deal with the loss of half of their suppliers? It’s a severe impact and might result in the failure of the large company.
Measles, mumps, rubella, polio, and especially smallpox would like to have a word with you.
Polio had almost vanished by the time the vaccine was introduced. The medical profession loves taking correct for natural herd immunity. Of course,
it is easy to rename diseases that have been "vanquished" because the viruses have mutated. As for the flu, NY had one of its worst flu seasons in years, vaccine and all. Miracle cures.
Polio had almost vanished by the time the vaccine was introduced.
No, it had not. Neither had measles. It was immunization that drove both of those diseases into extinction in the US (and smallpox into extinction globally), not “natural herd immunity.”
What policy makers don’t understand (or are afraid to acknowledge) is the fact that once closed, many businesses, large and small, will never return. Key employees are gone, customers take their business elsewhere, tax consequences, etc. It doesn’t matter how much money they throw at the problem, the “patient” is dead.
Some will argue that businesses fail all the time and that is true, most small startups never make it past five years. The key difference with this shutdown is the breadth of the problem. A large manufacturer can cope with the loss of a key supplier in a normal economy where alternatives are available. How do they deal with the loss of half of their suppliers? It’s a severe impact and might result in the failure of the large company.
Well, this is actually a GLOBAL disaster, like nothing people today have ever seen.
We may see some sectors doing well or even doing great, but overall, I think the fact that this is going to be so bad on the global scale, it will drag everything down with it, even those that are doing great.
What Im wondering, is how they are going to announce this to the general public (or if they even will), I think they may try to fool people into thinking things are better than they actually are, but that cannot last for too long, the GLOBAL impact of this virus is going to wreak havoc on EVERYTHING, and probably for a very long time.
In history, we have seen national collapses, but the world has NEVER seen a global financial collapse, Im not even sure what that is going to look like to be honest!
Look at the sharp declines in some of the REIT stocks, equities supposedly backed by commercial properties and rental income, you know those ”real” assets. The assets didn’t diminish in value, they were never worth that much to begin with, and the markets are finally calling their bluff.
What policy makers don’t understand (or are afraid to acknowledge) is the fact that once closed, many businesses, large and small, will never return. Key employees are gone, customers take their business elsewhere, tax consequences, etc. It doesn’t matter how much money they throw at the problem, the “patient” is dead.
Some will argue that businesses fail all the time and that is true, most small startups never make it past five years. The key difference with this shutdown is the breadth of the problem. A large manufacturer can cope with the loss of a key supplier in a normal economy where alternatives are available. How do they deal with the loss of half of their suppliers? It’s a severe impact and might result in the failure of the large company.
I had to bring some supplies to my elderly mom here in Arizona yesterday. When I was driving down the street I was observing all the businesses shut down. Small businesses mostly mom and pop variety. Many have been here for years and years and provide an income for the owners. But most are not getting rich. I see a future landscape with much fewer of these businesses. The national chains have deeper pockets, are traded publicly and might even be getting bailout money in some cases. Of those that survive they will take a much bigger market share. Then you have the landlords of these businesses which may or may not be getting rent April 1st or May 1st. Lots of them have loans to pay off and need the rental income to do that. Its a house of cards that may or may not remain standing.
I think this is going to be similar to when Rome fell...yes, the US will come back, but it will look MUCH different.
Here in my state, the governor is hinting at 'stay at home' order starting on 3-30 and going for 3-4 weeks, the ONLY reason you can be out is if you are going to the grocery store, pharmacy or to care for someone in immediate need. Basically this will close all the restaurants (no drive thru or carry out), and everything else, except for grocery stores and pharmacies.
Here in Arizona the numbers are going up very fast. And although most businesses are shut down there are still lots of people driving around. The governor here has resisted doing a shutdown like your state might. But I have this feeling he will give in soon.
Yes things will be much different. This will be a death blow to many businesses having trouble competing with Amazon and higher minimum wages even without the virus. And others that were suppose to be immune to online competition like gym's are now on shaky ground. In my city two supermarkets that closed were replaced by large gyms. One just barely opened just before the virus hit. I can see people cancelling memberships to save money and others being afraid to use a gym for at least a year or more even when they reopen. But companies selling smart bikes and other similar things will do well.
I think this is going to be similar to when Rome fell...yes, the US will come back, but it will look MUCH different.
Here in my state, the governor is hinting at 'stay at home' order starting on 3-30 and going for 3-4 weeks, the ONLY reason you can be out is if you are going to the grocery store, pharmacy or to care for someone in immediate need. Basically this will close all the restaurants (no drive thru or carry out), and everything else, except for grocery stores and pharmacies.
Here in Arizona the numbers are going up very fast. And although most businesses are shut down there are still lots of people driving around. The governor here has resisted doing a shutdown like your state might. But I have this feeling he will give in soon.
Yes things will be much different. This will be a death blow to many businesses having trouble competing with Amazon and higher minimum wages even without the virus. And others that were suppose to be immune to online competition like gym's are now on shaky ground. In my city two supermarkets that closed were replaced by large gyms. One just barely opened just before the virus hit. I can see people cancelling memberships to save money and others being afraid to use a gym for at least a year or more even when they reopen. But companies selling smart bikes and other similar things will do well.
I get his arguments but I feel it's going to be as bad as 2008 tops!! 2008 was pretty messed up so that is bad but Depression? I don't buy it.
I think a lot of people have forgotten how bad 2008 was, it was total carnage, people losing jobs and homes like flies!
Full depression? I don't buy that now that the package was passed: like you I would put it more in the category of 2008-09
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