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Doctors and scientists are now saying they believe Coronavirus will always be with us. People are starting to understand this virus is NOT like H1N1 and cold viruses. In serious cases it wrecks nearly all systems in the body and often leaves lasting damage.
Trying to operate an economy in the face of such a lethal virus, I think is going to necessitate these changes: brick and mortar buying is going to disappear except for the most necessary products like groceries and drugs. Online buying will explode. 95% of our purchases will have to be done online. Big growth areas will include delivery services like UPS and InstaCart for delivering all these goods. Restaurants, nail salons, coffee houses, gyms, movie theaters and other such "pleasure" establishments will have to shut down. Owners need to train for new occupations. Office workers will have to tele-commute. Buildings will be boarded up. Gasoline use will plummet as people spend their leisure time at home. The governments will have to institute a VAT for revenue like Europe already does.
These are just a few of a MANY changes I think are coming to our way of life. Anybody else have any other prognostications?
A mask, goggles, gloves, and face shield mandate would be for starters. In public and at home. Anyone who doesn't comply faces jail time like many local governments are doing already. If that doesn't work then possibly prison or the death penalty. Some experts are even recommending wearing masks and additional protective measures while engaging in intimate activities. If we take all of these necessary precautions and follow all orders by the authorities we might have this thing under control in 2 or 3 years. Safety first.
I think the health aspects Of Covid-19 will eventually be solved by time and a vaccine. The virus will eventually burn out and we can go back to normal travel and daily commerce. What is unknown are the long-term effects of small business failures, and the extreme levels of debt that were conjured by governments to stave off unrest and chaos. Commercial real estate and the losses associated with empty buildings will have to be addressed at some point. At the consumer level has the trance of mindless consumption been broken? That would be a true inflection point for the American economy.
I think the health aspects Of Covid-19 will eventually be solved by time and a vaccine. The virus will eventually burn out and we can go back to normal travel and daily commerce. What is unknown are the long-term effects of small business failures, and the extreme levels of debt that were conjured by governments to stave off unrest and chaos. Commercial real estate and the losses associated with empty buildings will have to be addressed at some point. At the consumer level has the trance of mindless consumption been broken? That would be a true inflection point for the American economy.
As a now retired doc, I generally agree with you. I believe that medicine will come through for us. More useful treatments of serious cases with monoclonal antibodies soon, and vaccines well within the year time frame. The most at risk patients like nursing home patients will willingly be our guinea pigs. I'm optimistic that within 2 years we will be back on track, and covid will be much more like our chronic Influenza problem.
As an ACE (arm chair economist) I think we will have a bit of an inflation up tick coming out of the pandemic. But in no way think it will be like the '70's.
As an ACE (arm chair economist) I think we will have a bit of an inflation up tick coming out of the pandemic. But in no way think it will be like the '70's.
Predicting and forecasting rates is a fools errand. Trying to time rates can't be done. It is a coin flip and best and probably not even that good. Noone knows where they will be.
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Covid-19 is a Minor economic tweak in history, but significant tweak for 3-5 yr span while we discover, deal with, treat, prevent, endure, stabilize spread.
We (USA) are in the early phase of discovery, while other nations are well into phase III and even beyond. Our lack of application of knowledge, and blatant disregard of others (and life) will have vast impact on USA world leadership and stability going forward In education, healthcare, finance, and commerce. Trust and respect is earnered though years of commitment and evidenced response. The last 11+ yrs of USA waffling does not offer a confused world much confidence or stability.
Hang on, stay focused, stay flexible, watch your back!
Too bad, since we (USA) had weeks and miles distance from Covid-19 and we COULD have mailed an effective response and solution and saved ourselves and much of the world much pain, death, economic lockdown, and trillions of unnecessarily spent $, which in turn could have been used for innovation and building economic growth and stability.
Opportunity is Down the drain, so to speak.
Just like USA public schools. Now is a perfect time to dismantle a proven failed system and rebuild from ground up. Any word of this? Not that I've heard. Same old response. Put a bandaid on it, and perpetuate failure, rather than make the right choice, one that will not come again for 100 yrs.
Last edited by StealthRabbit; 07-16-2020 at 10:57 AM..
Predicting and forecasting rates is a fools errand. Trying to time rates can't be done. It is a coin flip and best and probably not even that good. Noone knows where they will be.
Well I won't brag then. All I'd say is that I've been around a long time, and I and my advisors have been correct much more often than wrong.
By mid next year there will be widely available vaccinations for Covid19. Once enough people are immunized the virus will start to fade away.
Before then we will most likely have monoclonal AB treatments, giving much more hope to those at high risk for serious disease and hospitalization. Maybe within a few months.
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