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Ah, thanks for that. Very government-y. Brings back the good ol' days. I actually worked on economic-focused reports like that for NATO mucky mucks and the classification "instruction" regs were quite similar. "Need to Know" typically includes thousands of people, lol, because anyone who is working on anything related uses a bunch of reports for cross-reference.
Even though they are getting confidential reports, I have serious doubts the information they contain is only available in those reports. Classified information is often not so much secret stuff that no one else knows. More that the particular package or process that the information reveals would be dangerous or disruptive in the hands of those who would weaponize it.
It looks like that is the case with the FOMC classifications. The highest level, Class I, is the high level Fed internal deliberations which would include how they make decisions, how they operate, what comments they make to each other, and interestingly what alternative policy options they discussed (which is listed at the top... I wonder why that in particular is so guarded?). The lower levels Classes II and III are mostly the reports compiled for the Fed board that facilitate their Class I deliberations. That information is out there for people who want to look but not in the convenient packages that get presented to Powell et al.
Of course all that is classified because if someone were to get their hands on the information of precisely how that decision-making process worked, someone could use it to personally profit or release it to the public and undermine the legitimacy of the whole enterprise.
What is very likely not in those reports, is information that cannot be found anywhere else. If there was, the Fed would have known about things like the 2008 financial crisis beforehand and prevented it.
But maybe they do have access to some kind of infinity-stone level information, what do I know?
I'm not sure who you are trying to snow with all this, yourself or me.
I'm not sure who you are trying to snow with all this, yourself or me.
It's all for your pleasure my friend. I'm always heartened by your respectful discourse and democratic appreciation for perspectives beyond your own foregone conclusions.
It's all for your pleasure my friend. I'm always heartened by your respectful discourse and democratic appreciation for perspectives beyond your own foregone conclusions.
You have a. point. Three things in this context make me a little testy.
A. People who don't know that they are talking about but come on strong. Four posts back for an example.
B. People who allow personal politics to more or less define their thinking about economics and bastardize well understood economic constructs for political cover.
C. Internet/forum gamesmanship.
You are consistently guilty of B and sometimes C - like most of your least several posts in this thread.
You have a. point. Three things in this context make me a little testy.
A. People who don't know that they are talking about but come on strong. Four posts back for an example.
B. People who allow personal politics to more or less define their thinking about economics and bastardize well understood economic constructs for political cover.
C. Internet/forum gamesmanship.
You are consistently guilty of B and sometimes C - like most of your least several posts in this thread.
I take all those comments as compliments. Although coming on strong.... lol I don't think you've ever so much as indicated you're reconsidering something.
Economics is inherently political, my friend. It is politics in disguise as Hazel Henderson put it.
C-D and especially the Econ forum is overpopulated with white males over 60 who are retired engineers and similar types. I like to give them a dose of how people more native to the 21st century think. Although at least I remember the tail end of the 20th century. If you think I'm bad, you really don't want to hear what the kids have to say who are full 21st century natives.
Last edited by redguard57; 04-22-2021 at 10:06 PM..
I take all those comments as compliments. Although coming on strong.... lol I don't think you've ever so much as indicated you're reconsidering something.
Economics is inherently political, my friend. It is politics in disguise as Hazel Henderson put it.
C-D and especially the Econ forum is overpopulated with white males over 60 who are retired engineers and similar types. I like to give them a dose of how people more native to the 21st century think. Although at least I remember the tail end of the 20th century. If you think I'm bad, you really don't want to hear what the kids have to say who are full 21st century natives.
1. The coming on strong comment was not about you.
1.1. Tied to what we've been conversing about today I have an unorthodox but long and varied academic career in econ. under my belt and I'm on a bank board......which in part is why I know your claims about easy access to information/security clearances etc. vis a vis The Fed are straight up nonsense.
2. Econ. is inherently political. You use eon. as cover for your hard left ideas...........not the same. Economics is a set of sounds bites to you and not much else so far as I can tell.
3. Only a little older than your target, I have two adult kids - one mid-twenties, one later twenties and I know dozens of their friends. Many are democrats. Not one is as left as you. Not one is ageist. All are very happy.
1. The coming on strong comment was not about you.
1.1. Tied to what we've been conversing about today I have an unorthodox but long and varied academic career in econ. under my belt and I'm on a bank board......which in part is why I know your claims about easy access to information/security clearances etc. vis a vis The Fed are straight up nonsense.
2. Econ. is inherently political. You use eon. as cover for your hard left ideas...........not the same. Economics is a set of sounds bites to you and not much else so far as I can tell.
3. Only a little older than your target, I have two adult kids - one mid-twenties, one later twenties and I know dozens of their friends. Many are democrats. Not one is as left as you. Not one is ageist. All are very happy.
Maybe try interrogating their ideas deeper and see if that assumption holds. Not sure how many hours-long economic discussions you're having with your kids friends. Most Gen Z I talk to are quite a bit left of me, or at least what I was through 2019. But then I am liberal by Texas standards and live in Oregon now, so perhaps my exposure to Gen Z is not represenative.
I've become more left ever since covid and a number of macroeconomic assumptions I thought were axioms turned out not to be true. Maybe time will prove me wrong but doesn't seem so yet.
I didn't say it was easy to get at that information. I said it wasn't so secret that only the ephors of the Fed ever see it. Meaning the pieces that make up the whole of the reports. Of course we regular spartans never get access to the reports, but with enough effort, research skills, and a large staff we could put together a similar report.
If they had such clairvoyance provided by exclusive information from some palantir, those ringwraiths on the Fed would see to it we have a better economy than we do. With such superpowers they would never make a mistake like fail to see '08 coming.
Last edited by redguard57; 04-22-2021 at 11:55 PM..
what is the real reason?
does it really help anyone?
buy a house,buy a car ,r people who have credit card debt dont see any savings.
Fed buying treasury instruments every month?to keep rate low??
Or are we afraid if rate rises,foreign money will come in ?
what is the difference if rate is zero vs rate is 2%?
Not just keeping low, its build in inflate values. In 2000 rates were 7-8% and homes less. Today the rates are 2.5% and the home prices much more, the payments maybe just 25% higher for those 20 years.
Had the rates stuck at 7% we would not see homes prices like they are right now, its all manipulated by the government and Feds.
YES,when rate rises,home price falls,when rate falls,home price rises.
It is really no bargain.
And I dont see the credit card rate going lower,how much is it now ?14%
We won't give the currency to actual people beyond subsistence level. Those who have the inside track through connections, ownership, or privileged education and skills will get the good jobs. I don't think we're going to like the transition at all.
It will probably be a top 1% class that is rich and powerful beyond imagination and so disconnected from everyone else they don't even fathom what's wrong. We already have that.
Then the next 10-15% privileged ones who are pretty rich & own the right asset classes, but not the elites. We already have that too.
Then the next 30% middle class who do okay & occupy the decent jobs. We already have that.
Where it will fall really badly on are the lower 45-55%. Currently most of them can get jobs in the menial and semi-professional services. Although now about 1/4th of them can't with the pandemic effects. Increasingly, that share will expand. More and more will struggle to find stable jobs. We'll throw enough money at them so they don't starve, but they will basically be stagnant without much hope of ever moving up. I'm not sure what will happen but I bet it won't be good. Probably a lot of tension & unrest among the lower classes, the way Europe was in the 19th century. Again we're already seeing it with this urban unrest.
Where there would be MAJOR unrest is if the middle classes start to perceive that they're become lower class. That's the stuff revolutions are made of - they tend not to come from the lower class, they come from former aspiring classes that no longer have options and are aggrieved. It'll be at that point I think much money will get thrown at them, because there will be more than enough money to throw.
As for who will do the grunt work, that's easy - immigrants. Citizenship of the privileged countries will be something to work toward. This will also cause conflict. See again, Europe 19th century.
That is what we have now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AKA Bubbleup
I'm sure there are other examples but Japan at one point (when their economy was especially stagnant) had a negative interest rate (where banks actually pay you to borrow money).
does inflation really make rate rises?
or is it the chicken or the egg?
technology makes us more productive,back then I read it would take almost one month to build a truck in China,now look at them.
back then they wll tear apart an old Deere tractor and make their own,now Deere has a factory there.
But then why are we paying 30-55 K for a car when back then a $3k car is a lot of money,me think because there is more heathcare cost in a car than steel.
Yes.
Hyper-simplified............
Relative to the ten year bond as inflation sets in commodity prices increase and some portion of bond buying appetite rotates into plays offering commodity price exposure*. The softening demand for bonds causes prices to drop and yields to increase - ergo bits like fixed rate mortgage APR/APY increase.
More or less simultaneously The Fed. will note commodity price upticks but typically not bump-up the discount rate until labor costs increases begin to outstrip productivity gains.
*There's lots of money to be made in inflationary expansions.
The Fed is trumped these days by what the market does anyway. Inflationary expectations force rate rises which in turn counter the upcoming inflation. The market is much more efficient than in the early 1970's.
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