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Sorry, but I don't see a truly ROBUST economy showing no signs of slowing down. I only see price deviations due to the supply shock scenarios. What’s really behind this upside is unprecedented direct government intervention, payments to businesses and consumers extending into trillions. But no matter how many trillions you pour into it, if the economy has been seriously damaged the most that will come out is a transitory price history. Because of direct government influence demand rebounded more quickly than supply causing the obvious imbalance. This has created false assumption of economic overheating and inflation.
You can't have REFLATION before DEFLATION. Knuckleheads at the FED should know this. This phony reflation is temporary and artificial.
Federal Reserve/government pawns pre Covid: "ThErEs n0 1nFlAtIoN!!!!"
Federal Reserve/government pawns now: 1nFlAtI0n iS tRanSiToRy!!!"
The rapidly rising prices are not due to the economy "opening up" or a bottleneck in supply chains; they are due to the trillions of dollars of funny money printed out of thin air with no corresponding increase in energy and productivity. And really, we're probably just now starting to feel Obama's inflation. We haven't even caught up with Trump's inflation, and by the time we get to Biden's inflation, the USD will be confetti!
Sorry, but nothing meaningful has changed for the better or at the very least the lessening of deflation because of FUNNY MONEY. If anything, there’s a pile of factors to indicate worse. The mainstream media narrative "INFLATION, INFLATION, INFLATION" doesn’t represent reality. You have to watch what the BANKING CARTEL is doing and during Q1 the banking system added $60 billion in safe fixed income assets like TREASURIES AND AGENCIES. Now why would the BANKING CRIMINAL CARTEL do quite a lot of the buying when these very assets were supposedly not worth touching with a 10-foot pole? Why BANKING CARTEL is saying YES to safety in a big way and NO to risk-taking in a bigger way??? Loans are declining and NOT increasing.
Is this because BANKERS fear out-of-control inflation over everything else? I don't think so. They are piling into Treasuries and keeping those yields low, fear liquidity. They fear an economy that isn’t recovering as it was supposed to. They fear the overall risks that run in the opposite direction, the very real possibility of another monetary event (dollar shortage) and finding it prudent to prioritize safety above everything else, continue to de-risk the collective balance sheet.
Deflation is what makes Bankers and the FED awake at night, not Inflation.
Sorry, but nothing meaningful has changed for the better or at the very least the lessening of deflation because of FUNNY MONEY. If anything, there’s a pile of factors to indicate worse. The mainstream media narrative "INFLATION, INFLATION, INFLATION" doesn’t represent reality. You have to watch what the BANKING CARTEL is doing and during Q1 the banking system added $60 billion in safe fixed income assets like TREASURIES AND AGENCIES. Now why would the BANKING CRIMINAL CARTEL do quite a lot of the buying when these very assets were supposedly not worth touching with a 10-foot pole? Why BANKING CARTEL is saying YES to safety in a big way and NO to risk-taking in a bigger way??? Loans are declining and NOT increasing.
Is this because BANKERS fear out-of-control inflation over everything else? I don't think so. They are piling into Treasuries and keeping those yields low, fear liquidity. They fear an economy that isn’t recovering as it was supposed to. They fear the overall risks that run in the opposite direction, the very real possibility of another monetary event (dollar shortage) and finding it prudent to prioritize safety above everything else, continue to de-risk the collective balance sheet.
Deflation is what makes Bankers and the FED awake at night, not Inflation.
Good Luck!
Deflation isn't just unlikely, it's almost impossible in a system where central banks have unlimited printing power.
The last time we had a proper deflation was in the early 30s, and that was because we had the discipline of a gold standard. The Federal Reserve couldn't go "brrrr" like they do now.
Inflation, properly defined, is the expansion of the money supply. The Fed will keep expanding the money supply (inflating) indefinitely, they won't stop until the USD is confetti.
Last edited by Taggerung; 06-28-2021 at 12:03 AM..
Deflation isn't just unlikely, it's almost impossible in a system where central banks have unlimited printing power.
The last time we had a proper deflation was in the early 30s, and that was because we had the discipline of a gold standard. The Federal Reserve couldn't go "brrrr" like they do now.
Inflation, properly defined, is the expansion of the money supply. The Fed will keep expanding the money supply (inflating) indefinitely, they won't stop until the USD is confetti.
The Fed was created to fight Deflation, but that is a WAR they can NEVER win. The FED managed to delay or postpone our scheduled DEFLATION from 2001-PRESENT using various shenanigans, QE, ZIRP and etc. But no matter how much money they throw away inside the black hole, money stollen from the future, from our kids and grandkids DEFLATION WILL HAVE THE LAST LAUGH. It’s impossible for the Fed to win the WAR against Deflation. Mother Nature would NEVER allow it.
The Fed was created to fight Deflation, but that is a WAR they can NEVER win. The FED managed to delay or postpone our scheduled DEFLATION from 2001-PRESENT using various shenanigans, QE, ZIRP and etc. But no matter how much money they throw away inside the black hole, money stollen from the future, from our kids and grandkids DEFLATION WILL HAVE THE LAST LAUGH. It’s impossible for the Fed to win the WAR against Deflation. Mother Nature would NEVER allow it.
Good Luck!
Replace the word "deflation" with "contraction" and I fully agree.
Your co. needs to fire those experts. Short of a shooting war with Canada or some other Crazy Ivan event there is essentially zero chance of recession this year or early next year. Everything points to the economy being too hot in the short and medium terms not too cold and if the Fed. must cause a recession in order to fight off inflation cause and effect would take 18-24 mos.
Also your grocery tab isn't up 30% in six months unless you buy really oddball foods.
Many of the largest US corporations use the same experts.
It was $200 a week or less for 3.5 people. We have not changed what we buy, but we are now spending $300 a week on groceries. Nearly everything has gone up. The only ones I am specifically aware of are bacon and almond milk. Oh and toilet paper/paper towels - up massively. However it cannot be just those few items. I am pretty sure just about everything is up. Gasoline is also up 30%, lumber more than 30%. It is hard to identify anything we typically pay for that is not up about 30%. Utilities are down because we use less, and homeowners insurance is down to 1/3 of what it was due to changing companies. Mortgage interest rates dropped so low we refinanced and not only pay more principal, but pay less on a monthly basis. Those help offset everything else going through the roof.
The CBs are worried about their asset bubbles popping. It is the pottery barn rule in force since the early 2000's. That is the deflation that they're worried about because the consumption is so dependent on equity extraction. So there is inflating or reflating of bubbles, just like the ones we have with equities, housing, and bonds. Nice work with corporate junk bonds now sporting negative yields. When central banks buy over 100 percent of new issues in government, mortgage, and inflation-protected bonds, the money has to go somewhere else.
There is no before or after. It is just a repeating cycle of intervention. There have been at least seven or eight interventions since 2009. Several hedge funds had to be bailed out this year and the regulatory malfeasance covered up. In return, the central banks increase the purchases to reward the banks for sweeping them under the carpet.
Many of the largest US corporations use the same experts.
It was $200 a week or less for 3.5 people. We have not changed what we buy, but we are now spending $300 a week on groceries. Nearly everything has gone up. The only ones I am specifically aware of are bacon and almond milk. Oh and toilet paper/paper towels - up massively. However it cannot be just those few items. I am pretty sure just about everything is up. Gasoline is also up 30%, lumber more than 30%. It is hard to identify anything we typically pay for that is not up about 30%. Utilities are down because we use less, and homeowners insurance is down to 1/3 of what it was due to changing companies. Mortgage interest rates dropped so low we refinanced and not only pay more principal, but pay less on a monthly basis. Those help offset everything else going through the roof.
Those corporations should fire the experts as well.
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Not sure where you are shopping or what your normal grocery buy is on a weekly basis. However, yoy food inflation has been running about 3.5-5% overall. Not 33.33333.....%.
At home food prices May '20 - May '21 were up .7% according to The USDA's Economic Research Team.
we all eat too much anyway,so it is time to cut back,drink water instead of soda,skip the chips and order just a sandwich.
when you get home,you can make up by raiding the fridge for soda,ice cream,cake,fruit
Deflation isn't just unlikely, it's almost impossible in a system where central banks have unlimited printing power.
The last time we had a proper deflation was in the early 30s, and that was because we had the discipline of a gold standard. The Federal Reserve couldn't go "brrrr" like they do now.
Inflation, properly defined, is the expansion of the money supply. The Fed will keep expanding the money supply (inflating) indefinitely, they won't stop until the USD is confetti.
Its unlikely or almost impossible for a multi many year period (Like more than 2 years) if the Federal reserve can print money (yes electronically adding to money supply counts as printing money even if it is not printing physical paper bills) and does so.
However 1-2 year period of deflation could very well happen and has happened before like during 2009.
Unless you count all prices falling despite increasing money supply for 1-2 years just contraction instead of deflation.
I hope the money the FED is printing goes to places it is not spent or cannot be spent and we have massive deflation. Were overdue stealing from our grand kids and hard working savers who want large down payments on homes without being mortgaged to the wazzo or those that want to live in a tent or cracker box apartment so they can save money rapidly to pay cahs in full for their home by working multiple jobs.
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