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Conventional oil production. The US has never and will never surpass its 1970 conventional oil production peak (ie, not including shale and offshore oil, because those are unconventional sources of oil production).
Conventional, unconventional, it doesn't matter. Production is production.
You can only plant so many trees at once. The rate of tree planting if fixed. Therefore no infinite growth in the lumber industry.
Okay, so we have an infinite supply but we cant extract it at an infinite rate. But we dont need to. I bet when the population was a fraction of its current size people complained about how it is overpopulated and we will run out of resources. The earth is a long way away from not having the resources to manage its population.
Okay, so we have an infinite supply but we cant extract it at an infinite rate. But we dont need to. I bet when the population was a fraction of its current size people complained about how it is overpopulated and we will run out of resources. The earth is a long way away from not having the resources to manage its population.
Rate of extraction is what matters most here. You need to be able to increase rate of extraction if you want growth. Because rate is fixed, not growth can happen beyond a certain point. There is a ceiling.
I remember attending a college presentation back in the late 1970s where the speaker predicted that we would run out of oil in the early 200s. He was a proponent of fusion energy.
Every 10 years or so National Geographic comes out with their regular Peak Oil special issue. The World in Crisis.
Rate of extraction is what matters most here. You need to be able to increase rate of extraction if you want growth. Because rate is fixed, not growth can happen beyond a certain point. There is a ceiling.
Okay, so we have an infinite supply but we cant extract it at an infinite rate. But we dont need to. I bet when the population was a fraction of its current size people complained about how it is overpopulated and we will run out of resources. The earth is a long way away from not having the resources to manage its population.
Did people worry about future generations running to of wood so we have to start cutting back on fire? Didn't think so.
Conventional oil production. The US has never and will never surpass its 1970 conventional oil production peak (ie, not including shale and offshore oil, because those are unconventional sources of oil production).
I just filled up with "unconventional" oil. Took me just as many miles.
Peak general (conventional+unconventional) global oil production: 2018 (most likely).
The wait is over. Peak oil is most likely behind us, not in front of us.
Why should I believe THIS prediction. In 2017 you most likely would have said peak oil has happened, but it wasn't. Who is to say there is not another peak a few years down the road? Who predicted shale oil in the 80s?
Did people worry about future generations running to of wood so we have to start cutting back on fire? Didn't think so.
As a Forester......not sure anybody cut back, but it was a major issue and yes, things changed.
It is the reason the German foresters came up with sustain yield concept.
It is the reason the National Forest system was established in the US.
Many more examples in other countries.
Britain almost lost WWII due to a lack of paper, and established forestry schools and forests in Britain so they would not run out of paper.
Then foresters became the "excess" supply and I ran into them at graduate school at the University of British Columbia. At that point, Britain had plenty of paper and forests and a excess of foresters so they all immigrated to Canada.
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