Her face is changing (bankruptcy, debt, mortgage, buy)

[Wild Style]

Ok,

Who's face right? Well the face of America is changing, thats who. High energy cost, stalling economy, peak oil. We are on the cusp of a shift in living and technology. Sort of like the shift to every home having a computer and the internet age. Anyway found this piece and thought I would share it with you all. Seems we all speak about this issue a LOT or issues that directly relate to it

link

[baystater]

Thank You for the article.

I think the Krugman is pretty much spot on. In fact I already been a move toward more urban environment with a lot of the kids my age (Gen X) and younger for the past 10 years. I give you a good example I currently live just out side of Manhattan in NJ. There is this area close to me that is called Hoboken and it just across the Hudson from the island. This town/city has a very young and vibrant population. Most are either strait out of college or are just starting a family. Their plenty of convinces for people. Stores to shop at, tons of restaurants, lot of specialty stores, and of course plenty of bars for night life. This is a far cry from what Hoboken looked like 15 - 20 years a go. ( at least that what I get from the old-timers that are still left in the area.) When the place somewhat high crime and plenty of homeless. I guess it was a pretty tough neighborhood to grow up in back in the day. But now it rock'in and full of life and low crime and for the most part people are very happy to live there and the town is extremely desirable place to live now. Oh and I forgot theres plenty of public transportation in the way of trains, buses, and ferry's.
I think your going to see more Hoboken's across the nation. Gen x, y, and the millenniums will pick up root from suburbia and move to more urban areas. with plenty of public transport.

But as for me man. I be honest I hate urban environments and would much rather live in a suburbia or semi rural area. No matter the cost and inconvenience. I personally want to get back to my little beach town far outside of Boston. Away from all the hustle and bustle. Where quiet reigns supreme for 8 month out of the year. Of course 4 months are an absolute madhouse with summer folk. But I willing to deal with it.

[Niners fan]

From the article:
"Admittedly, the next few years will be rough for families who bought big vehicles when gas was cheap, and now find themselves the owners of white elephants with little trade-in value. But raising fuel efficiency is something we can and will do."

Can we get Congress to approve a bailout for SUV owners?

I think there was a movement back towards downtown areas in cities around the country. It is an interesting article but it's not to hard to make that prediction. Cutting down on driving is a natural, market-force reaction that we'll definitely see more of if gas prices remain high. If prices drop, even to $3 per gallon or so, then the changes we are starting to see now will be short-lived. Americans tend to have a short memory on things like this.

[Philip T]

Overall the article seemed to soft-sell the concept. But maybe that is the only way it does not put folks into the abiotic nonsense or 500 mpg carb craze?

From the article >>>

But we’re living in a world in which oil prices keep setting records, in which the idea that global oil production will soon peak is rapidly moving from fringe belief to mainstream assumption.

Seems actual real world production hit Peak about 2 years ago, now, right? 2005 and 2006 were Peak and production is down and prices are up since.

Did not see why the model proposed was to do less of the messed up thing (ie burn oil) rather than stop doing stupid (and paying big to do so) and just get off the oil. But maybe that is all the public can bear to hear, as well?

[Wild Style]

Great responses,

I am moving my family back to NYC soon (if any of these job interviews i went on pan out). I see urban living far more sustainable than suburbia. I also think scooters and motorcycles are going to pick up in the coming years as well. I saw something that said with in the last 3 yrs (starting in 2005) scooter sales went from 2,000 a year to 150,000 a year. In Europe, Asia and Latin America scooters sales top in the million range per year. Times are changing, I just don't think people really comprehend how permanent a lot of what we are seeing today is.

[evilnewbie]

The guy is certainly no psychic and his ideas are unfortunately incredibly wrong... he thinks rising gas prices will be the death of the SUV... it is NOT! Instead of consuming larger amounts of gas, SUV's are starting to become hybrids with mpgs getting closer to their German small car counterpart. I have been to Europe and I see a LOT of small cars but it is a changing face, more and more SUVs are lining their roads (not less). With better fuel-saving technology, SUVs will continue adapt to the changing market. The only thing that will be extinct are older SUVs but then cars have lifespans typically less than 10 years anyhow (by lifespan I mean the average years of ownership before purchasing a new car)... so no big whoop...

[Philip T]

Other Trend lines . . .

What’s next for the economy? Look at California - Financial Week

What’s next for the economy? Look at California
Tough times in world's seventh largest ecomomy: consumer spending down, unemployment up, municipalities going bust

[Wild Style]

Isn't Vallejo California on the verge of filing for bankruptcy? The first municipality in U.S. history!

But beyond the implications for banks, California can really be seen as the testing ground for what the U.S. consumer looks like in coming years, and how he or she manages. If, somehow, the move from spending to savings can be done gradually, the downturn in the United States may be gentle.

I don't see how this part is remotely possible. If people are in HUGE amounts of debt, how in the hell can they save?

I think NYC is going to take a HUGE beating too in the coming years, seeing as who it was the epicenter for the mortgage trading.

[tallrick]

Originally Posted by Wild Style

Isn't Vallejo California on the verge of filing for bankruptcy? The first municipality in U.S. history!

Maybe the first to file, but not the first city to go bankrupt, Miami was and will be again really soon!

What happens when a city goes bankrupt? - By Daniel Engber - Slate Magazine

I think that cities are becoming obsolete- there are few if any factories so why would anyone need to live in a city other than being a servant in a service job? Urban areas are far too expensive for the low quality of life they offer. Their high costs put them at a disadvantage in the world market. My preference is for rural areas. You enjoy space, and close access to food, and eventually energy too. People can have their sardine urban living, in my kind of world most would live on a farm and enjoy high-speed internet access for a "virtual" office to buy and sell. Those who prefer cities would find a more affordable urban environment with fewer restrictions than now.

[Wild Style]

^^
I DID NOT KNOW THAT!!!! Sort of not shocked though.

I was just in NYC (I am from there originally) this past week. To argue that urban living doesn't have benefits really isn't true. To say you prefer rural living is another thing though.