WOW bailout not passing, DOW CRASHING

[Woof]

Originally Posted by baystater

.....One last thing. I been on the business forum for better part of two years and it only been in the last week since all these folks have come on this board, pretending that hey know what there fook talking about. Or worse yet panicking over having to deal with our nation's excesses. The majority of these post makes me realize that even if a bad down turn...I can make LOTS of money on people irrational fears and ignorant misjudgments.

As Don King says "ONLY IN AMERICA!"

Originally Posted by 11thHour

Yeah, Beck isn't helping.

Buy low, sell high..not vice versa.

You're both assuming that the economy and US in general are both fundamentally healthy, so that this is simply another business cycle like past ones - we'll weather the storm, and come back stronger.

I've seen evidence that the US has gone past a robust middle age, and is generally going to decline from now on. It will make comebacks, but generally everything will trend downward.

This has to do with peak oil eventually passing (I think they've made about the last big discoveries, while know resources are dwindling quickly), increased demand for oil from developing countries and growing world population, and more speculatively increased climate destabilization (whichever way it goes in the end, warmer or cooler .... we seem to have been in an unusually mild climate historically speaking.

So after this coming depression, we will recover as oil costs temporarily drop due to reduced demand, but that can only happen for so long, we won't recover as much as before .... eventually the easy energy will be lacking to come back fully. That will cause tremendous increases in the cost of food - growing it and shipping it. And in the cost of manufactured goods. And climate change will stress agriculture, cause increased numbers of damaging hurricanes and tornados, and cause increased demand for heating/cooling.

My guess is that we're going under for the first time, in a few years we'll go under for the second time, and then maybe a decade or two from now we'll go under for the last time.

[ArizonaBear]

Originally Posted by Woof

You're both assuming that the economy and US in general are both fundamentally healthy, so that this is simply another business cycle like past ones - we'll weather the storm, and come back stronger.

I've seen evidence that the US has gone past a robust middle age, and is generally going to decline from now on. It will make comebacks, but generally everything will trend downward.

This has to do with peak oil eventually passing (I think they've made about the last big discoveries, while know resources are dwindling quickly), increased demand for oil from developing countries and growing world population, and more speculatively increased climate destabilization (whichever way it goes in the end, warmer or cooler .... we seem to have been in an unusually mild climate historically speaking.

So after this coming depression, we will recover as oil costs temporarily drop due to reduced demand, but that can only happen for so long, we won't recover as much as before .... eventually the easy energy will be lacking to come back fully. That will cause tremendous increases in the cost of food - growing it and shipping it. And in the cost of manufactured goods. And climate change will stress agriculture, cause increased numbers of damaging hurricanes and tornados, and cause increased demand for heating/cooling.

My guess is that we're going under for the first time, in a few years we'll go under for the second time, and then maybe a decade or two from now we'll go under for the last time.

Actually: it is nations like China that may be in deep doo-doo. Why I say that is maybe 10% of China's population is Middle Class or higher with over 1 billion poor Chinese becoming resentful and maybe getting ready to pull another 'Cultural Revolution'.

Too: the birthrate is crashing down to replacement levels worldwide with the exceptions of parts of Africa and the Middle East.

As for oil supplies: the First World; if it were serious, could do coal gassification which would break the back of OPEC.

I am looking at the glass being half full in all fairness

[Woof Woof Woof!]

Well, I've decided to take up drinking again. Pour me another glass... *hiccup*

[Lulu101]

I think it's also that there's more people in the US, thus a lower quality of life. It was 250 million a couple decades ago, now 300 million. Cities that used to be nice are getting overcrowded.

Originally Posted by Woof

You're both assuming that the economy and US in general are both fundamentally healthy, so that this is simply another business cycle like past ones - we'll weather the storm, and come back stronger.

I've seen evidence that the US has gone past a robust middle age, and is generally going to decline from now on. It will make comebacks, but generally everything will trend downward.

This has to do with peak oil eventually passing (I think they've made about the last big discoveries, while know resources are dwindling quickly), increased demand for oil from developing countries and growing world population, and more speculatively increased climate destabilization (whichever way it goes in the end, warmer or cooler .... we seem to have been in an unusually mild climate historically speaking.

So after this coming depression, we will recover as oil costs temporarily drop due to reduced demand, but that can only happen for so long, we won't recover as much as before .... eventually the easy energy will be lacking to come back fully. That will cause tremendous increases in the cost of food - growing it and shipping it. And in the cost of manufactured goods. And climate change will stress agriculture, cause increased numbers of damaging hurricanes and tornados, and cause increased demand for heating/cooling.

My guess is that we're going under for the first time, in a few years we'll go under for the second time, and then maybe a decade or two from now we'll go under for the last time.