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Old 11-07-2008, 04:17 PM
 
Location: Keller, TX
5,658 posts, read 6,278,689 times
Reputation: 4111

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Quote:
Originally Posted by SouthCali4LifeSD View Post
maybe you're the crackhead for being so optimistic about the current american economy. you've been nothing but wrong while me and many others have said when the dow was at 12,000 that it will trickle down towards the 6,000s, and it's more then half way there. hindsight bias is a b.i.t.c.h i guess, right?
Nothing but wrong?

I'm not optimistic about the economy. I'm realistic. It's not the end of the damned world. I'm not canning foods, collecting ammo, etc. I'm spending less, making daily money on the market, working harder and longer hours at work, and paying more attention. It's a recession. Get used to it.

I've done well trading the ups and downs as well. The market isn't really the economy either. When it hit 9000 I said I didn't see us going below 9000 for the next week or so. It didn't. I did predict a modest bump the morning after the election. It didn't happen, so I sold my long and bought short and profited for two days. In the thread predicting the bottom from weeks ago, I voted for 7700-8000.

I just got approved for options trading, bought five -DJXKL at 2.78 and sold for 3.20, making $190. I'll be doing a lot more options trading as I've seen 400% swings in one day for some of these. I'm prepared to profit on market directions either way.

If you're predicting 6000s, are you putting money on it?? You should, if you're so sure -- you could make out like a bandit. I'm not, and I'm not putting money on 11000 right now either. I'm not buying and holding ANYthing right now. I'm a day trader now. My 401K is extremely conservative (bond funds and global balanced) while my brokerage is extremely short-term/aggressive.

What I like to see is sober thought and discussion about realistic scenarios. Ridiculous pessimism and ridiculous optimism don't get us anywhere, do they? I apologize for referring to you as a crackhead. I shouldn't have used that kind of sentiment or language. I'm sorry if I MISread the intent of your thread -- it looked like a one day prediction of a one-time piece of specific news. Thanks.
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Old 11-07-2008, 04:26 PM
 
Location: Keller, TX
5,658 posts, read 6,278,689 times
Reputation: 4111
Quote:
Originally Posted by SouthCali4LifeSD View Post
NO, nepenthe, the WORST THEN EXPECTED job report is the PERFECT barometer for the current state of our economy and it's OBVIOUSLY getting worse, that's my point. when i said the worst crash in recent memory, i mean WORSE then 2000-2002 and 1987. Obviously CRASHES don't necessitate a ONE DAY DOOM AND GLOOM DROP. i am referring to a long term deepening recession that will see unemployment eventually hit 9 and 10% and a dow at 5 or 6,000 before anything turns around. maybe my posting did sound like i was referring to a friday crash. no, i'm not stupid enough to make short term predictions, although i can use evidence to support them, but long term, don't act like anything is getting better anytime soon!
The word is "worse" not "worst." And the word is "than" not "then."

Some things will get better, some will get worse. Some things the market is already EXPECTING. Again, I apologize if I misinterpreted your thread.

I think you should look at putting some real money on the market dropping. Look at the new 3X inverse ETFs, look at buying index and equity Puts. You seem to have a strong conviction that 5000 or 6000 is coming, so get a move on and make yourself some big money on it!

I agree though that a crash in today's environment won't necessarily be a one day 1929/1987-style drop. It would be layered, as we've already seen so far. Up 900, down 300, down 400, down 250, up 400, down 700, etc. -- AWESOME intraday profit potentials!!

In some way, I see day trading the pure chart movements as a hedge against the OVERALL downward trend. And I like it.
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Old 11-07-2008, 04:35 PM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,052 posts, read 84,509,263 times
Reputation: 27720
While there's day trading, I'm also looking for some good solid stocks that will weather this storm and come back with full force. Also looking at solar energy stocks but they are still trading too high.

I'm not buying long term yet, but am following those that I plan to buy for holding and will be ready to jump in when it's time which I think will be sometime next year.
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Old 11-09-2008, 06:18 PM
 
48,502 posts, read 96,877,697 times
Reputation: 18304
I think the thing that worries the markets alot if that now unlike the past we have huge numbers of peole in the markets by way of 401 etc. Many have loss so much that it is feared that like the 30's depression ;many will never come back into the markets.There are alot of discusions by companies on how to savbe guard retirement accouts of those that are only into retiremant accounts.
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