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Old 01-06-2009, 07:59 PM
 
Location: Earth Wanderer, longing for the stars.
12,408 posts, read 16,947,052 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KCfromNC View Post
What happens to all of the vacant houses they leave behind? One - they get added to the "for sale" pool, driving down prices and therefore equivalent rents. Two - they get picked up by investors and rented out, adding to the supply of rentals on the market. I guess there's also option 3 - bulldoze them and let the land go back to nature, but I can't see that being popular.

Also, keep in mind that number of people per household goes up during recessions, so "move in with mom and dad" happens enough to change the number of rentals needed.
It is much harder to buy a house today. Many cannot find mortgages.
You are correct, though. Right now, if you can buy, you can probably charge a high rent and get a nice return on your investment. If rents start declining you can sell the house but it is hard to tell where the prices will be down the road.
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Old 01-06-2009, 09:30 PM
 
1,989 posts, read 4,021,289 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trishguard View Post
Are those dates right?
Sorry for going dormant. You caught the typo. Not used to "2009" yet. Here are the corrected dates, amounts and a link (in case anyone wants to see more info on the flip gone wrong.)

Sep 25, 2008 Sold $535,000
Nov 07, 2008 Listed $579,000
Jan 06, 2009 Reduced $539,000

1135 Green Bay Rd, HIGHLAND PARK, IL 60035 | MLS# 07068483
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Old 01-06-2009, 09:44 PM
 
Location: Full time RV"er
2,403 posts, read 5,918,384 times
Reputation: 1476
Quote:
Originally Posted by goldengrain View Post
It is much harder to buy a house today. Many cannot find mortgages.
You are correct, though. Right now, if you can buy, you can probably charge a high rent and get a nice return on your investment. If rents start declining you can sell the house but it is hard to tell where the prices will be down the road.
If they can't afford the MTg. how are they going to pay the "HIGH" rent's ???? And "If" they lost the home because they lost their job how do they pay those "HIGH " rent's ????
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Old 01-06-2009, 10:39 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles Area
3,306 posts, read 3,557,484 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chuck22b View Post
Yes, all of this really suxs for people who just want to live life and get on with their lives. If the rise took 7-8 years... then that pretty much means anybody who bought in the last 7-8 years will eventually be underwater or have values lower than their mortgages. Isn't the average tenure of homeowners around 7-8 years? So, doesn't that mean that "most" people with homes are probably going to be under water?
Most people in bubble areas yes, but not necessarily in other areas. I don't think the people that purchased in say Texas a few years ago with decent down payments with amortizing loans have much to worry about in terms of being underwater after 7~8 years of ownership.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chuck22b View Post
Furthermore, for those who want to get that "deal", and have been waiting 7-8 years til peak 2006/2007... you still probably have until 2011-2012 until we potentially (predicted) get out of this mess.
Well that depends where you are, I think purchasing later this year could be relatively safe in many areas. Of course you're going to have to wait longer in areas like California.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chuck22b View Post
So, a total of ~11-12 years of waiting time from 2000 to 2011/2012 so that you can buy a house that breaks even in Real terms. Or, put it into someone's life terms... the difference between having a house at age 30 or age 41/42.... or going to a four year college almost three times or the duration of getting a doctorate...
Essentially in the bubble areas, you were going to either have to wait or over pay. There was always another option though - move. I think its remarkable that so few people that purchased pre-bubble didn't cash out and move out of state and purchase cash. Instead, they took out home equity loans. Very remarkable...a once in a life time opportunity to make 100's of thousands of bucks.
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Old 01-07-2009, 09:00 AM
 
1,831 posts, read 4,868,203 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Humanoid View Post
This housing bubble took 7~8 years to grow, its going to take many years to collapse.
A lot of people think this will mostly be over by 2012. When you think about it ... prices started going down back in 2005-2006 after the peak. By 2011 we'll already be into this at least five to six years so ...

I'm not banking on prices getting much lower after 2011.
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Old 01-07-2009, 09:21 AM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC
2,193 posts, read 4,616,354 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sheri257 View Post
A lot of people think this will mostly be over by 2012. When you think about it ... prices started going down back in 2005-2006 after the peak. By 2011 we'll already be into this at least five to six years so ...

I'm not banking on prices getting much lower after 2011.
Some areas though didn't peak until 2007 even up until Jan 2008.

Charlotte and MD were like that.
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Old 01-07-2009, 09:23 AM
 
1,831 posts, read 4,868,203 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cohdane View Post
Hope I'm not being massively redundant here, but I'll take a chance since I've only posted this on Real Estate Forum. This interactive map by the New York Fed will let you (roughly) track Alt A conditions in your zip code. Pay special attention to the "6 month change" tab, which lets you see where the trend is:

http://www.newyorkfed.org/mortgagemaps/

Hope it's useful.
Am I reading this right? When I put in the zip code where I want to buy (93908) for Alt-A ...

The current chart is red (bad) but ... when I put in the six month change it turns green, indicating improvement.

Am I missing something?
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Old 01-07-2009, 09:46 AM
 
Location: Martinsville, NJ
6,162 posts, read 11,548,442 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sheri257 View Post
Am I reading this right? When I put in the zip code where I want to buy (93908) for Alt-A ...

The current chart is red (bad) but ... when I put in the six month change it turns green, indicating improvement.

Am I missing something?
It's gotten better than it was, but it's still not good.

It's sort of like, you were in a car accident, and got trapped in the car. That was really bad. Then, they used the jaws of life, got you out of the car before it exploded. So now it's better, but it would be wrong to classify those broken ribs, punctured lung and lacerated scalp as good.
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Old 01-07-2009, 10:30 AM
 
Location: Humboldt Park, Chicago
2,686 posts, read 7,138,539 times
Reputation: 1187
Default Highland Park flip

Cohdane,

Interesting property in Highland Park. I actually like it alot, except the $11K/yr property taxes. Wow.

I suspect it ends up selling for $450-500K. Nice property though in a great area. Hopefully, there is a way to get those taxes reduced, especially with a lower purchase price. No way they get anything close to $539K for it.

If that thing is still on the market in another 6-12 months, maybe I will take a serious look at it.
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Old 01-07-2009, 11:36 AM
 
1,831 posts, read 4,868,203 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Keegan View Post
It's gotten better than it was, but it's still not good.

It's sort of like, you were in a car accident, and got trapped in the car. That was really bad. Then, they used the jaws of life, got you out of the car before it exploded. So now it's better, but it would be wrong to classify those broken ribs, punctured lung and lacerated scalp as good.
Ok but ... the Alt-A loans are supposed to get a lot worse this year, right?

If the area where I want to buy isn't getting worse then, I can't count on huge price drops, right?
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