U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Covid-19 Information Page
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 12-27-2008, 06:59 PM
 
Location: where you sip the tea of the breasts of the spinsters of Utica
8,299 posts, read 12,552,233 times
Reputation: 8057

Advertisements

U.S. Has 50% Chance of Depression, Economist Roger Farmer Says
Email | Print | A A A


By Vivien Lou Chen
Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy has a 50 percent chance of falling into a depression during the next three years, said Roger Farmer, a member of the National Bureau of Economic Research’s economic fluctuations and growth program.

“There’s a significant probability things will get worse,” Farmer, 53, said during a phone interview today. “We’re certainly not at the end of the recession and things are getting worse.”

Bloomberg.com: News

Last edited by Waterlily; 12-27-2008 at 08:55 PM.. Reason: Copyright issues-do not post whole news items.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 12-27-2008, 07:32 PM
 
Location: Wouldn't you like to know?
9,114 posts, read 15,970,081 times
Reputation: 3698
I don't listen to predictions. Tons of people make them and some of them will actually stick to the wall.....

Saying something has a 50% chance to happen is rediculous.....grow a stack and give us a prediction w/100% certainty....
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-27-2008, 07:33 PM
 
28,453 posts, read 73,528,339 times
Reputation: 18485
Well doggy, if I said that an AFC team has a 50% chance of winning the Super Bowl are going to put your money against the NFC???

Pretty funny that Prof. Farmer's specialty is "self fulfilling prophesies" -- UCLA Department of Economics Think maybe he is laying the seeds for his next paper???
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-27-2008, 07:49 PM
 
Location: where you sip the tea of the breasts of the spinsters of Utica
8,299 posts, read 12,552,233 times
Reputation: 8057
I was practically throwing you a bone, Happy Chet. Their predictions are way more pollyannish than what I believe is likely ..... Farmer especially thinks just like you with the "self fulfilling prophecies".

But I do believe in considering opposing viewpoints.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-28-2008, 12:38 AM
 
Location: Olympus Mons, Mars
6,328 posts, read 9,116,230 times
Reputation: 6691
I personally think things are pretty serious. 2009 is going to be a telling year due to the Alt-A mess about to hit us. I don't think this is going to be over for a few years. If a depression is classified as a 10% annual decline in GDP it may very well happen. Remember that housing has been the catalyst for spending over the last 10 years and spending is over 70% of GDP.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-28-2008, 01:33 AM
 
Location: Road Warrior
2,015 posts, read 5,091,773 times
Reputation: 798
Quote:
Originally Posted by k374 View Post
I personally think things are pretty serious. 2009 is going to be a telling year due to the Alt-A mess about to hit us. I don't think this is going to be over for a few years. If a depression is classified as a 10% annual decline in GDP it may very well happen. Remember that housing has been the catalyst for spending over the last 10 years and spending is over 70% of GDP.
Indeed. I believe 2009 will be worse than 2008, firstly lets take in account that food prices will go up slightly and gas production will drop slightly raising prices as well. Injecting paper money into the supply to back up paper money isn't a bright idea either. However it is also key to see what policists do to recover from this, they can take it as a lesson learned and create a more sound political-economic system. I don't believe in depressions but we are going to path of a prolonged recession, not talking about 1-2 years, talking about 10 years the rate we're going. On the other hand I'd hate to see them create a problem just in order to create a solution.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-28-2008, 06:48 AM
 
1,735 posts, read 4,303,420 times
Reputation: 1442
100% if the US doesn’t bring manufacturing back. Bubble economies are over. This country was built and sustained on it’s manufacturing capabilities and to think that it can continue without it is moronic.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-30-2009, 12:15 AM
 
24 posts, read 49,374 times
Reputation: 21
ditto's
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-30-2009, 01:48 AM
 
Location: Texas
5,873 posts, read 7,117,788 times
Reputation: 2967
Anyone who thinks that the U.S. is going to bring back massive "production/manufacturing" is delusional. IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN. There will/can be manufacturing for Green/Energy jobs, and the like, but conventional manufacturing jobs are gone and lost forever.

The FED has un-veiled a unique tool for taking liquidity out of the market on Monday. I think it's crap and don't see it working as they think it will, but it's a unique and alternative approach that I have not seen from them in 6 or so years.

Also, my $.02...Depression? Nah, there would have to be a host of other significant factors that would still need to line up. Severe recession? You better bet on it. And I'll even say contrary to Farmer that it will happen again within 18 months, not the three year long-term anything can happen time frame.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-31-2009, 01:20 PM
 
2,329 posts, read 4,651,311 times
Reputation: 1590
I think there is a better than 50% chance we haven't seen the worst of it. Things are just in a lull before things will get worse. What is out there to make things better...we an incredible amount of debt and they can only prop up the market with printed money for so long.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:


Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2020, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top