U.S. Has 50% Chance of Depression, Economist Roger Farmer Says (Roubini predicts recession only) (debt, money)
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U.S. Has 50% Chance of Depression, Economist Roger Farmer Says
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By Vivien Lou Chen
Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy has a 50 percent chance of falling into a depression during the next three years, said Roger Farmer, a member of the National Bureau of Economic Research’s economic fluctuations and growth program.
“There’s a significant probability things will get worse,” Farmer, 53, said during a phone interview today. “We’re certainly not at the end of the recession and things are getting worse.”
Well doggy, if I said that an AFC team has a 50% chance of winning the Super Bowl are going to put your money against the NFC???
Pretty funny that Prof. Farmer's specialty is "self fulfilling prophesies" -- UCLA Department of Economics Think maybe he is laying the seeds for his next paper???
Location: where you sip the tea of the breasts of the spinsters of Utica
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I was practically throwing you a bone, Happy Chet. Their predictions are way more pollyannish than what I believe is likely ..... Farmer especially thinks just like you with the "self fulfilling prophecies".
But I do believe in considering opposing viewpoints.
I personally think things are pretty serious. 2009 is going to be a telling year due to the Alt-A mess about to hit us. I don't think this is going to be over for a few years. If a depression is classified as a 10% annual decline in GDP it may very well happen. Remember that housing has been the catalyst for spending over the last 10 years and spending is over 70% of GDP.
I personally think things are pretty serious. 2009 is going to be a telling year due to the Alt-A mess about to hit us. I don't think this is going to be over for a few years. If a depression is classified as a 10% annual decline in GDP it may very well happen. Remember that housing has been the catalyst for spending over the last 10 years and spending is over 70% of GDP.
Indeed. I believe 2009 will be worse than 2008, firstly lets take in account that food prices will go up slightly and gas production will drop slightly raising prices as well. Injecting paper money into the supply to back up paper money isn't a bright idea either. However it is also key to see what policists do to recover from this, they can take it as a lesson learned and create a more sound political-economic system. I don't believe in depressions but we are going to path of a prolonged recession, not talking about 1-2 years, talking about 10 years the rate we're going. On the other hand I'd hate to see them create a problem just in order to create a solution.
100% if the US doesn’t bring manufacturing back. Bubble economies are over. This country was built and sustained on it’s manufacturing capabilities and to think that it can continue without it is moronic.
Anyone who thinks that the U.S. is going to bring back massive "production/manufacturing" is delusional. IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN. There will/can be manufacturing for Green/Energy jobs, and the like, but conventional manufacturing jobs are gone and lost forever.
The FED has un-veiled a unique tool for taking liquidity out of the market on Monday. I think it's crap and don't see it working as they think it will, but it's a unique and alternative approach that I have not seen from them in 6 or so years.
Also, my $.02...Depression? Nah, there would have to be a host of other significant factors that would still need to line up. Severe recession? You better bet on it. And I'll even say contrary to Farmer that it will happen again within 18 months, not the three year long-term anything can happen time frame.
I think there is a better than 50% chance we haven't seen the worst of it. Things are just in a lull before things will get worse. What is out there to make things better...we an incredible amount of debt and they can only prop up the market with printed money for so long.
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