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Have not figured out what stage of the game we are in, yet, huh?
There are so many slight-of-hand tricks distracting our attention in so many directions that determining what stage of the game we are in seems more like an educated guess ( at best ) than figuring anything out.
And fishing and fishing and fishing . . . . until they run out fishies.
There is no limit on economic activity there is no reason an economy "runs out of" of transactions between agents in the economy. An economy is simply interactions between agents.
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Originally Posted by Philip T
Have not figured out what stage of the game we are in, yet, huh?
Like I said, I'm just looking at the data. I'm not interested in faith based economics. The leading indicators are pointing to stabilization, I have no reason to believe things are "different now" and economic indicators are no longer reliable. Could we see a double-dip recession? Sure, that occurred both in the 80's and in the 30's. In the latter case it was primarily caused by the government getting wet feet and not only stop stimulating the economy but taking anti-stimulus policies.
I do find it amusing that 1~2 years ago I was arguing with perma-bulls who would always say bring up lagging indicators (e.g., unemployment) to show that things really were not that bad and now I'm arguing with perma-bears who are using the same reasoning on the back-end. Two peas in a pod.
I've linked to the data that shows the LEI's are improving and pointing to an increase in economic activity and recovery (although degree of recovery not certain).
You say the data are maniplulated and really not what they appear to be. Prove it. Show what data are incorrect and where the data used in the LEI have been and are wrong.
Unemployment statistics are a perfect example. They automaticaly add 285K jobs out of thin air to the figures as part of their birth/death models.
WASHINGTON, Aug 7 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner formally requested that Congress raise the $12.1 trillion statutory debt limit on Friday, saying that it could be breached as early as mid-October.
"It is critically important that Congress act before the limit is reached so that citizens and investors here and around the world can remain confident that the United States will always meet its obligations," Geithner said in a letter to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid that was obtained by Reuters. (Reporting by David Lawder; Editing Bernard Orr)
WASHINGTON, Aug 7 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner formally requested that Congress raise the $12.1 trillion statutory debt limit on Friday, saying that it could be breached as early as mid-October.
"It is critically important that Congress act before the limit is reached so that citizens and investors here and around the world can remain confident that the United States will always meet its obligations," Geithner said in a letter to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid that was obtained by Reuters. (Reporting by David Lawder; Editing Bernard Orr)
time to audit the fed! are americans disgusted yet?
There is no limit on economic activity there is no reason an economy "runs out of" of transactions between agents in the economy. An economy is simply interactions between agents.
ahhhhh, you are sort of like just fresh out of school, or so . . . right?
No biggie, just looking for the cause of the disconnect from the real world, and that is a common one.
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Like I said, I'm just looking at the data. I'm not interested in faith based economics. The leading indicators are pointing to stabilization, I have no reason to believe things are "different now" and economic indicators are no longer reliable. Could we see a double-dip recession? Sure, that occurred both in the 80's and in the 30's. In the latter case it was primarily caused by the government getting wet feet and not only stop stimulating the economy but taking anti-stimulus policies.
That "just looking at the data" is sort of like "just looking at the dashboard" while driving. Every now and then you might ought to look up and out the windshield. That may be a cliff ahead we are heading for. Just because it does not show up on your GPS does not mean it is not there.
You can still look at the meters and dials and numbers going round on round on the dashboard for all they mean or do not mean, but even under the best of operating conditions the real world creates the numbers -- the numbers do not create the real world.
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I do find it amusing that 1~2 years ago I was arguing with perma-bulls who would always say bring up lagging indicators (e.g., unemployment) to show that things really were not that bad and now I'm arguing with perma-bears who are using the same reasoning on the back-end. Two peas in a pod.
Sorry not part of that silliness, either way. Sort of reminds me of various sport fanatics ranting about some team statistics with some mental illness often thrown in. They argue a position just to argue. Sort of where I had first guessed you.
For a wider view, you may wish to consider a wider view. Just suggesting.
ahhhhh, you are sort of like just fresh out of school, or so . . . right?
No biggie, just looking for the cause of the disconnect from the real world, and that is a common one.
Yawn. This is all you got? I graduated from school a bit ago.Feel free to explain how an economy can run out of transactions between agents in the economy. That is all an economy is....transactions. I suppose if you glued people to chairs they could no longer trade with each other?
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Originally Posted by Philip T
That "just looking at the data" is sort of like "just looking at the dashboard" while driving. Every now and then you might ought to look up and out the windshield.
Yeah, as I said before you guys think you can "see the economy". But that is just hogwash, what you think you see is just the reflection of your particular world view. There is no window, just a dashboard. Looking at the data is the only objective way of evaluating the economy. Anything else is faith-based economics.
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Originally Posted by Philip T
but even under the best of operating conditions the real world creates the numbers -- the numbers do not create the real world.
Yes and of course unless you have god like powers you can't "see the economy". There is no way to "see" the economy as a whole. You can make some comments about your little personal world, but to mistake that for the economy as a whole is foolish at best.
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Originally Posted by Philip T
For a wider view, you may wish to consider a wider view. Just suggesting.
Free feel to say how someone can get a "wider view", you see I don't follow your particular religion so I'm not too sure about that.
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