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Old 10-08-2010, 10:35 AM
 
Location: Jonquil City (aka Smyrna) Georgia- by Atlanta
16,259 posts, read 24,788,601 times
Reputation: 3587

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According to this David Scott has a 100% chance of winning re election over the Republicans in a mixed district that was once Republican in a year when the Democrats are expected to take a bloodbath and lose between 50 and 100 seats in the Congress.

FiveThirtyEight House Election Forecasts and Polls - Election 2010 - The New York Times
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Old 10-08-2010, 10:49 AM
 
5,391 posts, read 7,237,595 times
Reputation: 2857
I'd say my Democratic Representative has a 95% or more chance of being re-elected. His seat is the only Virginia one in play that I can vote on (no Senate seats this year), and although I'm excited to cast my vote for him, it's not as if I'm playing a decisive role. He's a shoe-in.
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Old 10-08-2010, 01:19 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,209 posts, read 19,497,725 times
Reputation: 5309
Quote:
Originally Posted by robbobobbo View Post
I'd say my Democratic Representative has a 95% or more chance of being re-elected. His seat is the only Virginia one in play that I can vote on (no Senate seats this year), and although I'm excited to cast my vote for him, it's not as if I'm playing a decisive role. He's a shoe-in.
Moran?? he has a 100% chance.
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Old 10-08-2010, 02:23 PM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
77,771 posts, read 104,875,157 times
Reputation: 49248
Quote:
Originally Posted by KevK View Post
According to this David Scott has a 100% chance of winning re election over the Republicans in a mixed district that was once Republican in a year when the Democrats are expected to take a bloodbath and lose between 50 and 100 seats in the Congress.

FiveThirtyEight House Election Forecasts and Polls - Election 2010 - The New York Times
Big deal and here our senate race will go to a Republican for the first time in Gods knows how long, as well as at least 2 congressional seats which, a year ago seemed shoe ins for the Democrats. Well, not one seat, it was always going to go Republican.

Nita
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Old 10-08-2010, 02:25 PM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
20,054 posts, read 18,304,251 times
Reputation: 3826
A lot of people in our district would like to think it's safe dem. It recently changed to likely dem and may change again after the challenger knocks it out of the park with tonight's debate. The incumbent's mods on his facebook page religiously delete any postings that are not 110% enthusiastically endorsing the candidate, even if the tone is extremely polite.
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Old 10-08-2010, 02:29 PM
 
5,391 posts, read 7,237,595 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
Moran?? he has a 100% chance.
Well, ok, I'll agree with you. Just didn't want to be too cocky. I've been seeing some "Retire Moran" signs around.
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Old 10-08-2010, 02:43 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,209 posts, read 19,497,725 times
Reputation: 5309
Quote:
Originally Posted by summers73 View Post
A lot of people in our district would like to think it's safe dem. It recently changed to likely dem and may change again after the challenger knocks it out of the park with tonight's debate. The incumbent's mods on his facebook page religiously delete any postings that are not 110% enthusiastically endorsing the candidate, even if the tone is extremely polite.
Only one to have NC-4 as likely Dem is RCP, everyone else has it listed as Safe/Solid Dem

Rothenberg political report--- Safe Democrat

Larry Sabato Crystal Ball---- Safe Democrat

Congressional Quarterly---- Safe Democrat

Cook Political report--- Solid Democrat (they use Solid instead of Safe)

The Hill-- Safe Democrat
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Old 10-08-2010, 02:44 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,209 posts, read 19,497,725 times
Reputation: 5309
Quote:
Originally Posted by robbobobbo View Post
Well, ok, I'll agree with you. Just didn't want to be too cocky. I've been seeing some "Retire Moran" signs around.
Obama won the district 69-30, even with poor turnout its super safe Dem.
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Old 10-08-2010, 02:49 PM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
20,054 posts, read 18,304,251 times
Reputation: 3826
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
Only one to have NC-4 as likely Dem is RCP, everyone else has it listed as Safe/Solid Dem

Rothenberg political report--- Safe Democrat

Larry Sabato Crystal Ball---- Safe Democrat

Congressional Quarterly---- Safe Democrat

Cook Political report--- Solid Democrat (they use Solid instead of Safe)

The Hill-- Safe Democrat
Cool. Thanks for the info!
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Old 10-08-2010, 03:07 PM
 
Location: The Republic of Texas
78,863 posts, read 46,701,078 times
Reputation: 18521
Quote:
Originally Posted by KevK View Post
According to this David Scott has a 100% chance of winning re election over the Republicans in a mixed district that was once Republican in a year when the Democrats are expected to take a bloodbath and lose between 50 and 100 seats in the Congress.

FiveThirtyEight House Election Forecasts and Polls - Election 2010 - The New York Times





"Owning a business is a privilege"

GA Dem Rep. David Scott loses his temper at a town hall meeting over healthcare - Atlanta Political Buzz | Examiner.com


Ya, that guy is a winner!
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