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Oh, look at the spin from the Romney haters! Romney is the clear favorite for the nomination. He will get the delegates, he already has a projected majority from the states that have voted. But let's not turn this is into another thread about how Ron Paul will game the system to get the nomination. Let's concede those people have a valid point. Romney has huge momentum. This will be great going into Washington and Super Tuesday. Gingrich is also up in polls. With this momentum, Romney is in a position to take Ohio. With Gingrich's Southern strength, combined with the fact that Santorum isdown considerably and Gingrich is up a little bit from where he was, those states will become 3-way races and Romney may even pull out plurality wins. I am not predicting he will, but remember there was a point in which Romney was up in polls in Oklahoma and South Carolina, among others. Don't rule these things out. With momentum from huge Super Tuesday wins (Idaho, Mass, Vermont, and Virginia are automatic wins for Romney, Ohio is trending his way, and he will hold his own in the South) he will go on to score larger and larger victories. It will be a tough battle, but momentum will be on his side to help him through hostile terrain in Kansas, Alabama, and Mississippi. The island primaries are also in March though (Hawaii, Guam, US Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico) which will be good for Mitt. Finally he will end the month with Illinois and Louisiana. I think he will pull off Illinois, the state that chose Mark Kirk over a conservative tea party candidate in the primaries, and his strength with Catholics will help him potentially pull off a Southern victory in Louisiana
This is good for Romney, but his momentum will be slowed. Not halted, he will do better than expected a week ago throughout March, but not outstanding. Not enough to put him on a solid track for a delegate-majority. Enter the winner-take-all states. It's pretty smooth sailing for Romney among just about all of these huge delegate prizes, which bind every single one of their delegates to the popular vote winner. Here is a schedule to see which states these are: 2012 Primary Schedule « 2012 Election Central
Out of those states, I see 528 delegates worth of likely (not certain, but likely) Romney victories - Utah, New Mexico, California (more delegates than any other state), Oregon, Rhode Island, new York, Delaware, Connecticut, Maryland, and DC.
He could also win in Nebraska, Indiana, Pennsylvania (I would say this is likely Santorum unless he tanks before then. And if that happens, I would move it to likely Romney.), Montana, and Wisconsin for another 221.
If he gets only 30% of the Texas vote (which is proportional), he would get roughly 40 delegates. I don't know how that works with congressional districts, so we'll say 40.
This doesn't include any delegates earned in March. I'd say he is well on his path to securing the nomination. Much moreso than Barack Obama was at this time in 2008. That didn't exactly hurt him during the general election or divide the party or anything.
Oh, look at the spin from the Romney haters! Romney is the clear favorite for the nomination. He will get the delegates, he already has a projected majority from the states that have voted. But let's not turn this is into another thread about how Ron Paul will game the system to get the nomination. Let's concede those people have a valid point. Romney has huge momentum. This will be great going into Washington and Super Tuesday. Gingrich is also up in polls. With this momentum, Romney is in a position to take Ohio. With Gingrich's Southern strength, combined with the fact that Santorum isdown considerably and Gingrich is up a little bit from where he was, those states will become 3-way races and Romney may even pull out plurality wins. I am not predicting he will, but remember there was a point in which Romney was up in polls in Oklahoma and South Carolina, among others. Don't rule these things out. With momentum from huge Super Tuesday wins (Idaho, Mass, Vermont, and Virginia are automatic wins for Romney, Ohio is trending his way, and he will hold his own in the South) he will go on to score larger and larger victories. It will be a tough battle, but momentum will be on his side to help him through hostile terrain in Kansas, Alabama, and Mississippi. The island primaries are also in March though (Hawaii, Guam, US Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico) which will be good for Mitt. Finally he will end the month with Illinois and Louisiana. I think he will pull off Illinois, the state that chose Mark Kirk over a conservative tea party candidate in the primaries, and his strength with Catholics will help him potentially pull off a Southern victory in Louisiana
This is good for Romney, but his momentum will be slowed. Not halted, he will do better than expected a week ago throughout March, but not outstanding. Not enough to put him on a solid track for a delegate-majority. Enter the winner-take-all states. It's pretty smooth sailing for Romney among just about all of these huge delegate prizes, which bind every single one of their delegates to the popular vote winner. Here is a schedule to see which states these are: 2012 Primary Schedule « 2012 Election Central
Out of those states, I see 528 delegates worth of likely (not certain, but likely) Romney victories - Utah, New Mexico, California (more delegates than any other state), Oregon, Rhode Island, new York, Delaware, Connecticut, Maryland, and DC.
He could also win in Nebraska, Indiana, Pennsylvania (I would say this is likely Santorum unless he tanks before then. And if that happens, I would move it to likely Romney.), Montana, and Wisconsin for another 221.
If he gets only 30% of the Texas vote (which is proportional), he would get roughly 40 delegates. I don't know how that works with congressional districts, so we'll say 40.
This doesn't include any delegates earned in March. I'd say he is well on his path to securing the nomination. Much moreso than Barack Obama was at this time in 2008. That didn't exactly hurt him during the general election or divide the party or anything.
sorry, but you have no idea what you are talking about. im not talking about your first 2 paragraphs, im talking about the inaccurate math you are using with those future primaries you believe romney will win.
most of those primaries are proportional, including the big dogs california and new york.
the way you sound, it looks like you think romney will win all 528 of those delegates, since you think he'll win those states. that's not how it works. most of these states deal out delegates on a district level.
sorry, but you have no idea what you are talking about. im not talking about your first 2 paragraphs, im talking about the inaccurate math you are using with those future primaries you believe romney will win.
most of those primaries are proportional, including the big dogs california and new york.
the way you sound, it looks like you think romney will win all 528 of those delegates, since you think he'll win those states. that's not how it works. most of these states deal out delegates on a district level.
So maybe it was a little optimistic on my part to assume Romney will get all the delegates from proportional states along with winner-take-all states. I wouldn't say that means I have no idea what I'm talking about, but you're entitled to your opinion. But my thinking was that he will have a strong enough lead by then that his support will be spread more evenly across congressional districts and they will be, effectively, winner-take-all. Maybe a little optimistic, but I think either Santorum or Gingrich will be out, and the remaining of the two will have tanked and will be seen as unelectable. Paul is not much of a threat in a head-to-head match-up against any Republican.
Would Romney get a majority of the delegates if all elections were held today? Possibly.
Will he when he continues to show he is the only candidate who is consistently seen as electable, and momentum is on his side? Yes.
the only way he gets to 1144 is if others drop out. he wont get the delegates outright.
A deal will be struck well before the convention. The GOP knows that a brokered convention would be a disaster. Santorum, Gingrich and Romney are all very aware of that fact.
Wait till all of the the three big states vote: Texas (155), New York (95) and California (172). The biggest prize of them all is California -- 172 winner take all delegates. We may not know who the winner will be until the states vote on June 5th (California being one of those). Utah is pretty much an automatic for Romney at this point and they are the only state voting after June 5th. Utah is a winner take all. So take the totals after the June 5th vote, add 40 to Romney's total and then see what the numbers look like.
After you do that, whoever has the most delegates will be the nominee. The others candidates will start making deals, trading delegates for cabinet positions and such. And even if they refuse, there are enough Super Delegates and unpledged delegates to guarantee that the post-June 5th leader is the GOP nominee with 1144 delegates (which is exactly why the non-leaders will start making deals, they know they can either make a deal or get nothing at all.)
Clinton/Obama could have become a brokered convention. Many signs were pointing to a likely brokered Democratic convention in 2008. The Dems knew better than to let that happen. The GOP will essentially do the same thing the Dems did because they too know better than to let it happen.
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I wouldn't say that means I have no idea what I'm talking about, but you're entitled to your opinion. But my thinking was that he will have a strong enough lead by then that his support will be spread more evenly across congressional districts and they will be, effectively, winner-take-all. Maybe a little optimistic, but I think either Santorum or Gingrich will be out, and the remaining of the two will have tanked and will be seen as unelectable. Paul is not much of a threat in a head-to-head match-up against any Republican.
