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Old 10-12-2012, 04:31 PM
 
Location: South Carolina
8,145 posts, read 6,530,237 times
Reputation: 1754

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The Biden bounce begins
RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Michigan: Romney vs. Obama

 
Old 10-12-2012, 04:33 PM
 
3,620 posts, read 3,835,279 times
Reputation: 1512
Quote:
Originally Posted by tigerlily View Post
Is Vegas holding higher odds or is just one odd maker? A google search turned up several links for Wayne Allyn Root and not Vegas oddsmakers. Wayne Allyn Root is a capitalist evangelist and serial entrepreneur. He is a former Libertarian vice presidential nominee. He now serves as chairman of the Libertarian National Campaign Committee

Romney wins in a landslide -- Las Vegas oddsmaker doubles down on prediction | Fox News
my bookie has obama as a -250 fave.

pinny has him as a fave and i trust them more then anything in vegas
 
Old 10-12-2012, 05:16 PM
 
Location: Portland, Oregon
5,299 posts, read 8,254,661 times
Reputation: 3809
An excellent article on why President Obama is still favored to win the election. As an example, a state like Ohio has remained friendly to the President. The closer it gets to Election Day, Ohio is more likely to actually for Obama because Romney is running out of time to shift that opinion. Very few states cross each other so the rankings are consistent. An exception would be North Carolina. NC leaned towards Romney in the beginning, drifted slightly to Obama and now back in Romney's grasp.

Why the President Is Still a Heavy Favorite on the Prediction Markets | PBS NewsHour

Last edited by tigerlily; 10-12-2012 at 06:30 PM..
 
Old 10-12-2012, 08:28 PM
 
Location: NC
9,984 posts, read 10,390,751 times
Reputation: 3086
Quote:
Originally Posted by tigerlily View Post
An excellent article on why President Obama is still favored to win the election. As an example, a state like Ohio has remained friendly to the President. The closer it gets to Election Day, Ohio is more likely to actually for Obama because Romney is running out of time to shift that opinion. Very few states cross each other so the rankings are consistent. An exception would be North Carolina. NC leaned towards Romney in the beginning, drifted slightly to Obama and now back in Romney's grasp.

Why the President Is Still a Heavy Favorite on the Prediction Markets | PBS NewsHour
I don't even know if I would say that about North Carolina. All this speculation about North Carolina is based on one poll by a company called Gravis Marketing which is a relatively new pollster (it is also a questionable poll since it has Obama winning 40%> of people 18-24 which is highly unlikely. North Carolina is and always has been close as evidenced by the most recent Rasmussen poll in which Obama gained a point versus their pre-debate poll. Additionally another poll that was conducted mostly post debate by High Point University has Obama up by a point.

North Carolina is going to be all about about turnout and thus far turnout is higher then last time.

Last edited by Randomstudent; 10-12-2012 at 08:41 PM..
 
Old 10-13-2012, 01:12 AM
 
Location: Near Manito
20,169 posts, read 24,326,022 times
Reputation: 15291
Yesterday, I posted that Romney could not win without Ohio. I just came across Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight analysis from the NYT, showing that it would be possible for Romney to squeak by without the Buckeye State.

Here's how....



Lots of close calls here (e.g., Iowa, Nevada, Virginia) . But it IS possible for Romney, whose numbers continue to grow even as the first two debates recede...

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com
 
Old 10-13-2012, 02:32 AM
 
Location: On the "Left Coast", somewhere in "the Land of Fruits & Nuts"
8,852 posts, read 10,454,406 times
Reputation: 6670
Romney could win without Ohio, an electoral tie could happen, and Seattle could someday win the World Series.

Meanwhile, back in this little thang we like to call "reality", here's what's more likely to happen...

Nate Silver Projects Obama Still Has 70 Percent Chance Of Winning Election
 
Old 10-13-2012, 06:47 AM
 
6,500 posts, read 6,035,382 times
Reputation: 3603
I still think Romney will win, but Liberals should be so thankful that they get 30% of electoral votes needed from just two states. If they didnt have NY and Cali locked up as liberal states every year, they would be in huge trouble every election. A Republican has to work harder to win an nationwide election when over electoral votes are locked in for liberals off just two states. The majority of the country is not liberal, yet two states alone give them the advantage.
 
Old 10-13-2012, 07:23 AM
 
Location: Norman, OK
3,478 posts, read 7,254,112 times
Reputation: 1201
Quote:
Originally Posted by mateo45 View Post
Romney could win without Ohio, an electoral tie could happen, and Seattle could someday win the World Series.

Meanwhile, back in this little thang we like to call "reality", here's what's more likely to happen...

Nate Silver Projects Obama Still Has 70 Percent Chance Of Winning Election
Actually the latest forecast for Election Day (as of 10/13) has Obama at 61% and 283 electoral votes. He has lost 24 points in his victory certainty and 35 electoral votes in one week.

The 'NowCast' has 276 to 261 EVs for Obama.
 
Old 10-13-2012, 07:28 AM
 
30,063 posts, read 18,660,332 times
Reputation: 20877
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yeledaf View Post
Yesterday, I posted that Romney could not win without Ohio. I just came across Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight analysis from the NYT, showing that it would be possible for Romney to squeak by without the Buckeye State.

Here's how....



Lots of close calls here (e.g., Iowa, Nevada, Virginia) . But it IS possible for Romney, whose numbers continue to grow even as the first two debates recede...

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

That is how the map will turn out. However, Romney will win Ohio, Wisconsin and potentially PA as well.

In our state, which has Obama up by 3% in Gallup, large scale polls have Romney leading Obama by 10-12% points.

I have Obama's "high water mark" at 237. He could go as low as 158, but most likely it will be 217.
 
Old 10-13-2012, 07:54 AM
 
2,986 posts, read 4,576,477 times
Reputation: 1664
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tilt11 View Post
I still think Romney will win, but Liberals should be so thankful that they get 30% of electoral votes needed from just two states. If they didnt have NY and Cali locked up as liberal states every year, they would be in huge trouble every election. A Republican has to work harder to win an nationwide election when over electoral votes are locked in for liberals off just two states. The majority of the country is not liberal, yet two states alone give them the advantage.
more boo hoo crying from the pugs. you guys get Texas every year
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