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Obama in Ohio appears to have snapped back over the last few days, with two polls (NBC/WSJ and PPP) placing him right back where he was two weeks ago, up by 5 points or thereabouts.
But there's still plenty of room for Romney to maneuver in the state; inspired by the example of that great naval hero John Paul Jones, Romney's motto in Ohio is "I have not yet begun to lie".
Oh, hahahaha. What a masterful wit. How clever! That's hilarious. How do you think up such things?
Obama's biggest problem is not anything his opponent says, but by the abject failure of his policies, his prescriptions, his philosophy, and his presidency.
No. He is a doctor. He was Surgeon General in the Bush administration, former decorated combat medic and doc, and SWAT team leader. He is an INDie turned Dem who is not a career politician, pretty moderate. Jan Brewer tried to get him to run as a Republican for some office, but apparently he wanted Senate. Probably would fall in the blue dog dem category that goes along with some of the party stuff but not all of it if elected.
Flake is a career politician. He is not that bad, but his social agenda is more suited to the bible belt than AZ.
I actually like Carmona. My problem with Carmona is going to be my problem with McCain in 2008. They are both going to have to tow the party line. Carmona and McCain are both fairly moderate politicians but in order to energize their bases they both have to move to the fringes and I don't like that.
[quote=marcopolo;26500302Obama's biggest problem is not anything his opponent says, but by the abject failure of his policies, his prescriptions, his philosophy, and his presidency.[/quote]
True, but Romney's big problem is vital states like Va and Ohio are faring decently (economically) now, quite unusual for swing states to outperform the nation.
I expect Ohio to go Obama, and NOVA's population gowth, while perhaps not moving Va in '12, will create a Blue Va on an enduring basis.
Romney will pretty much need a clean sweep on all remaining swing states to eek out 270.
My hunch, looking at rcp which uses last 10 day averages, is the Obama drop from 265 to 201, will somewhat reverse (last 7 days Ohio for instance would have them call it for Obama, 10/4-6 polls will fall off 10/14-16). So it will not shock me to see Obama above 225-240 within 5 days. It will be interesting to see if Romney can bump up 191 by the same trend.
Either way, the GOP neeeds to recognize the failure of the Southern Strategy. A 211.4 avg over 20 years is putrid. It is a signal what the South wants and the rest of the US want are out of sync, and unless one sees 270 Southern electoral votes in the 21st century, its an arithmetic problem.
BS. Obama hasnt been above 44 all year in Arizona and Romney hasn't been below 48.
They actually mentioned a reason for that. Most other polls are only conducted in English. This poll was conducted in English and Spanish. That would likely explain a good amount of the shift.
Rocky Mountain Poll is very well known and respected local (Phoenix) polling firm. I would not dismiss it so casually. Earl DeBerge (the owner) is a frequent commentator on TV here on political trends.
I have a hard time, though, believing that Obama will prevail here. There is a built-in Mormon bias of 2-3 percent (they are holding prayer sessions and meetings for Romney). Carmona may win, though. In fact, I am beginning to believe he will. Latino turnout could conceivably tilt both races to the Dems, but Latinos have a dismal record for turning out here.
Obama certainly has a dismal record there as well.
Cartel wars on our soil?
Not a point in his favor at all.
I don't now anything about this polling group you referenced for arizona but nationally, Romney leads in 5 of the 7 polls and thother 2 are tied. Obama doesn't lead in any of the polls nationally.
And with Romney likely to win 30 states overall to 20 for Obama, Romney will get 20 additional electoral votes by winning the 2 senate related electoral votes for the 10 state margin. So Obama would lose rather sustantially if the election was held today.
Romney will pretty much need a clean sweep on all remaining swing states to eek out 270.
Yes, I agree - and this is the rock on which the fortunes of the Romney campaign look likely to founder. The first debate changed the polling numbers enough to give the wild-eyed true believers some hope, but not enough to change the underlying dynamic of this race: the RCP No-Tossup map still suggests an Obama victory by the comfortable margin of 24 electors. By RCP's measurement, Romney takes 244 electors if the election happens this morning - to boost that number to a majority, if Ohio is ruled out, still requires the Romulans to convert at least four marginal states presently favoring Obama (VA, NV, NH, IA), which is a scenario so tenuous as to be laughable.
Romney's best, and really his only, chance to win this election rests in swinging Ohio and Virginia, and to achieve that feat he now has one last chance: this week's debate. In effect, Republican hopes to regain the White House now turn on a repetition of the first debate.
Quote:
It is a signal what the South wants and the rest of the US want are out of sync, and unless one sees 270 Southern electoral votes in the 21st century, its an arithmetic problem.
Again, I agree. Looked at broadly, perhaps this has been true for almost the entire history of the Republic, and an historian in a speculative mood might conclude that it suggests secession or separation might have been a better course for both sections. But whether for good or ill, Appomattox happened, and any party which aligns itself ever more exclusively with the Confederacy in the Electoral College is probably doomed.
This is what the Obama campaign now has to stretch for to get good polling news these days.
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All RCP now favor Romeny Natioanlly
