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Why use Real Clear Politics AVERAGE of all the polls when most of them have sampling which is skewed?
Duh, how stupid of me, I forgot, the only one true poll we should be reading is Rasmussen. Thanks for reminding me jt800, how could they ever go wrong. I bet Rasmussen has predicted every election 100% correctly.
Huh? You can see the tracking archive at the Rasmussen link...it's that easy to prove that statement wrong.
That map is the best, it clearly shows that Romney has a conservative stronghold in Oregon that is going to deliver that conservative state come election day.
Location: On the "Left Coast", somewhere in "the Land of Fruits & Nuts"
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Yes, it's still very close in VA, though apparently Obama is leading by a point or so, depending which poll. But judging by ad spending, neither side seems to be taking it for granted.
My thread actually contains more information if you were to compare the two.
Yes, you could of added that information to the original thread because they are still the same thread....but who's to split hairs, I only read your threads anyways because you are the one poster that is never wrong and it is where I get all my information from.
Ummmmm......if you use the same poll all the time, which uses the same methodology every time, then you know that when one guy overtakes the other, it's accurate.
In other words, if you are using the same tool of measurement consistently you can rely on the changes.
Each poll has its strengths and weaknesses. You are confusing accuracy with precision. Accuracy refers to how a statistical sampling methodology closely approximates the population's response, while precision refers to reducing the variations between samples.
In human terms:
Suppose you go to your gun range. Accuracy is how many shots you get in the circle. Precision is how closely grouped your shot are. In our example, Rasmussen is a shooter who's known for tight grouping, but tends to shoot high. By putting more shooters on target, we will get a better tendency to get shots on target.
Each poll has its strengths and weaknesses. You are confusing accuracy with precision. Accuracy refers to how a statistical sampling methodology closely approximates the population's response, while precision refers to reducing the variations between samples.
In human terms:
Suppose you go to your gun range. Accuracy is how many shots you get in the circle. Precision is how closely grouped your shot are. In our example, Rasmussen is a shooter who's known for tight grouping, but tends to shoot high. By putting more shooters on target, we will get a better tendency to get shots on target.
Rasmussen and Pew were just heralded as being the most accurate.
And, I re-assert that if you use the same measuring stick each time, you can rely on the changes.
Rasmussen showed Obama ahead right after the convention, but he's now behind.....using the SAME methodology.
Hahahaaha...that map is too funny. Maybe this is real in Mitt Romney's dreams, but that's about it.
Obvioulsy it's in the dreams of the clown who posts it 10 times a day.
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