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Bear in mind that Chuck Todd is using the WaPo/ABC poll from this morning for part of his analysis, and you can see just how bad things are going for Team Obama. While I agree with Todd on the momentum shift, I’m not as sure it’s recent, but I do think the debate was indeed the big inflection point for the toplines of the polls. Even before that debate, Mitt Romney routinely led among independents in polling outside the margin of error — and in a cycle where Republican enthusiasm outstrips that of the Democrats, that’s a powerful indicator how the race is going:
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