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"Update/Correction, November 3, 8:18 am ET:
Jeryl Bier forwarded us the following email from Jim Lee of Susquehanna:
This poll is three weeks old, Jeryl. Not sure why this poll is still being circulated as “new”. Tomorrow the Pittsburgh tribune review will release a new poll they commmissioned us to do “post hurricane sandy”. It shows a tighter race. Jim"
Romney is NOT going to win PA. Give it up, Trace. We've been a blue state since 1992 and that looks like it won't change anytime soon. If you want to win PA so bad, then the GOP needs to nominate a 2 term PA Republican governor. Other than that, it's a lost cause
Romney will win Florida. He's at 50 in 6 of the last 10 polls published, and is outside the MOE in 2 of those 10, while Obama is only leading in 3 of the 10, none being outside the MOE.
Similar situation in Ohio, Obama will win it. 50 in 6 of the last 10 polls, and is outside the MOE in 4 of those 10, while Romney is tied in one poll, and leading one other, none being outside the MOE.
This is why you see Romney running to PA, he already knows he will lose Ohio and needs to knock off one of those states (Mich/PA) to have any chance. Similarly, Obama has just 1 campaign appearance in Florida, compared to multiple visits in Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, etc. Except Obama doesn't need Florida.
I'm not so sure Romney is going to win Florida as you are. I don't generally knock polls with the exception of taking a hard line on the automated, landline only ones. But the Mason Dixon has some numbers that just don't gibe with other polling in Florida. It seems way too negative on Obama. Also, there is no gender gap. I am not buying that.
Another consideration is that the sample size is quite small. The Marist, on the other hand, is a good methodology poll and has very large sample size. The prez lead is almost outside the MOE on that one because of that. Even though Obama is not going there much, Clinton and the rest of the gang have been working it. I think, at this point, it is maybe 1-2 points Romney and they can overturn that with a large showing at the polls. FL could be a nice Obama surprise win on Tuesday. Don't count it out just yet.
Don't worry Lefties, Tuesdays poll with smack you right dab in the head with only one conclusion to be drawn from it.
There will be no need to analyze, what it means will be clear.
Romney will win Florida. He's at 50 in 6 of the last 10 polls published, and is outside the MOE in 2 of those 10, while Obama is only leading in 3 of the 10, none being outside the MOE.
Similar situation in Ohio, Obama will win it. 50 in 6 of the last 10 polls, and is outside the MOE in 4 of those 10, while Romney is tied in one poll, and leading one other, none being outside the MOE.
This is why you see Romney running to PA, he already knows he will lose Ohio and needs to knock off one of those states (Mich/PA) to have any chance. Similarly, Obama has just 1 campaign appearance in Florida, compared to multiple visits in Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, etc. Except Obama doesn't need Florida.
Polling people who would vote does not mean they will be allowed to vote. Fla Gov is working very hard to keep as many as possible from exercising their right. Ohio Gov too, I fear.
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