Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Just finished Silver's book (very good), and he himself says that individual predictors rarely beat the market.
Intrade is holding at about 66% Obama, 34% Romney.
I think Silver's model is designed to uptick as it gradually decouples from economic fundamentals and leans more and more toward polls. It must also recognize inertia. Namely, all things being equal, it is hard for things to majorly change with only a couple days than a couple months, as we have all seen. Not much can turn the ship now ( I was going to say cannot turn the Titanic, but that is not exactly flattering to Obama ....).
Last edited by Fiddlehead; 11-04-2012 at 09:19 AM..
No, it does not mean it is a tie. It means that the pollster predicts with 95% confidence that the outcome will lie between -0.2 and +4.2 Obama. So there is a chance in this poll that Romney could win but it is at the margin of the margin if you will and has about the same chance of happening as Obama winning with 4%. Both of those are small. The estimate of error in survey such as this is normally distributed just as the survey results themselves are. In other words, it is much more likely that the 2% win for Obama will occur than it is for a 0.2 win for Romney or a 4.2% Obama triumph.
Yes, it is a TIE, within MoE.
Let's see what the POLLSTER says;
Dispatch Poll: Ohio's a toss-up
Quote:
The final Dispatch Poll shows Obama leading 50 percent to 48 percent in the Buckeye State. However, that 2-point edge is within the survey’s margin of sampling error, plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.
new poll out of Michigan showing Romney leading now as well. pundits and people on here, have been telling u lib-tards for months that it will be about turn-out, and the undecideds breaking for Romney. They always break for the Challenger
A "toss up" is not a tie. Toss up is not a mathematical term. A tie would imply that each candidate has the same chance of winning and that is not the case. Anyway, I give up. I won't try to explain statistical inference anymore. You are free to wallow and take comfort in ignorance.
(Suffolk polled the race three times, under-polling Obama each time -- but in the ballpark once, at least)
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
A "toss up" is not a tie. Toss up is not a mathematical term. A tie would imply that each candidate has the same chance of winning and that is not the case. Anyway, I give up. I won't try to explain statistical inference anymore. You are free to wallow and take comfort in ignorance.