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I live in this state and I still call PA going to Obama. I live in Romneyland, but the Philly suburbs are what's going to decide who gets PA's electoral votes, and I'm predicting Obama will get the Philly suburbanites.
Within Philly, absolutely. New Hope, Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, along the 76 corridor, KoP...chock full of very fickle moderates. Obama would need a 10 point lead to lock in PA.
Within Philly, absolutely. New Hope, Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, along the 76 corridor, KoP...chock full of very fickle moderates. Obama would need a 10 point lead to lock in PA.
You're not even from Pennsylvania. What are you talking about? Dems use the same strategy they use every election season...run up the vote tallies in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and the Lehigh Valley. There aren't enough gun-toting, conservative hillbillies to offset those numbers.
You're not even from Pennsylvania. What are you talking about? Dems use the same strategy they use every election season...run up the vote tallies in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and the Lehigh Valley. There aren't enough gun-toting, conservative hillbillies to offset those numbers.
Grew up and worked in Philly and KoP, spent 30 years in that cr@phole area. The only saving grace was Elk Mountain.
Like I said, the Philly 'burbs are full of 500K+ McMansions and full of white upper middle class suburbanites who are relatively independent. Chadds Ford, KoP, New Hope, Bryn Mawr, I know all those regions and partied in Manyunk all the time in my 20s. They don't need to be anywhere near what your Philistine stereotype of Rmoney supporters suggest.
I had a right wing TV and radio viewer tell me that "THEY" are saying NJ is also in play. I think they do this to make to make them feel better.
Pennsylvania is probably out of reach. New Jersey is fairly out of reach.
Of the states considered tossup, I stand by my earlier assessment: Virginia, Florida, Nevada and Colorado will be taken by Romney. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan get taken by Obama.
That leaves Iowa, New Hampshire and Ohio to play for.
If I'm right, that leaves Obama with 247 electoral votes, Romney with 263 and 28 votes left to go.
That would mean if Obama takes Ohio, Romney would need both Iowa(Which currently leans Obama's way) and New Hampshire.
On the other hand, if Romney lost New Hampshire and Ohio and took Iowa, that would leave a shocking 269 electoral votes each. If that happens, I will be watching the news very carefully. There would definitely be unrest caused at that point when the winner is declared. Especially if that winner didn't take the popular vote.
Pennsylvania is probably out of reach. New Jersey is fairly out of reach.
Of the states considered tossup, I stand by my earlier assessment: Virginia, Florida, Nevada and Colorado will be taken by Romney. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan get taken by Obama.
That leaves Iowa, New Hampshire and Ohio to play for.
If I'm right, that leaves Obama with 247 electoral votes, Romney with 263 and 28 votes left to go.
That would mean if Obama takes Ohio, Romney would need both Iowa(Which currently leans Obama's way) and New Hampshire.
On the other hand, if Romney lost New Hampshire and Ohio and took Iowa, that would leave a shocking 269 electoral votes each. If that happens, I will be watching the news very carefully. There would definitely be unrest caused at that point when the winner is declared. Especially if that winner didn't take the popular vote.
You could make it easy on yourself and look at all available data and trends so far, which is what Nate Silver has done:
Iowa is 73.5% in the bag for Obama. Obama has way more organizers there than Romney and has a huge surge in early voting. Not gonna happen for Romney. Sorry.
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