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I have a good read on wisconsin as i live in minnesota and visit wisconsin frequently.
Wisconsin should go blue. Iowa looks like its about to go solid Obama. Nevada looks good now.
I know Colorado is in play, but I have a hard time believing they will go Red. It is such a good state with so many level headed people. Colorado Springs is a problem, but outside of El Paso it is a pretty good state. The only problem is that Colorado Springs has a whole lot of people.
While, of course, Ohio is important, there are several ways for Romney to win without Ohio. Several states that were not really supposed to, are trending toward Romney so anything can happen. Most things that are said to 'have to happen' during this election have been sort of disproven. It was said that no Republican nominee had ever been nominated in 30 years or whatever, without winning South Carolina...well, it happened this time around. I was told repeatedly, at least twice a day on this forum alone, that a 'Mormon' would never be the nominee and that the 'south' would never vote for a 'Mormon'. Well, they seem very eager to vote for Mitt Romney everyplace I have been. Never say never folks!
I know Colorado is in play, but I have a hard time believing they will go Red. It is such a good state with so many level headed people. Colorado Springs is a problem, but outside of El Paso it is a pretty good state. The only problem is that Colorado Springs has a whole lot of people.
Obamas intrade and 538 numbers in Mich and PA are 80+. Look at the RCP polling history of both states. The last time Romney actually was leading in a poll in Michigan was August. In PA even further back.
While, of course, Ohio is important, there are several ways for Romney to win without Ohio. Several states that were not really supposed to, are trending toward Romney so anything can happen. Most things that are said to 'have to happen' during this election have been sort of disproven. It was said that no Republican nominee had ever been nominated in 30 years or whatever, without winning South Carolina...well, it happened this time around. I was told repeatedly, at least twice a day on this forum alone, that a 'Mormon' would never be the nominee and that the 'south' would never vote for a 'Mormon'. Well, they seem very eager to vote for Mitt Romney everyplace I have been. Never say never folks!
give me a realistic, non koolaid romney fan verion of Romney getting to 270 without Michigan/PA/ and Ohio.
Actually no. Although the population of Colorado Springs is high. The largest population of the state is in the Denver metro area which includes boulder, which vote heavily democrat. The biggest push is going to from hispanic voters in Colorado...and there are a lot. Even in Colorado Springs there are a lot of hispanic voters.
You are big on opinion short on facts. The fact is that a 100,000 people voted during that time period in 08. These three days included a weekend, which is important because so many democrats actually work and need the weekend to vote.
Obamas intrade and 538 numbers in Mich and PA are 80+. Look at the RCP polling history of both states. The last time Romney actually was leading in a poll in Michigan was August. In PA even further back.
michigan and pa will both go blue.
Susquehanna has traditionally shown a much tighter race between Obama and Romney than other polls, in part because it weights its results by party registration. Firms that don't do this tend to over-sample Democrats.
Weighting results in Pennsylvania is particularly important, Lee said, "because we know with a pretty good degree of certainty how many registered Republicans and Democrats are going to show up" on Election Day.
give me a realistic, non koolaid romney fan verion of Romney getting to 270 without Michigan/PA/ and Ohio.
Romney is not even running ads in Pa. They came from the lips of Joe Scarborough, hardly a lefty. So I must admit, I fail to see a way for Mitt without Ohio, meaning the 150 plus year trend would continue.
So I'd also be curious as to other Romney means to 270, that are realistic, meaning where polls show him CLOSER than his rcp -2.4 situation in Ohio.
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