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The answers are pretty simple. Arizona will most likely go for Obama. He has been ahead there ever since the Gabby Giffords shooting. After 2 years of Republican nonsense, Anglo Arizona voters are tired of being governed by wing-nuts, and the Hispanics don't exactly love the way their friends and relatives have been treated there. The Democratic ground game is massive there.
Missouri has been in the Romney camp since the first. It hasn't swayed at all.
Ask yourself why Romney hasn't been spending time in California or Washington. Both states have lots and lots of conservatives. You need a look at the electoral map, not the map of the states; at this late stage, electors are the ones who count the most. That's why both candidates are concentrating on the big swing states.
They are also not happy about Cartel Wars spilling over the border into their State either.
It’s still a divided country. I can’t imagine any candidate winning by a landslide in the foreseeable future.
The 2008 map was an anomaly. The 2004 map is a better benchmark.
An equally important question is: Why are there so few swing states? In the last cycle the Republicans contested states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, New Mexico and Minnesota.
Without those in play, Romney has to run the table with the remaining swing states, and why he’s unlikely to win despite his recent momentum.
It’s still a divided country. I can’t imagine any candidate winning by a landslide in the foreseeable future.
The 2008 map was an anomaly. The 2004 map is a better benchmark.
An equally important question is: Why are there so few swing states? In the last cycle the Republicans contested states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, New Mexico and Minnesota.
Without those in play, Romney has to run the table with the remaining swing states, and why he’s unlikely to win despite his recent momentum.
He doesn't have to "run the table". He might though.
The point is,Obama is actually in a weaker position than W was in 2004. Quite a fall from grace.
It's a bad sign when you are destined to do worse and win less states than you did last time.
The answers are pretty simple. Arizona will most likely go for Obama. He has been ahead there ever since the Gabby Giffords shooting. After 2 years of Republican nonsense, Anglo Arizona voters are tired of being governed by wing-nuts, and the Hispanics don't exactly love the way their friends and relatives have been treated there. The Democratic ground game is massive there.
I'm sure all of Sheriff Joe's supporters will vote for Obama.
He doesn't have to "run the table". He might though.
The point is,Obama is actually in a weaker position than W was in 2004. Quite a fall from grace.
It's a bad sign when you are destined to do worse and win less states than you did last time.
I think a better comparison is Bush I's second election. Both inherited an imploded economy, that cast a pall over their first terms. People tend to want to take it out on an incumbent, regardless of who is to blame. By that yardstick, Obama is going considerably better than Bush, though still vulnerable to challenge. It would be very hard to weather such a recession without some political damage. A lot of incumbents in Europe have been sent packing.
He doesn't have to "run the table". He might though.
The point is,Obama is actually in a weaker position than W was in 2004. Quite a fall from grace.
It's a bad sign when you are destined to do worse and win less states than you did last time.
He has to win a lot more states than Obama does. Romney could win Ohio, Virginia, and Florida and still lose the electoral college by one vote. Obama has more options. My point is that all of the states that are in play are traditional swing states or Bush states, like Virginia. Romney isn't competitive in any Kerry states. The story is that the Republicans have been on the defensive in the electoral college for the entire election.
If it make you feel better to rationalize it as Obama is not doing as well as he did the last time, go ahead. But a win in the electoral college is a win. The margin is immaterial.
He has to win a lot more states than Obama does. Romney could win Ohio, Virginia, and Florida and still lose the electoral college by one vote. Obama has more options. My point is that all of the states that are in play are traditional swing states or Bush states, like Virginia. Romney isn't competitive in any Kerry states. The story is that the Republicans have been on the defensive in the electoral college for the entire election.
And the other story is the GOP's shrinking base. Regardless of what happens this election, shifting demographics are going to be their biggest problem going forward.
And the other story is the GOP's shrinking base. Regardless of what happens this election, shifting demographics are going to be their biggest problem going forward.
True. People aren't talking about it for fear of creating complete panic, but there are Republican analysts who suggest that if the GOP doesn't solve its Latino problem, this could be the last competitive election cycle ever.
He has to win a lot more states than Obama does. Romney could win Ohio, Virginia, and Florida and still lose the electoral college by one vote. Obama has more options. My point is that all of the states that are in play are traditional swing states or Bush states, like Virginia. Romney isn't competitive in any Kerry states. The story is that the Republicans have been on the defensive in the electoral college for the entire election.
If it make you feel better to rationalize it as Obama is not doing as well as he did the last time, go ahead. But a win in the electoral college is a win. The margin is immaterial.
Romney is competitive in Wisconsin. He is also very competitive in New Hampshire,two Kerry states.
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