Quote:
Originally Posted by wutitiz
I could be wrong. As I always say, a prediction does not constitute an argument. But I honestly believe that Warren would be a redux of George McGovern in 1972, who lost all states except Massachusetts. The country is still center right. In fact it is probably shifted more right than it was in 1972, since Reagan redefined the political spectrum.
Barack Obama won in 2008 based on being a 'blank screen' and in 2012 based on identity politics. The one chance that Warren would have would be identity politics based on her gender. But history suggests that identity politics based on gender is not nearly as effective as identity politics based on race. It did not work for Mondale-Ferraro in 1984. Mondale Ferraro lost 49 states. Nor did it work for McCain Palin in 2008.
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Agreed. Her only hope would be get a real moderate as a running mate, but I don't know if even that would work. I think Americans are open to a woman president, but I think it will be a moderate republican, not a northeast liberal.