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With that map I gave her Virginia, Colorado and Pennsylvania. All she needed after that was eleven votes which could come from OH, FL, WI or a combo of NV and IA. NC is so right wing now I wouldn't expect that one but FL, WI, OH or the NV and IA combo would work.
I wouldn't be so sure about NC. Things are not going well. The legislature keeps passing laws that the feds strike down. They just pulled a half a million out of the disaster fund to fight the feds on HB2. Businesses are canceling expansion plans. Worse yet, NBA All Star game was just pulled. Now things are getting serious.
Despite the peppy ads about how pro-business he is, Governor McCrory is looking beleaguered these days.
Last edited by GotHereQuickAsICould; 07-25-2016 at 12:18 AM..
This agrees pretty much with my views ... except ... I am not so sure Trump will carry Florida (which has a LOT of Hispanic voters), and I feel Trump will probably carry Arizona.
Either way Clinton will get to 270 and Trump won't.
This agrees pretty much with my views ... except ... I am not so sure Trump will carry Florida (which has a LOT of Hispanic voters), and I feel Trump will probably carry Arizona.
Obama won Florida in 2008 by 2% and in 2012 by less than 1%...he got 95% of Blacks and 70% of the Latino vote.
46% of the electorate stayed home and the majority of them are white.
Hillary is NO Obama as a campaigner and Trump is better than Romney and Mccain.
in 2016, a year anti establishment, I don't see Hillary doing better than Obama......Obama won Florida in 2012 by less than 1%.....unless a bunch of Latinos moved in FL since 2012 and a bunch of whites moved out and that 46% of the electorate that stayed home in 2012 which the majority are Whites stays home again,,,,,I don't see how Hillary wins Florida.
I like Trump's chances in Florida.....Hillary is not going to get 95% of the black vote.....maybe 85% at best but Trump will bring part of that 46% of the electorate that stayed home in 2012 and most of them are white.
Trump does not have any chance of winning Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio or Virginia. The electorates in Colorado, Florida and Virginia have all become younger, more urban, more ethnically diverse, and better educated even in just the 4 years since the last Presidential election. These are all demographics that Trump loses even more than McCain or Romney.
I think that the idea of Pennsylvania trending Republican is an illusion created by wishful thinking. Most Pennsylvanians live in its large urban areas which dominate the state politically. It doesn't matter if most counties in northern and western PA vote red; they don't have enough people for it to matter any more. A Republican candidate would need to win the urbanized suburbs of the big metros in order to have a chance to win PA but Trump doesn't appeal to college educated whites living in urban metros.
As for Ohio, the feud between Kasich and Trump essentially kills Trump's hopes for winning the state. Popular governors are powerful forces in their states, and Trump's ignorance of that political reality cooks his goose in Ohio. The state GOP in Ohio isn't going to do much for Trump.
Hillary is NO Obama and you know it, she is NO Obama campaigning and she has lots of negatives and high untrusthworthy,,,,Obama had HIGH trusthworthy ratings for 2012.
2012:
Obama won Florida by less than 1%
Obama won Ohio by 3%
Obama won Pennsylvania by 5%.
if you think Hillary can do better than Obama under the current circumstances and the mood of the country, then you are living in a bubble.
Trump is a better candidate to bring voter turnout than Mccain and Romney, if you don't admit that then your bias makes you blind.
Trump does not have any chance of winning Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio or Virginia. The electorates in Colorado, Florida and Virginia have all become younger, more urban, more ethnically diverse, and better educated even in just the 4 years since the last Presidential election. These are all demographics that Trump loses even more than McCain or Romney.
I think that the idea of Pennsylvania trending Republican is an illusion created by wishful thinking. Most Pennsylvanians live in its large urban areas which dominate the state politically. It doesn't matter if most counties in northern and western PA vote red; they don't have enough people for it to matter any more. A Republican candidate would need to win the urbanized suburbs of the big metros in order to have a chance to win PA but Trump doesn't appeal to college educated whites living in urban metros.
As for Ohio, the feud between Kasich and Trump essentially kills Trump's hopes for winning the state. Popular governors are powerful forces in their states, and Trump's ignorance of that political reality cooks his goose in Ohio. The state GOP in Ohio isn't going to do much for Trump.
Taking in consideration the source I provided (which takes many other polls into consideration): Florida: 1 month ago, Trump was 4.8 percentual points behind, now it is virtually tied. Pennsylvania: 1 month ago, Trump was 6.8 percentual points behind, now he is 1.9 points behind. Ohio: 1 month ago, Trump was 4.1 percentual points behind, now it is virtually tied.
Even though it's an anti-establishment year, I still believe that the vast majority of minority voters (LGBT, black, Latino, women, etc.) will vote in favor of Hillary.
Some people classify women/females as a Democrat/identity politics interest group, like your other examples, but they aren't a minority. The population of the United States has been more than 50% female since at least 1955....
Obama won Florida in 2008 by 2% and in 2012 by less than 1%...he got 95% of Blacks and 70% of the Latino vote.
46% of the electorate stayed home and the majority of them are white.
Hillary is NO Obama as a campaigner and Trump is better than Romney and Mccain.
in 2016, a year anti establishment, I don't see Hillary doing better than Obama......Obama won Florida in 2012 by less than 1%.....unless a bunch of Latinos moved in FL since 2012 and a bunch of whites moved out and that 46% of the electorate that stayed home in 2012 which the majority are Whites stays home again,,,,,I don't see how Hillary wins Florida.
I like Trump's chances in Florida.....Hillary is not going to get 95% of the black vote.....maybe 85% at best but Trump will bring part of that 46% of the electorate that stayed home in 2012 and most of them are white.
I think the ability of much of the MSM to sway the sheep and appeal to individual selfishness is grossly underestimated, and that the mindless meme of 'the first woman president' is also being grossly underestimated. I would prefer it if Hillary never saw the inside of the White House again for any reason, but I think she will win in a landslide.
I think that the idea of Pennsylvania trending Republican is an illusion created by wishful thinking. Most Pennsylvanians live in its large urban areas which dominate the state politically. It doesn't matter if most counties in northern and western PA vote red; they don't have enough people for it to matter any more. A Republican candidate would need to win the urbanized suburbs of the big metros in order to have a chance to win PA but Trump doesn't appeal to college educated whites living in urban metros.
An interesting fact about Pennsylvania is that our only state-wide elected Republican official, Senator Pat Toomey, refuses to endorse Donald Trump.
Sen. Toomey stayed away from the GOP convention in Cleveland last week.
According to The Morning Call, the major daily newspaper that serves not only Allentown (3rd largest city in PA) by nearby Bethlehem and Easton as well, Sen. Toomey is trying to distance himself from Donald as much as possible.
Maybe Sen. Toomey knows something we don't.
I cannot comment on Florida or Ohio ... I don't live there. I am a Pennsylvanian, and I follow politics in the Quaker State and nearby Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York as well.
An interesting fact about Pennsylvania is that our only state-wide elected Republican official, Senator Pat Toomey, refuses to endorse Donald Trump.
Sen. Toomey stayed away from the GOP convention in Cleveland last week.
According to The Morning Call, the major daily newspaper that serves not only Allentown (3rd largest city in PA) by nearby Bethlehem and Easton as well, Sen. Toomey is trying to distance himself from Donald as much as possible.
Maybe Sen. Toomey knows something we don't.
I cannot comment on Florida or Ohio ... I don't live there. I am a Pennsylvanian, and I follow politics in the Quaker State and nearby Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York as well.
Toomey's actions speak louder than words. He's probably concerned that if he embraces Trump, he'll get murdered in the Philly area.
Rubio and Portman endorse Trump. Ayotte and Toomey do not. That tells you something about the difference in the lay of the land in Florida and Ohio on one hand, and New Hampshire and Pennsylvania on the other.
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