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Arizona (likely for Trump to win) Colorado (likely for Hillary to win) Florida (evenly matched) Iowa (evenly matched but momentum for Trump) Michigan (almost certain Hillary to win, but with Trump getting closer) Minnesota (almost certain Hillary to win, but with Trump getting closer) Nevada (evenly matched, advantage for Hillary, momentum for Trump) New Hampshire (evenly matched, advantage for Hillary, momentum for Trump) North Carolina (likely for Trump to win) Ohio (pretty much a draw right now with Trump gaining) Pennsylavnia (evenly matched) Virginia (likely for Hillary to win) Wisconsin (likely for Hillary to win)
(7) States Trump has a decent shot at winning in comparision to the 2012 election: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia (2) States Hillary has a decent shot at winning in comparision to the 2012 election: Arizona, North Carolina
Arizona (likely for Trump to win) Colorado (likely for Hillary to win) Florida (evenly matched) Iowa (evenly matched but momentum for Trump) Michigan (almost certain Hillary to win, but with Trump getting closer) Minnesota (almost certain Hillary to win, but with Trump getting closer) Nevada (evenly matched, advantage for Hillary, momentum for Trump) New Hampshire (evenly matched, advantage for Hillary, momentum for Trump) North Carolina (likely for Trump to win) Ohio (pretty much a draw right now with Trump gaining) Pennsylavnia (evenly matched) Virginia (likely for Hillary to win) Wisconsin (likely for Hillary to win)
(7) States Trump has a decent shot at winning in comparision to the 2012 election: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia (2) States Hillary has a decent shot at winning in comparision to the 2012 election: Arizona, North Carolina
What do you think?
I looked at the chart, but could not see where it said 'Trump is gaining'. Where are those stats? Is that your opinion or 538?
I looked at the chart, but could not see where it said 'Trump is gaining'. Where are those stats? Is that your opinion or 538?
538. I tried to be as impartial as possible, I predicted based on the stats and current trends that are there (I don´t have any other insight im not even american)
Arizona (likely for Trump to win) Colorado (likely for Hillary to win) Florida (evenly matched) Iowa (evenly matched but momentum for Trump) Michigan (almost certain Hillary to win, but with Trump getting closer) Minnesota (almost certain Hillary to win, but with Trump getting closer) Nevada (evenly matched, advantage for Hillary, momentum for Trump) New Hampshire (evenly matched, advantage for Hillary, momentum for Trump) North Carolina (likely for Trump to win) Ohio (pretty much a draw right now with Trump gaining) Pennsylavnia (evenly matched) Virginia (likely for Hillary to win) Wisconsin (likely for Hillary to win)
(7) States Trump has a decent shot at winning in comparision to the 2012 election: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia (2) States Hillary has a decent shot at winning in comparision to the 2012 election: Arizona, North Carolina
What do you think?
This is very optimistic for Trump and not consistent with recent polling. My take as follows:
Pennsylvania to the Dems and won't be close
Florida to the Dems
North Carolina to Dems but will be close
Virginia is now locked up with Kaine on the ticket
If HC just wins Florida, Pennsylvania and Virginia (she will) and maintains the blue wall, its game set and match.
Don't know about the other states but I believe Ohio will go to Trump. PA is a bigger prize numbers-wise and could go either way.
Personally, I believe Trump will win. Hillary reminds me of when Republicans chose Bob Dole "because it was his turn". She's pandering way too much to blacks and to illegals from south of the border. Have to believe that's turning people off and could be the final nail in the coffin of her attempt to win in November.
#2 There are more registered Democrats than Republicans in PA
However, a more convincing argument is that PA is trending more Democrat than in the past 4, 8 or 12 years. For example the wealthier outer suburbs of Philadelphia in Bucks, Montgomery, Chester, and Delaware counties - once reliably Republican - are now solidly Democratic.
Let's look at just the past two years. In the Keystone State Democrats usually do well in the Presidential years, but the GOP does well in the off-year election. Last year that paradigm was demolished. The Democrats swept out the incumbent Republican governor, and they defeated all three Republican State Supreme Court seats and replaced them with Democrats.
The place where Republicans are strongest are the rural, semi-rural counties in northern and central PA - places like Bradford County, Lycoming County, Clearfield County, Cambria County, etc. - but these places are losing population; cities like Philly, Pittsburgh, Allentown are on the upswing again and they are solidly Democratic.
#2 There are more registered Democrats than Republicans in PA
However, a more convincing argument is that PA is trending more Democrat than in the past 4, 8 or 12 years. For example the wealthier outer suburbs of Philadelphia in Bucks, Montgomery, Chester, and Delaware counties - once reliably Republican - are now solidly Democratic.
Let's look at just the past two years. In the Keystone State Democrats usually do well in the Presidential years, but the GOP does well in the off-year election. Last year that paradigm was demolished. The Democrats swept out the incumbent Republican governor, and they defeated all three Republican State Supreme Court seats and replaced them with Democrats.
The place where Republicans are strongest are the rural, semi-rural counties in northern and central PA - places like Bradford County, Lycoming County, Clearfield County, Cambria County, etc. - but these places are losing population; cities like Philly, Pittsburgh, Allentown are on the upswing again and they are solidly Democratic.
Pennsylvania can indeed be decisive. Of course if u live in PA i´ll give extra credibility to your view but still I´m not really convinced PA is going to Hillary. Even if it is indeed a more democrat state (which is a surprise for me) you have to take the independents in consideration. PA is one of the states Hillary is losing support judging by the 538 polls and another thing I think should be taken in consideration almost 1/3 of the population has German ancestry (like Trump).
"The Democrats' registration edge is shrinking. In 2012 it was 1.1 million. Clinton and hubby are old news. There's a visceral anti-Hillary vote (probably stronger than a pro-Trump vote). Nobody wants a "third term" of Obama or Clinton.
And there's clear unrest. A Quinnipiac Pennsylvania poll this month shows 72 percent of voters believe "old ways don't work and it's time for radical change."
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