PPP: Pennsylvania Remains Close- Clinton Leads By 4

[WRnative]

Originally Posted by WaldoKitty

Republicans can only Gerrymander in their favor only AFTER, the state starts to vote for the GOP for state offices instead of the DEM.

This speaks for itself.

What? Political corruption is OK once Republicans gain control of a state, often due to Super PAC funding? And gerrymandering is one of the most overt and destructive forms of political corruption.

Republican supporters in this forum are so clearly NOT "good government" advocates.

[mrpeatie]

Originally Posted by Hellion1999

wrong!!

Obama won in 2008 by 10% in PA.....Obama won PA in 2012 by 5%.....now Hillary is up by 4% in a poll? how is this trending Democrat??? The trend is going down not up for Democrats.

lets breakdown the state politics in PA:

1) 1 Democrat governor that won PA by 9% in 2014....in 2010 the Republican governor won by 9% (it means both parties take turn at the governorship of the state)

2) Republican House 119-84 seat

3) Republican Senate 31-19 seat

4) U.S. Senator : 1 Democrat 1 Republican

5) U.S. House Delegation: 13 Republicans 5 Democrats



how is this trending Democrat????

You just provided the exceptions that prove the rule. The governor who lost in 2014 was elected in the same year as the current R senator- 2010. And in that R tidalwave the Senator won by only 2 points.


Those house seats and the state legislature have districts that were redrawn after that huge Republican year. So the districts are more R but the state is not. Toomey seems (from afar) to be a competent Senator but recent polls show that to be a tight race and his opponent pretty much laid an egg at the DNC last week so its not as if she personally has tightened the race based on her own qualities.


In the last 2 statewide elections its been the Ds on top of the ticket who prevailed. Actually in every year since about 04 with the exception of 2010.

[jas75]

While the congressional district map in Pennsylvania (and numerous other states) is gerrymandered, Republicans also have an advantage in that their voters are more efficiently distributed across the state. Many of the Democrats are very concentrated in the large urban centers - Philadelphia has over 10% of the state's population and it delivers far higher Democratic margins than any of the smaller counties run up for Republicans. Basically Republicans are winning narrowly in the majority of locations (yes, I know there are some areas they win strongly too), and Democrats are prevailing substantially in fewer areas of the state.

If Democrats want to get in a better position to win the majority in Congress and state legislatures, they need to appeal to more voters across a wider set of geographies - getting 75-80% in the urban districts and 40-45% elsewhere will keep them in the minority. But on a statewide level, I think Clinton is favored to carry Pennsylvania at this point in the election cycle - the majority of recent polls have suggested as much.

[BentBow]

Originally Posted by bellhead

We are seeing a them here. Barak won the state by 4 points.

Democrats have a 4 point advantage in Pennsylvania and it's not going to change.

Hillary isn't Barack... Then one only has to point out the cause of the Rust Belt, with Donald the only one talking illegal alien reform and enforcement, along with better trade deals to grind off the rust and make it the shiny polished belt.