Some please explain to me exactly how the polls are rigged? (voters, campaign)
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Sorry, but lately I've been hearing a lot from Trump and his supporters than the official polls are rigged and that Trump is actually leading over Hillary, nationally. Can someone please explain to me, in DETAIL, how this is the case? I just want to understand the why and how. I mean, back in 2012, Romney and his supporters kept saying that the polls were rigged, too, and they still LOST!
Please explain to me how they are rigged this time around.
I think the whole idea that one of the major polling organizations would deliberately rig its polling is pretty silly. The more often they're right, the more money they can charge to the next organization that wants a poll.
Now there are fly-by-night orgs that can be paid to produce misleading polls as a campaign tactic, but those results are for the gullible. The polling organizations that are aggregated by sources like RealClearPolitics and Fivethirtyeight intend to be around for the long haul, and they are very interested in having a track record for accuracy.
It is easy to explain. Since the polls are no longer showing trump in the lead, they have become somehow rigged. That is the only explanation that trumpists need.
I think the whole idea that one of the major polling organizations would deliberately rig its polling is pretty silly. The more often they're right, the more money they can charge to the next organization that wants a poll.
Now there are fly-by-night orgs that can be paid to produce misleading polls as a campaign tactic, but those results are for the gullible. The polling organizations that are aggregated by sources like RealClearPolitics and Fivethirtyeight intend to be around for the long haul, and they are very interested in having a track record for accuracy.
Oh wow. Great explanation. Thanks!
That makes a lot of sense though. Why would RealClearPolitics want to publish polls from sources that are not credible? I noticed that RCP does NOT include every single poll in their polling averages, probably because some of them are from not-so-credible sources.
It is easy to explain. Since the polls are no longer showing trump in the lead, they have become somehow rigged. That is the only explanation that trumpists need.
One problem is that the venerable Gallup organization is not doing presidential polling this cycle. Gallup realized that there were serious problems with methodology, given the rise of cell phones, caller ID, blocked calls, etc. It used to be that political observers waited for George Gallup (and his successors in said organization) to produce his poll results, since they were considered the 'gold standard'. Of course, even Mr. Gallup got things wrong on occasion (see "Dewey Wins" headline from decades ago).
Of course, with the absence of Gallup many other polling organizations have rushed to fill the vacuum. However, as I noted in an earlier thread, one common theme among these polling organizations is: they wish to be accurate. An organization that gets the reputation for 'tweaking' numbers to favor Clinton or Trump will have a short-life span, if their numbers end up incorrect.
To achieve accuracy, the various polling organizations are experimenting with combinations of calling landlines and cell phones. Come November, we will have a better idea of whom did the best.
I tend to focus on the more 'focused' polling: those that target black Americans, Hispanic Americans, less-then-college educated men, etc. I think (although I cannot know, of course) that these more specific polls are more accurate.
I also think, as stated before, that the two political parties are willing to spend the time and money for more accurate polling (plus, they probably have better access to resources, like the numbers of registered voters with a track record of voting in the past). The Republican and Democrats do not release the results of their private polling, but one may hazard a guess based on their 'reaction' to said polling.
One of my brother-in-laws worked as a 'bundler' for Edward Rafael Cruz, of Canadian fame. Back in the early primaries he was quite accurate in his predictions (at a family event) of how the early primaries would play out. I believe he had (through Cruz, as a Republican Senator) access to some of the Republican polling results. Of course, he also predicted in those early days that Mr. Cruz would end up sweeping all before him, although I believe he was being unduly optimistic.
Again, as for Mr. Trump's polling, watch how the Republican and Democratic party responds to their private polling. If the Republicans decide to pull funding from Mr. Trump's campaign and target the 'down ladder' races, you may safely presume that they have concluded that Mr. Trump is a lost cause. Yet, if Republicans up for reelection begin begging Mr. Trump to come campaign for them for a day, you may assume that his numbers are improving.
I read herein somewhere that the Clinton campaign has decided to not spend money on ads in certain states (Colorado, for one, and Virginia), which indicates that, at least presently, they feel such states are 'safe' for the time being.
It is easy to explain. Since the polls are no longer showing trump in the lead, they have become somehow rigged. That is the only explanation that trumpists need.
Sorry, but lately I've been hearing a lot from Trump and his supporters than the official polls are rigged and that Trump is actually leading over Hillary, nationally. Can someone please explain to me, in DETAIL, how this is the case? I just want to understand the why and how. I mean, back in 2012, Romney and his supporters kept saying that the polls were rigged, too, and they still LOST!
Please explain to me how they are rigged this time around.
Simple you want certain result you make a deal with the pollster on the amount of money to get said deal done. Its why I trust NO POLL positive for Trump or Negative.
I'm a Trump supporter (actually more like a Hillary UN-supporter) and I doubt that the polls are rigged. The only poll I care about is the one on election day. Too much can happen in the meantime, particularly with the 2 characters running this time.
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