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All of Nate Silver's models today flipped Florida, Nevada and North Carolina to Clinton.
Not sure where he had New Hampshire, but it's showing blue as well.
All of Nate Silver's models today flipped Florida, Nevada and North Carolina to Clinton.
Not sure where he had New Hampshire, but it's showing blue as well.
I think it's odd that the NowCast and the Polls-only Forecast still haven't converged with only one day left to go.
There's lots of buzz about a surge in Hispanic voters. I'm wondering how many of the major pollsters are bilingual? How many robocalls are English-only and get hung up on because no one at home speaks English? Human poll takers, how many interviews are aborted because the poll taker doesn't know Spanish?
Hispanics have sown up Nevada for the Democrats per Jon Ralston the guru of Nevada politics. Clark County has +75k more democratic votes than republicans the majority of whom are Hispanic and english isn't their first language.
He is on record saying a lot of households hang up if the person opens in English. This eliminates a large portion of likely voters from polls and leads to under reporting of Hispanics in polls. Reid won his re-election 2010 by several points when he was down 4 or 5 on the day of the election.
It looks like Arizona might go this way due to record turnout among hispanics. In 2008 they comprised something like 6% of the voter turnout, in 2012 11%, and early voting from last thursday has them at %12 and there were several more early voting days that say heavy Latino turnout. It may be up around 18 to 20% when it is all said and done. Will this be enough to push Hillary over the edge in Arizona along with Donald being a very weak candiate? It may very well be.
About 1.4 million Arizonans have voted early, and according to AZCentral, the Arizona Democratic party is reporting that about 12 percent of those ballots came from Hispanic voters. This is nearly double the turnout of 2012, when by this point, six percent of the ballots cast early came from Hispanics.
Based on polling, it’s safe to say that the majority of Hispanics and Latinos who voted early did not vote for Donald Trump. A Univision poll conducted in September found that 68 percent of Hispanic voters in Arizona plan to vote for Hillary Clinton, while 18 percent said they’d vote for Donald Trump.
The number early ballots from Democrats in Arizona has gone up this year, and the turnout among Republicans has decreased. According to Catalist (via CNN), 33.3 percent of the ballots turned in as of November 1st, 2016 come from Democrats. That number was 32.3 percent at this point in 2012. Meanwhile, 38.8 percent of the ballots come from registered Republicans. While the GOP is still in the lead, that number was 42.3 percent in 2012. As we’ve seen in a few other swing states, the Democratic turnout isn’t necessarily way up, but the Republican turnout has noticeably decreased.
Here are selected quotes from today's entry in Steve Schale's Florida Politics blog on early voting in Florida. There's much more detail in the link listed below.
Quote:
So you end up with this scenario -- a fairly close partisan break, but below that, you saw surging Hispanic, surging NPA, and growing proof that the electorate would be more diverse than it was in 2012. Then we also learn that a large chunk of the GOP advantage was built with voters who were registered Dems in 2012 (though almost certainly not Dem Voters), as well as the GOP having cannibalized more of its own Election Day vote, and I began to realize this was looking better each day.
Quote:
So when I get asked -- all the freaking time -- about the fact the R versus D number is lower for the Dems than 2012, I answer, sure. And last week, I did worry about it, but this week, what has become clear is that structurally, we live in a state with more NPA, and more old conservative Dems who have switched parties, which drive down the total. But, we also live in a state that is getting more diverse, more quickly, and based on the 2012 experience, that is far more important in my eyes.
Quote:
Could there be a Trump surge on Tuesday? It is possible, because the counties most under-performing right now are Trump counties. His problem, most of them are very small, part of what Jonathan Martin called the Gingrich Counties (where Newt beat Romney)-- those rural places in-between all the big counties.
Hispanics have sown up Nevada for the Democrats per Jon Ralston the guru of Nevada politics. Clark County has +75k more democratic votes than republicans the majority of whom are Hispanic and english isn't their first language.
He is on record saying a lot of households hang up if the person opens in English. This eliminates a large portion of likely voters from polls and leads to under reporting of Hispanics in polls. Reid won his re-election 2010 by several points when he was down 4 or 5 on the day of the election.
Thanks bellhead. If Hispanics do outperform the polls in certain states there's going to be teeth-gnashing and post-mortems among the pollsters about how they need to be multi-lingual and adjusting for demographics.
I think that Trump is making a fatal error in spending too much time in Michigan and Pennsylvania. He won't be able to win those states.
That time and resources would be better spent in Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Colorado and Nevada. Trump doesn't need either Pennsylvania or Michigan to possibly reach 270. New Hampshire and Maine CD2 would get him to 270 along with those other must win states that he has had a lead in!
I think that Trump is making a fatal error in spending too much time in Michigan and Pennsylvania. He won't be able to win those states.
That time and resources would be better spent in Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Colorado and Nevada. Trump doesn't need either Pennsylvania or Michigan to possibly reach 270. New Hampshire and Maine CD2 would get him to 270 along with those other must win states that he has had a lead in!
If he doesn't move one of the blue rust belt states, he has to run the table on all of the others with virtually no margin for error, and that means sweeping or nearly sweeping those tossups with significant Latino turnout. That's probably unrealistic. He's responding to his private polling results and knows he has to pull a shocker of an upset to win. It's a desperate move for desperate times for his campaign. Given Clinton's campaign stops in the last days too, they know that there's a risk in the Rust Belt, so they're sending their surrogate army to help drive their base to the polls. It remains a long shot for Trump, but it's probably the best play left.
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