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Yes but Trump is tied in the poll that was the closest last election, trailing by 1 in the LA Times (even though he's dropped in that poll, he's still within the margin of error), and up 2 in the Rasmussen.
National polls aren't all that matters. You could win each state by 2 votes and have an Electoral College blowout. That said, haven't we already talked about not putting too much weight on any one poll?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Traveler
That up 12 for Hillary ABC poll, polled 33% more Dems than Repubs, you think that's going to happen on election day?
More people identify as Democrats than Republicans. A lot of former Republicans now identify as independents. I guess you missed that discussion back in 2012. Or maybe you conveniently forgot about it.
I seriously doubt Clinton will win by a 12 point margin. But her margin of victory doesn't really matter to me. I just want the W.
Why are you name calling and changing the subject?
First: I'm calling you "eddiehaskell". What would you like to be called instead.
Second: Why are you trying to deflect attention away from how my reply demonstrated that you were not doing what you yourself said others should do?
Third: I'm not changing the subject at all. This thread is about the polls. I posted a snapshot of them. Directly on-subject.
Quote:
Originally Posted by eddiehaskell
Yes, you could look at all the polls and average them but is there really a guarantee that the average will be close to the final outcome when you have such dramatic variations (1-2% vs 12%)?
When I taught probability and statistics to college sophomores, I recall assigning a question pretty much along those lines as a homework assignment. You should do the research and learn for yourself: Create a population of data. Then sample it a number of times. Determine the variance of each sample. Then reverse engineer the average and check the variance of the average.
The answer is yes: Enlarging the sample reduces the variance.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Traveler
The last 3 national polls average out to a slight Trump lead....so just ignore these until you get one you like then call the election?
eddiehaskell insisted on cherry-picking it down to the last 5 national polls last week, instead of what RCP says to do, average the last 10 national polls. Now you're cherry-picking it down to 3 national polls because cherry-picking 5 national polls no longer shows the answer you like.
At work, we call that "solution shopping".
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Traveler
So because Hillary is ahead by 1 in the LA times, behind 2 in the Rasmussen, and tied in IDB, it means the election is over?
No. The national polls don't say anything important about the POTUS election at this point, given that we have so much state-by-state polling data to use now.
HRC is currently on track to carry more states than Obama in 2012, but fewer than 2008. Obama won the popular vote by 3.9% and 7.7% respectively, so it's safe to say HRC's national lead is somewhere in between:
Current RCP average: HRC +6.1%
OMG, this polling stuff is like magic!! Especially when you don't cherrypick!!
Liberals, what are the odds, do you think, that Hillary could lose the popular vote and win the Presidency? Theoretically possible but much more likely that Trump would lose the overall vote but still be elected President through the EC. So I don't know which polls are right but if it's IBD (the closest last election), Trump wins.
Yes but Trump is tied in the poll that was the closest last election, trailing by 1 in the LA Times (even though he's dropped in that poll, he's still within the margin of error), and up 2 in the Rasmussen.
That up 12 for Hillary ABC poll, polled 33% more Dems than Repubs, you think that's going to happen on election day?
33% more is really strange math you got there.
The poll was Dem +9, might be slightly high but certainly in range.
Am I reading this right? Or did you reverse these?
That is what the poll shows. With that being said, I wouldn't put too much stock into it. While most polls show it close nothing else really matches it. Also, the VA poll seems off the other way, as nothing else shows it that close. I highly doubt the difference in margin in VA and GA is 1 point considering pretty much everything else has a 10 point or more gap.
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