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It's not possible. Behind every poll is a model - it's unavoidable - and the model is a set of assumptions that can be wrong.
Think about this. Say you have a big room with 10,000 people and you want to poll a subset of them to estimate the overall % of people who prefer Trump vs Hillary. You can sample 1,000 of them at random and (assuming no one lies) you can use statistics to calculate a margin of error and confidence interval. This kind of polling is mathematically sound because you are able to obtain a random sample of whole the population
But polling for a real election isn't like this. The population you want to sample is people who will vote. But there is no "room" of people who will vote that you can sample. So there is no way to sample that exact population in the correct ratios. You can make a model about who is likely to vote based on age, sex, race, blah blah blah, but those are assumptions. If Trump voters are simply more "energized" then your poll will be slanted unless you can somehow determine that fact - and how could you?
On top of that, in this election, there was so much Trump shaming that I'm sure some % of Trump voters either lied or refused to answer.
Including a Brit Brexit polling firm. Who says the tide is not turning, worldwide?
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty
^Trump had an analytics team in Texas who figured this out too. They were the ones who identified the Hillary's weaknesses in Wisconsin, Michigan & Pennsylvania.
The answer is quite simple yet many can't see it. Polls were wrong because Trump supporters by the MSM were labeled and called racist, stupid, rednecks, sexists, homophobic. The icing on the cake was Clinton herself called half of Trump's supporters a basket of deplorables. No dialog or opposing opinion was allowed. You were just labeled, and turned into an ugly bigoted person, end of story.
Not all self respecting middle of the road Americans were going to admit they were voting for Trump whether it was to their friends or a pollster asking them.
Many people kept their mouths shut and waiting until they were in the privacy of the voting booth to express their opinions. Doesn't anyone else get that?
The MSM and liberals lost all control of polls when they continued to degrade Trump supporters and it backfired on them big time.
Last edited by marino760; 12-18-2016 at 07:26 AM..
Trump didn't win his home state! With help from Russia, Trump could have won California!
Hello? New York City is an ultra left city. Why on earth would they vote for someone that is pushing a conservative agenda? Why not ask, why didn't Hillary win Arkansas since she was First Lady there and lived there for many years? For the same reason people in New York City didn't vote for Trump.
It has been stated that much of the problem with the polls this year were the people that planned to vote for Trump but were understandably embarrassed and ashamed to admit it to those taking the poll.
The national polls were actually not that far off the mark with Clinton winning by a little bit more than 2%. It was at the state level where the polls were not accurate.
It has been stated that much of the problem with the polls this year were the people that planned to vote for Trump but were understandably embarrassed and ashamed to admit it to those taking the poll.
The national polls were actually not that far off the mark with Clinton winning by a little bit more than 2%. It was at the state level where the polls were not accurate.
Depends which polls. Some
National
Polls had Hillary up 15 points ahead
Trump didn't win his home state! With help from Russia, Trump could have won California!
NY is more blue then the bottom of the ocean. If Trump was the Democratic nominee, he would of won, even if his actual policys were virtually the same.
It's not possible. Behind every poll is a model - it's unavoidable - and the model is a set of assumptions that can be wrong.
Think about this. Say you have a big room with 10,000 people and you want to poll a subset of them to estimate the overall % of people who prefer Trump vs Hillary. You can sample 1,000 of them at random and (assuming no one lies) you can use statistics to calculate a margin of error and confidence interval. This kind of polling is mathematically sound because you are able to obtain a random sample of whole the population
But polling for a real election isn't like this. The population you want to sample is people who will vote. But there is no "room" of people who will vote that you can sample. So there is no way to sample that exact population in the correct ratios. You can make a model about who is likely to vote based on age, sex, race, blah blah blah, but those are assumptions. If Trump voters are simply more "energized" then your poll will be slanted unless you can somehow determine that fact - and how could you?
On top of that, in this election, there was so much Trump shaming that I'm sure some % of Trump voters either lied or refused to answer.
I tend to agree, the models either turn out to be correct or flawed. I think it's fair to say people won't forget either the polls errors both with Brexit and with Trump. I question whether the models were wrong because the pollsters were biased or just incorrect.
I read 3 days before the election that 96% of the pollsters that contributed to a campaign contributed to Hillary and that's when I felt Trump might win. At that point, I pulled significant money out of the stock market because of the predictions a Trump win would lead to a market crash. Then after missing the first 2 days of the Trump bump, got back in.
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