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^^It depends on how bad Trump messes things up. If things get that bad, he will only have the white evangelical Protestant base that he can count on. In states where white evangelicals make up less than 50% of the population, Trump will have trouble winning. If Democrats are smart and nominated a center-left candidate and not a far-left one, it could be a situation where Trump only wins the few states in the South Central region (Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Alabama) where evangelicals make up 40% or more of the population.
Note that I am focused on evangelicals here because most of them will always vote Republican because they feel it's their religious obligation to do so until Roe v Wade and Obergefell are overturned. Other right-leaning people may make an exception and vote Democrat one time if Trump is that bad.
I know it's a little early, but here is how I predict the 2020 map will look. If this isn't it, i'll be back to this thread in four years to say I was wrong.
Location: Born in L.A. - NYC is Second Home - Rustbelt is Home Base
1,607 posts, read 1,086,978 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bawac34618
I know it's a little early, but here is how I predict the 2020 map will look. If this isn't it, i'll be back to this thread in four years to say I was wrong.
Location: Born in L.A. - NYC is Second Home - Rustbelt is Home Base
1,607 posts, read 1,086,978 times
Reputation: 1372
Quote:
Originally Posted by bawac34618
^^It depends on how bad Trump messes things up. If things get that bad, he will only have the white evangelical Protestant base that he can count on. In states where white evangelicals make up less than 50% of the population, Trump will have trouble winning. If Democrats are smart and nominated a center-left candidate and not a far-left one, it could be a situation where Trump only wins the few states in the South Central region (Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Alabama) where evangelicals make up 40% or more of the population.
Note that I am focused on evangelicals here because most of them will always vote Republican because they feel it's their religious obligation to do so until Roe v Wade and Obergefell are overturned. Other right-leaning people may make an exception and vote Democrat one time if Trump is that bad.
No, not really. Reps have more in their pocket. A vote for a dem is a vote to confiscate guns. It is the hope of the dems they can ruin the country enuf in 4 years to sway the vote.
Location: Born in L.A. - NYC is Second Home - Rustbelt is Home Base
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Camaro5
475 to 63 in favor of the Dems is not realistic even if they resurrected JFK.
There are two thing that have to be considered. If Pres. Trump keeps his promises, which it looks like he'll do, and the country is in a better place, he will be difficult to defeat.
Also, the Dems have to run a candidate that is more mainstream and not so far to the left in order to get back the independent voters they lost. Most of the independents that voted for Trump do not buy into the hysteria the liberals are promoting and will vote against that kind of agenda.
I'm not saying a Democrat couldn't win, but it wouldn't be by that kind of margin. It's more likely Trump wins another term by the same margin he won by in 2016.
Mainstream? Dems cannot be trusted on their word. Remember Obama was against homosexual marriage...when he gets in he magically changes to bringing in homosexual marriage. Same with the rest. Dems will promise no gun confiscation...they get in and boom...send in your guns. Dems would sell their mother out for a vote. Witness the illegals coming into the country...just so they can have their vote.
SC and KS going Dem???? REALLY? (Short of catching the GOP candidate having relations with a horse 3 days before the election.)
Anyway dead wrong on MT, NE, KS, TN, SC, GA.
GA maybe in 2028 as the East coast homogenizes. Except for SC.
Oh, but the horse asked for it. You know how those long-legged fillies are...
Yes, this map is way too optimistic. That said, I think Trump, if he's still in office, will have a difficult time against any respectable Democratic or viable third-party opponent, but it's far too early to call 2020.
Right now, the congressional elections of 2018 are more likely to reflect significant change.
I know it's a little early, but here is how I predict the 2020 map will look. If this isn't it, i'll be back to this thread in four years to say I was wrong.
Although I like your map, I envision it as somewhat more balanced than that. However, I see the Republican candidate for president likely being Pence, not Trump
I know it's a little early, but here is how I predict the 2020 map will look. If this isn't it, i'll be back to this thread in four years to say I was wrong.
Oh, but the horse asked for it. You know how those long-legged fillies are...
Yes, this map is way too optimistic. That said, I think Trump, if he's still in office, will have a difficult time against any respectable Democratic or viable third-party opponent, but it's far too early to call 2020.
Right now, the congressional elections of 2018 are more likely to reflect significant change.
Trump won 30 states with 306 electoral.....he did it by fighting a long primary of 17 candidates and not getting support from the GOP establishment and getting outspent in the primary and general.
In 2020, Trump will have the advantage because he is the sitting President and he won't have any challenge from the party and he will have money advantage over the DEMOCRAT candidate who will come out bloody in a civil war in the democrat party and spend lots of money.
The Democrats don't have a deep bench.
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