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It's too hard to predict that far into the future. Trump is an unconventional candidate that uses unconventional methods to achieve unconventional goals. There is no political calculus anymore.
Trump won 30 states with 306 electoral.....he did it by fighting a long primary of 17 candidates and not getting support from the GOP establishment and getting outspent in the primary and general.
In 2020, Trump will have the advantage because he is the sitting President and he won't have any challenge from the party and he will have money advantage over the DEMOCRAT candidate who will come out bloody in a civil war in the democrat party and spend lots of money.
The Democrats don't have a deep bench.
I'll be surprised if this country makes it through four years of this psycopath, let alone eight. In 2020, all liberals and most moderates will be voting Democrat. I won't be surprised if many lifelong Republicans hold their nose and vote Democrat one time only just to get Trump out. It will only be about 20-30% of the vote that he will be able to count on. If we go into a recession or get in a war with somebody the American people have no desire to see war with, expect that to go down to 15-20%.
Don't count on the map having a lot of red on it in 2020.
I'll be surprised if this country makes it through four years of this psycopath, let alone eight. In 2020, all liberals and most moderates will be voting Democrat. I won't be surprised if many lifelong Republicans hold their nose and vote Democrat one time only just to get Trump out. It will only be about 20-30% of the vote that he will be able to count on. If we go into a recession or get in a war with somebody the American people have no desire to see war with, expect that to go down to 15-20%.
Don't count on the map having a lot of red on it in 2020.
That's what liberals were saying last year before the election too. Lmao.
I'll be surprised if this country makes it through four years of this psycopath, let alone eight. In 2020, all liberals and most moderates will be voting Democrat. I won't be surprised if many lifelong Republicans hold their nose and vote Democrat one time only just to get Trump out. It will only be about 20-30% of the vote that he will be able to count on. If we go into a recession or get in a war with somebody the American people have no desire to see war with, expect that to go down to 15-20%.
Don't count on the map having a lot of red on it in 2020.
Speak for yourself..........I see Trump keeping all the red states and having a good shot at keeping the swing states he won in 2016......the DEMOCRAT party has gone too progressive under Obama the reason the Democrat party under Obama lost the house, senate and WH and the majority of the governorship and state legislatures of this country 34 states for Republicans to 16 states for Democrats.
and what's the answer for Democrats? double down and go more progressive left.
remember Trump won in 2016 with a strong libertarian candidate taking votes away from the GOP and still Trump got to 306 E.V. ........I see many republicans who voted for Johnson returning to the GOP in 2020 when they see how progressive left the Democrat party has become.
by the way, Trump IS NOT a globalist, so your prediction that he will start wars is based on non-sense. He will put America first on trade deals and immigration....if he does that he has a good shot on re-election since its really hard to beat an incumbent President without a civil war within the base of the party like Jimmy Carter had in 1980 and Bush Sr. had in 1992 when Ross Perot ran as an independent conservative and got 19% of the vote helping a weak candidate in Bill Clinton win.........as long Trump puts America first with no apologies I like his chances.
The GOP has become alt-right. I think Johnson took from Hillary more than from Trump. Most Trump voters weren't going to vote for somebody like Johnson who is pro-marijuana legalization, pro-gay, pro-choice, etc. A lot of people voted Johnson because they could not morally vote for Hillary considering her corruption. If Democrats nominate a moderate to center-left, they will have it in the bag. The only way Trump wins in 2020 is if Democrats run Hillary again (or somebody equally as corrupt) or if they nominate somebody who is far left and out of touch with the mainstream.
Keep in mind, a majority of Democratic and Independent voters who sometimes vote Democrat aren't the people you see out protesting and starting violence and are not the Hollywood liberal elite.
The GOP has become alt-right. I think Johnson took from Hillary more than from Trump. Most Trump voters weren't going to vote for somebody like Johnson who is pro-marijuana legalization, pro-gay, pro-choice, etc. A lot of people voted Johnson because they could not morally vote for Hillary considering her corruption. If Democrats nominate a moderate to center-left, they will have it in the bag. The only way Trump wins in 2020 is if Democrats run Hillary again (or somebody equally as corrupt) or if they nominate somebody who is far left and out of touch with the mainstream.
Keep in mind, a majority of Democratic and Independent voters who sometimes vote Democrat aren't the people you see out protesting and starting violence and are not the Hollywood liberal elite.
Yeah that's why there were supposed to lose the 2016 election. Liberals are still
Using the same raking points over and over
The GOP has become alt-right. I think Johnson took from Hillary more than from Trump. Most Trump voters weren't going to vote for somebody like Johnson who is pro-marijuana legalization, pro-gay, pro-choice, etc. A lot of people voted Johnson because they could not morally vote for Hillary considering her corruption. If Democrats nominate a moderate to center-left, they will have it in the bag. The only way Trump wins in 2020 is if Democrats run Hillary again (or somebody equally as corrupt) or if they nominate somebody who is far left and out of touch with the mainstream.
Keep in mind, a majority of Democratic and Independent voters who sometimes vote Democrat aren't the people you see out protesting and starting violence and are not the Hollywood liberal elite.
everybody knows libertarians are more close with Republicans than Democrats.......they want a limited government, lower taxes and little regulations..........so Johnson took more votes from Trump than Hillary......Progressives that didn't like Hillary had Stein to vote for.
Imagine if you have 2 former Democrat governors running independent in a platform close to the democrat party, you think they wouldn't take more votes away from the Democrat ticket or Republican ticket.
Johnson was a Republican governor of NM and his VP nominee was Republican governor from Mass........so they took more from Trump than from Hillary especially when Weld came short of endorsing Hillary.
Last edited by Hellion1999; 02-01-2017 at 11:55 PM..
most people in the libertarian party were Republicans not Democrats........name me 1 former Democrat governor, rep or senator that left the Democrat party to join the libertarian party or ticket?
Ron Paul, Johnson and Weld were all Republicans to name a few......so libertarians take more votes from the Republican ticket than Democrat ticket all the time.
Libertarians don't believe in the climate change hysteria.........name me 1 liberal democrat that agrees with that?
Libertarians want to get rid of the department of education: name me 1 Democrat agrees with that?
Libertarians believe that the private sector should take care of the environment and energy not the federal government........name me 1 Democrat that agrees with that?
Libertarians believe in the free markets for healthcare.......name me 1 democrat that agrees with that?
The Libertarian Party opposes all government intervention and regulation on wages, prices, rents, profits, production, and interest rates and advocate the repeal of all laws banning or restricting the advertising of prices, products, or services. ...............name me 1 liberal democrat that agrees with that?
The party believes that retirement planning is the responsibility of the individual, not the government. Libertarians would phase out the current government-sponsored Social Security system and transition to a private voluntary system.
again what Democrat liberal believes in that?..........so the libertarian ticket took more votes away from Trump than Hillary.
Johnson got:
2% in Florida
3.6% in Wisconsin
3.6% in Michigan
2.4% in Pennsylvania
4.1% in New Hampshire (Trump lost by 0.3%)
3.3% in Nevada (Trump lost by 2.4%)
4.1% in Arizona
3.2% in Texas
3.8% in Minnesota (Trump lost by 1.5% in that state)
Johnson got 4.5 million votes national......he took away more from Trump than Hillary and still Trump won 306 E.V..............if you look how Johnson/Weld campaigned they were running to prevent Trump from winning.
Last edited by Hellion1999; 02-02-2017 at 12:38 AM..
I know it's a little early, but here is how I predict the 2020 map will look. If this isn't it, i'll be back to this thread in four years to say I was wrong.
Good to know you find some psychological comfort in the far distance future...
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