Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
That "evidence" is fallacious at best. First of all, his approval rating is based on a national poll. Aside from polls being miserably inaccurate (obviously), his supporters are very happy with him. These supporters are those that could be a firewall against Democratic angst. Republicans vote in midterms....Democrats do not.
Second, there is zero evidence of "Russia collusion" with Donald Trump. None. If there were, it would have already leaked out. Democrats have already exhausted their ammunition by leaking what they do know, and none of it implicates Donald Trump colluding with Vladimir Putin.
Third, the blame for Obamacare repeal and replace falls squarely on the shoulders of Paul Ryan. Trump has not suffered from that Ryan-induced debacle. In fact, most Republicans I know are happy that we dodged a bullet with that sh*t show. In any case, Republicans know that not turning out the vote will result in Obamacare never being repealed and replaced. That's their incentive to vote. Republicans vote in midterms...Democrats do not.
Fourth, Kansas speaks for itself. Close? Who knows. If polls are accurate, then maybe. The GA race, however, requires a runoff unless a candidate tops 50 percent. Just because Ossoff is popular with Democrats does not mean he will pick off the Republican candidate in Newt Gingrich's district.
The Hill piece is puff piece to get Democrats energized. There is no evidence that any such change in majority is on the horizon.
I would certainly agree that the Kansas district will be very tough for the Democrats, this is primarily a blue collar rural district that Trump won by 30.
The Georgia one however, I think is certainly up for grabs. The district is a well educated white collar suburban district that swung HARD against Trump.
Status:
"everybody getting reported now.."
(set 29 days ago)
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,597 posts, read 16,568,312 times
Reputation: 6047
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bitey
No. The combination of incumbency, jerrymandering, and growing political polarization has created numerous districts that haven't changed parties in decades.
Until it changes parties...................... which is my point.
Every couple of years, we get a district that completely flips from one side to the other.
Again, I dont think Dems are going to win this race, or the one in Georgia, the last Democrat lost by 30 points.
2 of the other Kansas districts did just that. 1 went from 30 points in favor of the Democrat in 2008 to 30 points in favor of the Republican in 2016
On the Presidential level? Which diatrict was that?. I see the 3rd district, but the move wasn't that large, was on the Congressional level and heavily influenced by re-districting.
Status:
"everybody getting reported now.."
(set 29 days ago)
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,597 posts, read 16,568,312 times
Reputation: 6047
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255
On the Presidential level? Which diatrict was that?. I see the 3rd district, but the move wasn't that large, was on the Congressional level and heavily influenced by re-districting.
Since we are talking about congressional races, i assumed you meant Presidential years, not the actual Presidential race.
and yes, there was some redistricting as the city of Lawrence was removed from the 3rd district, but that didnt take affect until 2012
in 2008, the Dem won it 56-39, in 2010, the Dem lost in 58-38
Since we are talking about congressional races, i assumed you meant Presidential years, not the actual Presidential race.
and yes, there was some redistricting as the city of Lawrence was removed from the 3rd district, but that didnt take affect until 2012
in 2008, the Dem won it 56-39, in 2010, the Dem lost in 58-38
I was referring to the Presidential race results at the Congressional level.
While uncommon it isn't that unheard of for swings like that on the Congressional level. What is very unusual is for a Congressional seat to be won by a party in which the other party won by 30 points on the Presidential level. A district that far to one party or the other is exceptionally hard to pick off. As much as I would love to see it, a mostly rural Trump +30 district would be very unlikely to pick off. KS-3 would be the Kansas district the Dems could pick off if the situation arose.
GA-6 will be the one to watch. A Trump +30 district in rural Kansas was always an extreme longshot
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
