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The mid-year 2017 population estimates were released today, and they suggest a few changes in the electoral college allocations. Of course we have a few more years to go until the 2020 census takes place, but these estimates can give a good idea of which states are on track to gain or lose electoral votes.
Gains:
Colorado +1 (7->8)
Florida +1 (27->28)
North Carolina +1 (13->14)
Oregon +1 (5->6)
Texas +2 (36->38)
Losses:
Illinois -1 (18->17)
Michigan -1 (14->13)
Minnesota -1 (8->7)
New York -1 (27->26)
Pennsylvania -1 (18->17)
West Virginia -1 (3->2)
For the gains, there is 1 in a solid blue state (OR), 1 in light blue (CO), 1 in purple (FL), 1 in light red (NC), and 2 in solid red (TX). For the losses, there is 2 in solid blue (IL/NY), 1 in light blue (MN), 2 in purple (MI/PA), and 1 in solid red (WV).
This suggests an overall net gain of 1-2 electoral college votes for Republicans - not exactly a huge change. While the states can shift politically I think it's pretty clear for now that Texas' strong growth in particular will work to the benefit of Republicans in presidential races. And no, red states are not always faster growing than blue states; Oregon vs. West Virginia being a key example.
The next state on track to lose a seat is Rhode Island (solid blue), followed by Alabama (solid red). The next couple potential gains are for Montana (solid red) and Arizona (light red).
The growth in Florida is likely from Puerto Rico which may not benefit Republicans. The growth in Texas is mostly in the cities which may or may not benefit Republicans. I know in my state of Washington, the second largest contributor to our growth is (unhappily) from Texas. The generic ticket has Democrats over Republicans by double digits.
The growth in Florida is likely from Puerto Rico which may not benefit Republicans. The growth in Texas is mostly in the cities which may or may not benefit Republicans. I know in my state of Washington, the second largest contributor to our growth is (unhappily) from Texas. The generic ticket has Democrats over Republicans by double digits.
Last I checked (bear in mind this was over a month ago) - 130,000 Puerto Ricans had come to Florida since Hurricane Maria hit. Trump won by approximately 113,000 in Florida, i believe.
No guarantee they'll all vote, or even that they'd all vote blue, but it's an interesting wrinkle.
Last I checked (bear in mind this was over a month ago) - 130,000 Puerto Ricans had come to Florida since Hurricane Maria hit. Trump won by approximately 113,000 in Florida, i believe.
No guarantee they'll all vote, or even that they'd all vote blue, but it's an interesting wrinkle.
It says here over 200K have moved to Florida. I don't know how it will turn out either but we'll see.
Over 200,000 Puerto Ricans have arrived in Florida since Hurricane Maria
The bottom line on the Sunbelt increase in electoral votes.
1. Probably a gain of a few electoral votes in Republican states in presidential races, at least in the short term.
2. Not likely an increase in Republican congressmen because most of the pop increase is in Democratic leaning areas or groups and there’s a limit on the amount of gerrymandering of minority districts you could get away without without triggering court challenges.
Let's assume national average voter turnout (60%) for Puerto Ricans that come over here: That's 120,000.
While Puerto Ricans on average are more socially conservative than Democrats, given the federal response in PR and Trump's comments in the weeks during and subsequent to the disaster, let's say they go 70/30 for the Democrats. That's 84,000 votes.
Subtract the remaining 36,000 votes that went red, and that's potentially a 48,000 net gain for Democrats.
So, perhaps not enough to win, but it's still significant. And who knows how a new candidate for the Democrats might change things?
Shoot where I live in Washington State, the place has became infested with Mexicans, making it even more liberal. Everywhere I go they are in droves and can't even speak English. Unfortunately, Washington State votes Democrat regardless. So, being a Republican, my vote doesn't really count here, thanks to the liberals in Seattle. When I lived in Tennessee, my vote was always counted, cause it is overwhelmingly Republican.
Shoot where I live in Washington State, the place has became infested with Mexicans, making it even more liberal. Everywhere I go they are in droves and can't even speak English. Unfortunately, Washington State votes Democrat regardless. So, being a Republican, my vote doesn't really count here, thanks to the liberals in Seattle. When I lived in Tennessee, my vote was always counted, cause it is overwhelmingly Republican.
One can always go back home to Tennessee or any other red state. Washington has been blue for 40 years so it shouldn't have been a surprise.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boss1234
Keep in mind, that even with The Latino Voters, Trump still won the state of Florida in the last election.
Trump won by 100K votes and 200K Puerto Ricans have left Puerto Rico to move to Florida. They paid the price for Trump's treatment of Puerto Rico. There are no guarantees but it certainly may have an impact in future elections.
Shoot where I live in Washington State, the place has became infested with Mexicans, making it even more liberal. Everywhere I go they are in droves and can't even speak English. Unfortunately, Washington State votes Democrat regardless. So, being a Republican, my vote doesn't really count here, thanks to the liberals in Seattle. When I lived in Tennessee, my vote was always counted, cause it is overwhelmingly Republican.
Well, that was a hate-filled rant! If you don’t like being around so many Democrats and Mexicans, maybe you should move back to Tennessee. Why should Seattle change just to make you happy? BTW, I’ve been to Seattle and the Hispanic population is small compared to Southern California.
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