Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
The first of potential independent candidates, Howard Schultz, may throw his hat in the ring. Although he is not well known to the majority of Americans, his $3.3 billion net worth means he can afford plenty of air time.
Being a former Democrat and a citizen of Washington State, he is considered a greater threat to Democrats than Republicans. Ross Perot did not take any EC votes, but he did a lot of damage to H.W. Bush in 1992 and most people assume he threw the election to Bill Clinton.
In 2000 in Florida Bush's 2,912,790 votes narrowly beat Al Gore's 2,912,253 votes by less than 650, so Ralph Nader who earned 97,488 votes for the Green party was seen as a spoiler.
In 1968 George Wallace won 5 states and took 46 electoral college votes. Nixon still had a clear majority of EC votes (301) even though he ended up beat Hubert Humphrey by less than 1%.
If 2020 ends up with no candidate winning 270 electoral college votes because a third party candidate takes a crucial state, then the "contingent election" is held in the House of Representatives with each state getting a single vote regardless of population size. If the state cannot agree on a candidate, then their vote doesn't count.
For the last several decades it was felt that a " contingent election " would go to the Republican candidate since they had majority delegations in many of the small states. But after 2018 the Republicans hold a clear majority in only 26 states. Another variable is the contingent election would be decided by the newly elected congress in 2020, and not the lame duck congress of 2018.
Do you think independent candidates bring much needed new ideas to a race, or are they just egotistical spoilers?
States with majority Republican delegations in 2018.
Alabama
Alaska
Arkansas
Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Indiana
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Ohio
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
To be clear , state delegation has to do with congressional US house delegation, not state house .
So New Hampshire which you listed as majority Republican is actually 2-0 Democratic .
Given how oppositional and divided both parties are, I think if an independent was to gather about 38% of the vote, especially ins some critical swing states, it might be enough to take the election. if the election didn't go to the House.
If it was to go to the House, the runner-up from one of the 2 parties would take it.
I can't see any way an independent can overcome the Houses two parties, so the popular vote would have to be a very substantial win. Since most voters will vote party first, an independent has an almost insurmountable disadvantage.
To be clear , state delegation has to do with congressional US house delegation, not state house .
So New Hampshire which you listed as majority Republican is actually 2-0 Democratic .
That was just a mistake. I meant to say North Dakota.
So Republicans have the majority US congressional delegate in 26 states. That's a relatively small majority because I don't think that DC can vote in a contingent election. The voting is not done by the lame duck congress anyway, so that total could change.
State Republican - Democrat (if any)
Texas 23 13
Ohio 12 4
North Carolina 9 3
Alabama 6 1
Indiana 7 2
Tennessee 7 2
Arkansas 4
Georgia 9 5
Kentucky 5 1
Louisiana 5 1
Missouri 6 2
Nebraska 3
Oklahoma 4 1
South Carolina 5 2
West Virginia 3
Idaho 2
Kansas 3 1
Mississippi 3 1
Utah 3 1
Wisconsin 5 3
Florida 14 13 (highest probability of switching to Democrat majority representation)
Alaska 1
Montana 1
North Dakota 1
South Dakota 1
Wyoming 1
Quote:
Originally Posted by banjomike
Given how oppositional and divided both parties are, I think if an independent was to gather about 38% of the vote, especially ins some critical swing states, it might be enough to take the election.
That would be unprecedented in American history. Teddy Roosevelt only got 27.4% of the popular vote as an independent in 1912 and he was formerly President from 1901-1909.
I doubt that if DJT and the Democratic candidate were being investigated for a murder that an independent could gather 38% of the popular vote.
Last edited by PacoMartin; 02-02-2019 at 10:08 AM..
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
