Latest 2020 Democratic Presidential primary polls (leader, election, elect, Senate)

[Cruzincat]

The most important poll will be the one taken on Super Tuesday in the Primaries. Guess what state has moved their primary to Super Tuesday. California. Does anyone believe Harris will drop out before Super Tuesday? I think at this point it is Harris's nomination to lose.

[NW Crow]

She is running in a tight 3 way race there with Biden and Sanders according to the last poll I saw with all 3 around 20% each.

[NW Crow]

Change in leader support levels in Morning Consult national poll vs same from a week ago: Biden up by 6 percentage points, Sanders down 2, Buttigieg and Harris down 1 each, Warren up 2.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...lls/elections/


The Morning Consult national poll is based over 15,000 participants online.



In the national polls I've seen, Buttigieg broke into double digit support in two polls conducted around April 11-15 and has not been in double digits in any national polls I've seen since.


IN a NH poll just released he is in a tie for 2nd / 3rd with Sanders at 12% with Biden at 20%.



Haven't seen any new polls in Iowa recently.


Undecideds are substantial in some polls.


In two most recent national polls, Biden has 15-24 point leads over Sanders; or stated differently, he has support levels that are 60-150% higher. If things stayed this way, Biden would get enough delegates to win on first ballot. I do expect significant change though from this moment.




Gabbard at 2% in CNN national poll. She has been there before. Will she move beyond it?


Booker has been generally moving down into a lower and lower 7th place. Somebody else could grab 7th place soon, fwiw.

[dsjj251]

Warren has been doing slightly better in polling , I saw an analysis a couple of weeks ago that talked about interest in Iowa and surrounding states , Warren was 4th in buzz(internet searches, crowd size, fundraising in Iowa and surrounding states, yard signs, campaign hiring) , behind the 3 B's (Biden, Bernie, Buttigieg). Polling wasnt reflecting that, but is now starting to.

[NW Crow]

Quinnipiac poll released late Tuesday and done April 26-29 has Biden with a 3 to 1 lead over WARREN then Sanders and Buttigieg close. At this moment it looks more like a 4 person race than before.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/


That is a different look from other recent polls.


It is the second recent national poll with Sanders well below 20%. It is the first national poll with Buttigieg over 10%. It is the first poll in awhile with Warren over 10%. She tripled her level of support over the last Quinnipiac poll at the end of March which pretty much represented her low point.



She gets 2nd place to Biden (?) for "best ideas". Buttigieg, with his strategy, is a distant 4th.



She is tied for 3rd with Sanders for support from whites (Buttigieg 2nd) and in 2nd for support from non-whites.



Sanders is 4th with non-whites, Buttigieg tied for 6th.



Sanders 5th among women, Buttigieg 4th.



Warren #1 amongst the self-described very liberal, Biden somehow 2nd, Sanders down to 3rd, Harris 4th, Buttigieg 5th. For folks "somewhat liberal" Biden has a huge, followed by Buttigieg, then Warren and Sanders. Moderates & conservatives are 5-1 for Biden over Warren and Buttigieg in tie for 2nd.



Men support Biden big then Sanders, then Warren and Buttigieg tied.


Under 50 years old votes go for Biden by about 50% over Sanders, then Buttigieg. Over 50 for Biden by 350% over Warren then no one else close to 10%.

Biden with more than 4-1 lead among those with income under $50k over Sanders. No one else has 10%. Among those over $100k it is Biden 2-1 over Buttigieg. Then Warren and Sanders.


O'Rourke does not have 10% from any of these demographic groups but at least 5% from most of them.


Harris has over 10% support from women, very liberals, under 50s an those with middle incomes.


Gabbard has 1% of the very liberal vote and nowhere else. Moulton does not have 1% from any group. Inslee and Yang are at 1% overall. Booker is at 2%, which is 7th best; but now more leader of the bottom tier. Klobuchar at 1%. Gillibrand at 0%.


Yang does best with men, moderate /conservatives / non-whites and those with lower incomes.




It is may not be as simple as this; but Biden's and Warren's increased support appearance to have come almost entirely out of Sanders and O'Rourke.




Buttigieg has 6 times the support with Democratic "leaners" than with those who identify as Democrats. Biden still leads with leaners, Sanders third.




"best chance to beat Trump"? Biden by 450% over Sanders, with no one else over 4%.




Other data:

• Voters support 60 - 34 percent an annual 2 percent tax on any individual wealth over $50 million;
• 52 percent of voters oppose making all public colleges in the U.S. free, with 45 percent in support;
• Voters oppose 65 - 31 percent allowing prison inmates to vote.

Just one poll, but with more breakout than others.

[NW Crow]

Er, it was 3rd national poll with Buttigieg over 10%. I looked at a different list earlier. There were 7 below 10% in between the first 2 and the third.


I guess Warren ad a few 10%s in mid-April too, not so long ago.


Probably shouldn't make too much of a few percent point changes unless sustained.

[dsjj251]

Originally Posted by NW Crow

Er, it was 3rd national poll with Buttigieg over 10%. I looked at a different list earlier. There were 7 below 10% in between the first 2 and the third.


I guess Warren ad a few 10%s in mid-April too, not so long ago.


Probably shouldn't make too much of a few percent point changes unless sustained.

a few percentage points matters nationally, especially when he started out at 0.

he essentially went from getting 50,000 votes to 4 million.

[NW Crow]

Harvard / Harris Poll released Saturday has Biden's lead widening further.


Buttigieg plummeting to 2%. I dunno how much due to the fake internet attack, meeting with Al Sharpton, Biden entry or other things.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...lls/elections/
at the very top

Will look into the detail. That recent CNN poll took grief for being biased toward over 50s. This one doesn't have that issue, at least, and Biden is further ahead here than in the CNN poll.



Update: it looks like a pretty scientifically balanced poll by at least age & state. Probably even further to political philosophy. The 300 page report (covers way more than primary) is thick and in tiny print.

[NW Crow]

The bump up that Warren got in another recent poll is not present in this Harvard-Harris poll. Compared to the last H-H poll she had no movement at all.


Only things that are clear at this time is Biden has way more poll support than anybody else and Sanders is a distant second but usually still second.

[mrpeatie]

I think Warren will continue to gain since she is hammering away with actual proposals and tends to back up her ideas well. Bernie is more likeable but after four years he still lacks a lot of substance. The two of them really do seem to be going after the same piece of the pie - in 2016 Bernie had that whole lane to himself as well as all the anti-Hillary votes.


I think Buttigieg will fade- he is basically Miss Congeniality. Everyone likes him and people are thrilled his campaign has been well received but he is not who they want to be in the final round of competition.


I think we need to wait until Iowa to see who the top 4 are- those are the folks who will get the attention and consideration in the states that follow. I think Klobuchar and Harris are the two who can pick up the slack if one of the current top four falter- Klobuchar would be the candidate most in line with Iowa voters (and possibly the more pragmatic voters in NH.) Harris more in line with the SC primary voters. But both seem to be in the lower echelons of candidates at the moment.