Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
All polls are accurate. Some polls don't simply count because of who they talk to.
They cannot be 100% accurate. A)you are actually depending on someone being honest and given the results of 2016 I actually have to wonder if there wasn't a lot of Democrats lying and proclaiming to be Republicans voting for Clinton.
This brings us to problem B), polls are weighted. If you poll 1000 people, 600 respondents might be D's, the other 400 are R's and numerous other variables all need to be accounted for you. This is where the accuracy can go out the window. Is your 600 D's and 400 R's an accurate representation of that demographic? e.g are average Democrats more likely to answer the poll and the phone gets hung by average R?
Did you miss the midterms? Republicans got shut out in Michigan.
It's quite normal for the opposing party to gain seats in the mid terms, the real test is if they can hold onto the House in 2020 and the the way they are going that's not looking very good.
This what is going to happen IMO. As the Democratic candidates get pared down the support for those canidates is going to shift to Sanders or some other candidate other than Biden. Biden's lead will evaporate and he will not get the nomination. Sanders or one these other crack pots will get the nomination. Trump wins....
I agree that it is way too early to rely on polls.
However, I would argue that I do not see where President Trump has expanded his base.
Recall, he won the electoral college vote, mainly due to 3 'rust belt' states that Clinton essentially neglected, and by a total of 77,000 votes. That is razor thin. I will not speak of the Russian interference, documented by the Mueller Report, which indicated that, perhaps, some voters were influenced by their efforts (for it is hard to quantify).
I think we can agree that Mr. Trump will essentially keep his 'uneducated base'. Think Dunning-Kruger.
What of women? Doubtful.
What of black Americans? Even more doubtful.
What of Veterans? All talk, no improvement.
Youth? College Educated? From what I have read, he has steadily lost support.
Farmers? Some are staying with him, but others have not.
Thankfully, ours is a robust economy. Yet, there are signs of a recession. People are also realizing that the Tax Reform Act did not really benefit them, but certainly benefited the 'wealthy'. Some will realize that the future is not that bright, for anyone lower than middle class. The various trade tariffs (today India imposed new tariffs) will start to bite.
Finally, some Trump supporters from 2016 are simply realizing that Mr. Trump is a habitual liar. Even now, I hope, some are wondering "If President Trump lies about little things, can I believe him about Iran?"
.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
