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College educated people demonize non college educated people and vice versa. Thats not a Democratic thing or a Republican thing.
bull. I can't count the number of times the democrats have called republican voters uneducated by political leaders and MSM press. your statement is just not true. during the 2016 election results on TV, the commentators kept emphasizing this 'fact'.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by texan2yankee
bull. I can't count the number of times the democrats have called republican voters uneducated by political leaders and MSM press. your statement is just not true. during the 2016 election results on TV, the commentators kept emphasizing this 'fact'.
You have blinders on, you think it isnt true because you think when someone criticizes a "liberal elite" they deserve it . Or maybe its because you and others like you make sure to define academia in general as liberal, therefore the description is political and not educational.
Either way, it happens and you are pretending to be blind to it. In the very post you are quoting, I gave an example of this, where people openly laughed at the Republican candidate for doing it, because he was a college educated man himself.
Not sure why the democrats keep demonizing non-college graduate voters. there are more of them than the college educated voters. last I looked it was 3:1.
Your numbers are a little off.
Attached is a report from Pew Research based upon validated 2016 returns.
Total voters: Non-college graduates = 63%; college grads 37%
So in 2016, it was a little less than 2:1, rather than 3:1.
But within white voters, it was non-college voters = 44% and college grads= 30%
White college grads and minorities = 56% of total votes cast, and the percentage of votes cast by non-college white voters drops like clockwork every 4 years by 1% or 2% just due to death and demographic displacement. In a nutshell, that illustrates why the national popular vote has become a lost cause for the Republican Party.
Not sure why the democrats keep demonizing non-college graduate voters. there are more of them than the college educated voters. last I looked it was 3:1.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat
Your numbers are a little off.
Attached is a report from Pew Research based upon validated 2016 returns.
Total voters: Non-college graduates = 63%; college grads 37%
So in 2016, it was a little less than 2:1, rather than 3:1.
But within white voters, it was non-college voters = 44% and college grads= 30%
White college grads and minorities = 56% of total votes cast, and the percentage of votes cast by non-college white voters drops like clockwork every 4 years by 1% or 2% just due to death and demographic displacement. In a nutshell, that illustrates why the national popular vote has become a lost cause for the Republican Party.
In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat or an independent?
2019 May 1-12
republicans 30%
independents 38%
democrats 31 %
No, what was off was you saying that non-college voters outnumber college voters by 3:1.
It was misleading in that it included minority non-college which has a totally different voting pattern. In 2016, a year with a larger than usual white non-college vote, the actual ratio was a little less than 2:1.
If all non-college voters voted the same way, they could dominate an election, but they don’t and there is no indication that they are ready to start now. Non-college whites accounted for 44% of all votes cast in 2016. College whites accounted for 30%. Minority voting fell in 2016 to 26% of the total, despite increasing their share of registered voters. The white non-college voting share of registered voters is continuing to drop by a couple of points with every 4 year cycle, just as it has for over 20 years. That’s just reflective of the fact that every succeeding American generation is more diverse than the one that preceded it.
So unless the GOP can increase its share of minority non-college, or eliminate the gap in its support between white college grads and white non-college, after a while the numbers just don’t work. The GOP has won the national popular vote in 1 Presidential Election for the past 20 years. That’s not due to election fraud. It’s due to the overall demographic change within the country as a whole.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 06-16-2019 at 01:28 PM..
So unless the GOP can increase its share of minority non-college, or eliminate the gap in its support between white college grads and white non-college, after a while the numbers just don’t work.
…..or republican presidential candidates can continue to win the electoral college, which is how the race is won by the rules.
…..or republican presidential candidates can continue to win the electoral college, which is how the race is won by the rules.
the popular vote is irrelevant, isn't it?
Over the long term, it’s more likely a harbinger of things to come.
Parties have to appeal to the country as it is now, and what it is becoming, instead of what it was 50 years ago.
We’ve only had 4 elections in our history that were won by a candidate who lost the popular vote. If Trump is re-elected in 2020 while losing the popular vote, he will be the first President elected and re-elected while never willing the national popular vote.. The demographics are changing in every state, and it’s not helpful to the GOP anywhere. The only thing that varies is the rate of change. Unless something dramatic happens that changes the dynamic, it’s eventually akin to the Romans trying to hold back the Barbarians.
Why do you think the GOP establishment floated a “pathway to citizenship” idea? It wasn’t out of compassion. It was because of long term political necessity.
That’s why if you look at computer simulations, the further out you look, the worse Republican prospects become. It’s not Democratic slanted math. It’s just math.
In order to win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote, you really need to thread a needle. In 2000, it came down to a couple of thousand votes in Florida as the country was deeply split. In 2016, the popular vote had an even clearer winner but the winner was able to eek out narrow wins in three very similar Rust Belt states. I do not think there is a Republican politician or strategist alive who considers that a likely path in multiple elections. It was also dependent on non-college educated whites voting in higher numbers while other groups voted in lower numbers.
Where this really comes into play is that a lot of Midwestern and Border/Southern states will move more Republican. But it becomes very tricky in states like North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona where the population growth is more educated and more non-white than existing residents. Texas is on that same path only it starts from much stronger R advantage. So Republicans are gaining a virtual lock on a large number of smaller and mid-sized states and at greater risk in a number of largish states. Texas is really the only large state you can consider an R lock. Ohio might prove to be as well but the issue there is it is on the cusp of population decline. After the 2020 census we could very well see Oh with 17 EVs and North Carolina with 16. Georgia currently stands at 16 and Arizona at 11.
It is entirely possible (although I cannot imagine probable) that the 2020 Dem could lose Pa, Wi and Mi but replace them with Ga, Az and NC for an Electoral College Victory. As unlikely as that is in 2020 demographically it becomes a much stronger possibility in 2024 and especially 2028.
Of course the obvious question is if this trend is long term or a short term response to Trump. When I was younger, Republicans were always quick to point out that they were the party of the more educated. Without Trump do they return to the R fold?
In order to win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote, you really need to thread a needle. In 2000, it came down to a couple of thousand votes in Florida as the country was deeply split. In 2016, the popular vote had an even clearer winner but the winner was able to eek out narrow wins in three very similar Rust Belt states. I do not think there is a Republican politician or strategist alive who considers that a likely path in multiple elections. It was also dependent on non-college educated whites voting in higher numbers while other groups voted in lower numbers.
Where this really comes into play is that a lot of Midwestern and Border/Southern states will move more Republican. But it becomes very tricky in states like North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona where the population growth is more educated and more non-white than existing residents. Texas is on that same path only it starts from much stronger R advantage. So Republicans are gaining a virtual lock on a large number of smaller and mid-sized states and at greater risk in a number of largish states. Texas is really the only large state you can consider an R lock. Ohio might prove to be as well but the issue there is it is on the cusp of population decline. After the 2020 census we could very well see Oh with 17 EVs and North Carolina with 16. Georgia currently stands at 16 and Arizona at 11.
It is entirely possible (although I cannot imagine probable) that the 2020 Dem could lose Pa, Wi and Mi but replace them with Ga, Az and NC for an Electoral College Victory. As unlikely as that is in 2020 demographically it becomes a much stronger possibility in 2024 and especially 2028.
Of course the obvious question is if this trend is long term or a short term response to Trump. When I was younger, Republicans were always quick to point out that they were the party of the more educated. Without Trump do they return to the R fold?
The GOP began losing white college grad voters, particularly women, long before Trump emerged. I can’t find it, but I remember seeing a breakdown of millennial voters by educational level and by Christian Evangelical. The millennials that were Christian Evangelicals still voted in high numbers for Republicans, whether they were college grads or not. The ones that were not Christian Evangelical, which was most of the millennials voted overwhelmingly Democratic.
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