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Old 07-19-2019, 05:02 PM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,637 posts, read 16,659,798 times
Reputation: 6079

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Quote:
Originally Posted by prospectheightsresident View Post
Traditionally, but we've also haven't had a president like Donald Trump before. He does well among some conservative/Republican circles, but hasn't done well within other circles.

Traditionally, though, the percentage of separation (whether its 5% or 8% of voters over the last couple of cycles . . . and it was just over 5% in 2008, too at the presidential level and Hillary only got 33,000 more votes in 2016 than Obama got in 2008, while Trump got about 40,000 more votes in 2016 than McCain got in 2008) hasn't been very, very high going back the last few elections in the state at the presidential level. 5% may not seem like a lot, but that percentage represents people who aren't going to move, the Dems have a natural ceiling in Georgia that is lower than the GOP's. Of course, if voters that would traditionally back a certain candidate/party flip or stay home due to their distaste of a candidate/party, it would only take a relatively small number of them (as you point out) to flip or stay home to make a difference.

My take is that the president's relative unpopularity in Georgia is moving some traditionally conservative voters (white suburban women in the Atlanta area didn't suddenly become left wing and transplants don't account for the shift we are seeing) into either staying home or voting for the Dem candidate. But barring some unforeseen disaster, I expect Trump to win the state by a similar margin that he won the state by in 2016. We'll see, though.
Atlanta metro has about 90,000 net migrants each year, so actually they could account for the growth.
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Old 07-19-2019, 05:43 PM
 
34,218 posts, read 17,304,429 times
Reputation: 17292
OP, Trump will win, and actually run vs nominee plus the Moonbat quartet, which includes both AOC & Omar.
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Old 07-19-2019, 06:03 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,239 posts, read 19,558,450 times
Reputation: 5365
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsjj251 View Post
Atlanta metro has about 90,000 net migrants each year, so actually they could account for the growth.
Likely a combination of the two. Transplants are certainly part of it, but there has been a pretty strong shift among educated middle to upper middle class suburban voters away from the GOP. The shift pre-dates Trump, but he accelerated it.
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Old 07-20-2019, 07:57 AM
 
Location: Home, Home on the Front Range
25,840 posts, read 20,779,114 times
Reputation: 14833
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
That's a big negative. Did you miss the part where 91% of the USA disapproves of her. Millions? Haha. Try hundreds.



Young people are worried about jobs, illegal immigration, providing for their kids, staying out of war, dealing with islamic terrorism. They aren't going to Omar for that.
That’s rich.
You doubt every poll posted on this board but we’re supposed to believe it when you cite one?
Ah, no.


And yes, young voters have just as many concerns as their elders.

I seriously doubt that they are convinced that the way to address them is to embrace the hate personified by the Trump administration.

Seeing the president attack someone who represents what they were raised to believe this country is about - opportunity for all - is not going to generate positive feelings.


But time will tell, won’t it?
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Old 07-20-2019, 08:07 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,239 posts, read 19,558,450 times
Reputation: 5365
Quote:
Originally Posted by TigerLily24 View Post
That’s rich.
You doubt every poll posted on this board but we’re supposed to believe it when you cite one?
Ah, no.


And yes, young voters have just as many concerns as their elders.

I seriously doubt that they are convinced that the way to address them is to embrace the hate personified by the Trump administration.

Seeing the president attack someone who represents what they were raised to believe this country is about - opportunity for all - is not going to generate positive feelings.


But time will tell, won’t it?

Well Waldo lied, the poll was only of white non college grads. Waldo also lied about the disapproval number as none was given in his link. Counted never heard of and no opinion as disapproval in the lying land of Waldo.
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Old 07-20-2019, 05:11 PM
 
52,430 posts, read 26,774,000 times
Reputation: 21097
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsjj251 View Post
Atlanta metro has about 90,000 net migrants each year, so actually they could account for the growth.
You get that the Atlanta CSA covers 10,000 square miles. Much of that growth is voting Republican.
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Old 07-20-2019, 05:14 PM
 
52,430 posts, read 26,774,000 times
Reputation: 21097
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
Well Waldo lied, the poll was only of white non college grads. Waldo also lied about the disapproval number as none was given in his link. Counted never heard of and no opinion as disapproval in the lying land of Waldo.
Calling me a liar only means you don't have an argument.

I've been clear about that poll. It was an internal poll conducted by the Democrat party AIMED at the "swing voter". The very voters they need to win back the Midwest and maybe some of the former Obama battleground states. Dismiss it at your own risk.

But keep calling me a liar. I'll laugh at you in 2020, just like I did in 2016 when Trump wins again.
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Old 07-20-2019, 09:20 PM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,637 posts, read 16,659,798 times
Reputation: 6079
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
You get that the Atlanta CSA covers 10,000 square miles.
I never said anything about the CSA.

I said Atlanta Metro, which is significantly smaller. the C in CSA means "combined", LOL



Quote:
Much of that growth is voting Republican.
No, they arent. I could sit here and pretend and play coy and say, well thats possible, but it would mean for every person who moved there and voted Republican, a long time residents started voting for Democrats, but it just isnt true.

New Residents and Younger people are clearly voting in favor of Democrats.


Fulton County alone was +40,000 in favor of Dems from 2012 to 2016
Dekalb was +13,000
Gwinnett +34,000
Cobb + 27,000


Mean while, Trump got.

Fulton -20,000
Dekalb -13,000
Gwinnett -13,000
Cobb -19,000

DO you really want to play this game ???
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Old 07-20-2019, 09:23 PM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,637 posts, read 16,659,798 times
Reputation: 6079
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
Calling me a liar only means you don't have an argument.

I've been clear about that poll. It was an internal poll conducted by the Democrat party AIMED at the "swing voter". The very voters they need to win back the Midwest and maybe some of the former Obama battleground states. Dismiss it at your own risk.

But keep calling me a liar. I'll laugh at you in 2020, just like I did in 2016 when Trump wins again.
But you did lie. You arent even disputing it, which you usually would do if you felt you didnt. Its odd, but it is something I have always noticed about you.

When you know you are wrong, you always deflect or say "you have no argument" LOL

Also, pretty sure your argument doesnt work seeing as we just had an election and Dems won with those numbers.
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Old 07-20-2019, 10:11 PM
 
34,218 posts, read 17,304,429 times
Reputation: 17292
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
Calling me a liar only means you don't have an argument.

I've been clear about that poll. It was an internal poll conducted by the Democrat party AIMED at the "swing voter". The very voters they need to win back the Midwest and maybe some of the former Obama battleground states. Dismiss it at your own risk.

But keep calling me a liar. I'll laugh at you in 2020, just like I did in 2016 when Trump wins again.

I'll laugh at the TDS crowd also election Night 2020, just as I did in 2016.
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