Texas is tied (poll, radical, Americans, March)

[dspguy]

Texas got to 4M voters going for a Democratic candidate in the 2018 Senate Midterm. Considering that O'Rourke only had to run in one state and not 50 and that there was a huge amount of money put into one election, 4M might be their ceiling right now. They likely won't win over 300k Republican-candidate voters in 2020 to flip that state.

That Cruz/O'Rourke election was close (52-48) partially because Trump wasn't on the ticket. Republican turnout would likely have been higher. Probably 4.5M to 4M. That's about 53 to 47. Will Biden get the turnout O'Rourke did? Who knows. But, signs are pointing to Texas becoming a battleground state sometime this decade.

[Ant131531]

Texas is going to go blue simply because it's becoming less and less white by the year. Same with GA. Just wait until white baby boomers really begin to die off over the next 15 years. The white share of the country will really begin to plummet. Really the entire demographic shift of the country means the GOP will have to start pandering to Latinos pretty soon. Probably 2028, 2032 at the latest.

I think people are going to be shocked at the rapid demographic and political changes over the next two decades because the Baby boomers are such a massive population. This will be a totally different country by 2045. It's very possible a variant of socialism could be in full swing by then. Someone like Bernie Sanders is about 20 years too early.

[dsjj251]

Originally Posted by dspguy

That's a great point.

Looking at Texas from a two party standpoint:

Roughly 4.5M voters went for Republican candidates in 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2016.
But Democrat vote totals look like this:
2004: 2.8M
2008: 3.5M
2012: 3.3M
2016: 3.9M

Over the last 16 years, Republican votes have grown by 100,000. Democratic votes have grown 1.1M. The state is moving left. It isn't a blue state. And likely won't be in 2020.

Exactly, thats the big difference between these states

Both Dems and Republicans lost votes there, where as in Texas, Dems are gaining and republicans holding steady.

Dems could win their voters back in Wisconsin, some stayed home and some voted 3rd party. Jill Stein gained 24,000 votes from 2012 to 2016, enough to have put the Dem over Trump. Gary Johnson gained 86,000 voters.

Trump banking on winning Wisconsin isnt too smart especially when you know Biden's team will have him camped out there.

I also dont see the Biden camp wasting money in states like Tennessee and Arkansas, as well as states like Indiana.

[Ant131531]

Originally Posted by dsjj251

Exactly, thats the big difference between these states

Both Dems and Republicans lost votes there, where as in Texas, Dems are gaining and republicans holding steady.

Dems could win their voters back in Wisconsin, some stayed home and some voted 3rd party. Jill Stein gained 24,000 votes from 2012 to 2016, enough to have put the Dem over Trump. Gary Johnson gained 86,000 voters.

Trump banking on winning Wisconsin isnt too smart especially when you know Biden's team will have him camped out there.

I also dont see the Biden camp wasting money in states like Tennessee and Arkansas, as well as states like Indiana.

Biden camp will play it safe. They're not gonna try to pull a Hillary and assume they have certain states won and try to go for big reaches like Texas or Indiana or even Ohio these days. Honestly I don't even think they should put much effort into AZ despite favorable polling.

[dsjj251]

Originally Posted by Ant131531

Biden camp will play it safe. They're not gonna try to pull a Hillary and assume they have certain states won and try to go for big reaches like Texas or Indiana or even Ohio these days. Honestly I don't even think they should put much effort into AZ despite favorable polling.

I disagree on Arizona, its is a bit like Virginia or maybe North Carolina. The votes have been there for a while, Dems have proven they can win state wide without being republican-lite.

Ohio is the real problem , not contesting it could free up Trump to contest other states. Iowa being the key one that seems like it could swing more because of bad moves by the governor and senator on multiple issues.

Dems are going to put money in Texas because there are at least 3 US house seats held by Republicans in play, and 2 Dems defending.

I doubt dems will go all in, Texas is too expensive.

[mrpeatie]

Count on Biden and surrogates putting in time $ in Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia among the reach swing states. Those all have Senate seats Dems are hoping to grab. The inverse is also true- if the Senate campaigns put a larger effort into turning out votes it will help Biden as well.

The two places Dems need to start putting in a continued effort are Texas and Hispanic voting groups in Florida. Those states are too large and growing too much to have a path to the White House in the near future without one or the other. They also need to have a presence there now to be able to have any success in 2022 and 2024 Senate races.

[dspguy]

Clinton made zero stops in Texas after the convention. I don't really blame her either. However, given how the Democratic vote has grown in Texas, Biden should make at least 1 stop in Texas for the sake of the party. If they can shrink that 500k deficit a little more this round, it could be in play in a future election.

[xboxmas]

Originally Posted by Ant131531

Texas is going to go blue simply because it's becoming less and less white by the year. Same with GA. Just wait until white baby boomers really begin to die off over the next 15 years. The white share of the country will really begin to plummet. Really the entire demographic shift of the country means the GOP will have to start pandering to Latinos pretty soon. Probably 2028, 2032 at the latest.

I think people are going to be shocked at the rapid demographic and political changes over the next two decades because the Baby boomers are such a massive population. This will be a totally different country by 2045. It's very possible a variant of socialism could be in full swing by then. Someone like Bernie Sanders is about 20 years too early.

You guys have been dreaming about Georgia forever. Where does that even come from? It hasn't happened yet.

[xboxmas]

Originally Posted by dsjj251

The problem with your argument is that the GOP didnt win new voters or flip old ones. Trump won Wisconsin with less voters than Romney.

Originally Posted by dspguy

That's a great point.

Looking at Texas from a two party standpoint:

Roughly 4.5M voters went for Republican candidates in 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2016.
But Democrat vote totals look like this:
2004: 2.8M
2008: 3.5M
2012: 3.3M
2016: 3.9M

Over the last 16 years, Republican votes have grown by 100,000. Democratic votes have grown 1.1M. The state is moving left. It isn't a blue state. And likely won't be in 2020.

Lol you are delusional. I can easily show you other states.

Look how much they have lost Pennsylvania- its even worse for them since they are actually losing Democratic voters:

D:
2008: 3.3 Million
2012: 3.0 Million
2016: 2.9 Million
R:
2008: 2.7 Million
2012: 2.7 Million
2016: 3.0 Million

R net gain: 300,000, D loss: 400,000.

Also, its looking better for Republicans in Florida. By your logic, its turning red.

D:
2008: 4.3M
2012: 4.2M
2016: 4.5M

R:
2008: 4.0M
2012: 4.2M
2016: 4.6M

Republicans have had a net gain of 600,000 voters in Florida since 2008, while Democrats have had 200,000.

[dspguy]

Originally Posted by xboxmas

Lol you are delusional. I can easily show you other states.

Look how much they have lost Pennsylvania- its even worse for them since they are actually losing Democratic voters:
*snip*

Also, its looking better for Republicans in Florida. By your logic, its turning red.
*snip*

Republicans have had a net gain of 600,000 voters in Florida since 2008, while Democrats have had 200,000.

Good for you. We are talking about Texas in the "Texas is Tied" thread. I would not say Florida is going blue due to votes in Texas. However, this would be a great discussion to have in another thread.