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All polls are accurate, but most polls don't count.
Polls with only 2 candidates don't show anything.
Declaring that the state who showed Beto the door is now tied is laughable. Texas has a Republican governor, 2 Republican senators, and 23 of 36 representatives are Republican.
The OP is whistling past the graveyard.
Yeah, It's gonna be a bloodbath according to the betting market.
Sigh. I feel like I'm going to need to keep this ready to be copy/pasted many times between now and November.
So you don't put any stock in polls likely because "Polls got it wrong in 2016!"
For your information, the betting markets had Clinton wiping the floor with Trump. You had to spend $300 to win $100 on a Clinton election win and only $36 to win $100 on a Trump election win.
In other words, the betting markets in November were more bullish on Clinton than the polls were. About 9 to 1. Polls were about 3 to 1 in favor of Clinton.
You can feel free to believe whatever pseudo-predictive measurement you want if it helps you sleep at night.
*shrug* I doubt that Texas will be turning blue this election. But I think polls can be indicators of what people are thinking at a particular moment in time.
And while again, I doubt Texas will turn blue, it puts Trump's team in the position that Hillary was in in 2016 with Wisconsin and Michigan--he either assumes Texas is safe, and risks making the same mistake she did (ignoring them), or he has to spend resources to defend it, which means less money somewhere else.
If the Texas 2020 Presidential is anything like the 2018 Texas Senate race, Rs are in for a fight. Having to put effort in to holding on to Texas by 2 means a lot of time and money will not be available for other states.
Its also possible Texas flips and the midwestern states stay R. All states and regions have voter realignments every 20 or so years. Texas is both growing quickly and seeing a younger electorate with very different demographics from the older ones. A couple of point shift in 4 years would not be uncommon. I actually think a Dem has better shot in Arizona and Georgia- but I also think Texas is more likely to go D than Ohio. 8 years ago that would have sounded like lunacy.
Do people reasonably think Biden can win? Biden in his current dementia and mental decline state?
I honestly think the percentage of people who will vote for "anyone at all other than Trump" is a core Trump hating group of the left and Democrats, maybe 25-30% on that side.
If Biden IS somehow elected, his VP will be President soon, as Biden will most likely have to step down due to advancing dementia.
This will result in a woman as President for the first time, so I think that is why the Democrats and left are drooling and so giddy about Biden winning--they are looking WAY past Biden.
Do people reasonably think Biden can win? Biden in his current dementia and mental decline state?
I honestly think the percentage of people who will vote for "anyone at all other than Trump" is a core Trump hating group of the left and Democrats, maybe 25-30% on that side.
If Biden IS somehow elected, his VP will be President soon, as Biden will most likely have to step down due to advancing dementia.
This will result in a woman as President for the first time, so I think that is why the Democrats and left are drooling and so giddy about Biden winning--they are looking WAY past Biden.
I didn't think reasonable people would elect Trump to be president and here we are. And the guy is on TV spouting nonsense almost daily and even more unhinged nonsense on Twitter. Perhaps you are irrational or even insane and what you consider reasonable is far from it. Of course you would never know the difference. Now extrapolate this to every Trump supporter.
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