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Old 05-21-2020, 08:41 AM
 
5,938 posts, read 4,700,185 times
Reputation: 4631

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ballkick View Post
Thats a pretty big miss.

And If what you say is true why were all the outlets declaring Hillary had a 90-99 percent chance of winning.
The last forecast I saw before the election was 72 to 28, Clinton over Trump. Trump's odds were better than flipping a coin twice and getting heads twice.

However, people that will forever say "Remember 2016" can use that as a security blanket. Polls have been right more than they have been wrong. If you can sleep better at night with "Remember 2016" in your dreams - then so be it.
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Old 05-21-2020, 03:36 PM
 
356 posts, read 121,640 times
Reputation: 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by dspguy View Post
The last forecast I saw before the election was 72 to 28, Clinton over Trump. Trump's odds were better than flipping a coin twice and getting heads twice.

However, people that will forever say "Remember 2016" can use that as a security blanket. Polls have been right more than they have been wrong. If you can sleep better at night with "Remember 2016" in your dreams - then so be it.
95 percent of forecasts had Hillary winning by 90 percent.

The polls weren't just wrong. They were laughably wrong. Hillary was up in just about every poll in all the swing states.

They also had Nevada wrong and Colorado wrong as well.

You're wrong because yet again they are oversampling democrats just as bad in 2020 as they were in 2016.

They also don't account for cell phones like they should.
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Old 05-21-2020, 03:38 PM
 
356 posts, read 121,640 times
Reputation: 149
dsp, the betting market certainly sees the polls as bunk.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/el...020_president/
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Old 05-21-2020, 03:42 PM
 
356 posts, read 121,640 times
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The betting market has a way better accuracy history than polls historically.

Carter was beating Reagan only a couple of weeks before the election. It was a landslide.

Even Mondale was beating Reagan at one point
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Old 05-21-2020, 04:30 PM
 
Location: Texas
38,859 posts, read 25,544,683 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ballkick View Post
The betting market has a way better accuracy history than polls historically.

Carter was beating Reagan only a couple of weeks before the election. It was a landslide.

Even Mondale was beating Reagan at one point
Every presidential election with an incumbent is a referendum on the incumbent.

1980: Carter was an unpopular prez with a sagging economy.

1984: Reagan was a popular prez with a rebounding economy.

2020: tRump is a highly unpopular prez with the worst economy in generations.

I won't bother to mention his foolish mismanagement of the pandemic.

Carry on.

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Old 05-21-2020, 04:39 PM
 
Location: Live:Downtown Phoenix, AZ/Work:Greater Los Angeles, CA
27,606 posts, read 14,610,214 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evilnewbie View Post
How can someone win when the race is over and they already lost?
Really? I didn't hear that the 2020 election had already been decided
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Old 05-21-2020, 04:43 PM
 
Location: Live:Downtown Phoenix, AZ/Work:Greater Los Angeles, CA
27,606 posts, read 14,610,214 times
Reputation: 9169
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ballkick View Post
He's not winning Arizona so it's mute.

Pennsylvania will be tough and Michigan's current climate
You don't know that. I live here, and I presume you don't. I think Biden takes AZ 52-48 or something close like that. And I'm not a Biden apologist either. I wanted Sanders
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Old 05-21-2020, 04:44 PM
 
Location: Live:Downtown Phoenix, AZ/Work:Greater Los Angeles, CA
27,606 posts, read 14,610,214 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finper View Post
There is no way Biden would win a red, gun loving , free state like Arizona. The very thought is laughable
I live here, and I think he pulls it out 51-49 or 52-48. Arizona is not as reich wing as you think it is. It just seems that way compared to California where you came from (yes, I'm familiar with you)
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Old 05-21-2020, 04:45 PM
 
Location: Live:Downtown Phoenix, AZ/Work:Greater Los Angeles, CA
27,606 posts, read 14,610,214 times
Reputation: 9169
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ballkick View Post
Huh? It's the other way around. Trump isn't losing Arizona
Want to bet?
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Old 05-21-2020, 05:11 PM
 
14,489 posts, read 6,100,100 times
Reputation: 6842
Quote:
Originally Posted by Old Gringo View Post
Every presidential election with an incumbent is a referendum on the incumbent.

1980: Carter was an unpopular prez with a sagging economy.

1984: Reagan was a popular prez with a rebounding economy.

2020: tRump is a highly unpopular prez with the worst economy in generations.

I won't bother to mention his foolish mismanagement of the pandemic.

Carry on.

The bad economy was caused by us shutting down to China's Virus.
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