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The Rodney King riots took place in one specific location, namely Los Angeles. Sure, we all saw it on TV. But, even if subconsciously, people from places not within an hour of L.A. could think to themselves that they were safe, since they were not embroiled in the mess.
But the George Floyd riots are happening everywhere, all across the country. Nearly every major city, and many minor ones, are experiencing looting and arson and violence. The only modern precedent I can think of for this situation is the riots of 1968. People all across the country feel that the danger is way too close for comfort. And I strongly suspect that their voting patterns will reflect this fear.
1968 was a wave towards law and order, and started white flight by the millions! That left the cities without a solid middle class. Cities had ritzy areas with heavy security, and other portions housing the dysfunctional underclass, with mostly a hollowed out middle class.
Law & Order became the dominant topic, which drove the suburban, middle class vote.
No matter how much they spoke in soothing tones regarding the riots in cities like Chicago that year, they did not vote in the same interests.
There’s a few obvious differences between 1968 and now:
1. Trump is an incumbent. Nixon was not. It’s harder to deflect when it all turns South on your watch.
2. Nixon could triangulate and position himself as a moderate between the more liberal Hubert Humphrey and third party candidate George Wallace. Trump is more closely playing the Wallace role, not Nixon’s.
3. The electorate is far different now. In 1968, registered voters were probably close to 90% white with about 80% being white non-college. In 2020, the white non-college is down to 42%. The suburbs are much more diverse than back then.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 06-03-2020 at 07:58 AM..
There’s a few obvious differences between 1968 and now:
1. Trump is an incumbent. Nixon was not. It’s harder to deflect when it all turns South on your watch.
2. Nixon could triangulate and position himself as a moderate between the more liberal Hubert Humphrey and third party candidate George Wallace. Trump is more closely playing the Wallace role, not Nixon’s.
3. The electorate is far different now. In 1968, registered voters were probably close to 90% white with about 80% being white non-college. In 2020, the white non-college is down to 42%. The suburbs are much more diverse than back then.
How can everyone proclaiming a repeat of 1968 not figure this one out?
How can everyone proclaiming a repeat of 1968 not figure this one out?
Because 1968 was not an anti-incumbent message. It was an anti-lawlessness message.
Suburbs turned sharply against the liberals who were , in effect, aiding and abetting the savage rioters destroying US cities, by not offering enough of a forceful, push back against the violence approach.
The drive to live in suburbs for the middle to upper-middle classes was, first and foremost, safety driven. Safety is an issue Democrats need to avoid coming front and center. This week drives it back into the swing middle to upper middle class districts, just as it did in 1968.
Its worse in some ways this year for Democrats as we have 24/7 images of their savages looting, setting fires, beating up and in some cases, killing innocent people this week, and sometimes, well past urban jungle boundaries.
Probably true. But Trump is not helping himself (or this volatile situation) by throwing gasoline on the fire with comments like "when the looting starts the shooting starts". Another opportunity for Trump to show he can act like a president (calm, responsible, mature) down the drain.
you obviously don't know what the quote means, it isn't a slur at all! It just means that the next thing people do after they start looting and things turn violent is that they are likely to start fighting & possibly shoot each other
Last edited by 68551; 06-04-2020 at 03:14 PM..
Reason: typo
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